With CC Sabathia off the market, who's next? And don't forget about the live chat.
I remember conversing with a general manager back in May, anticipating the annual trade season.
"There won't be any elite starting pitchers out there," the GM predicted. "Look at the starting pitchers who usually get traded. Kyle Lohse last year. Cory Lidle the year before. It'll be someone like that."
So now that CC Sabathia, the big kahuna of this trade market, has been dealt, what other pitchers can we expect to see for sale?
Let's take a look at the most obvious candidates, wtih pros and cons for each.
A.J. Burnett, Toronto. Pros: Probably the most talented guy left. If he gets on a roll, he can absolutely help carry a team into the postseason and beyond.Cons: He hasn't been very good this year. His personality can politely be described as "a disaster." He is quite injury-prone. And in a worst-case scenario, although it's extremely unlikely, he could decide to NOT opt out of the next two years of his contract, in which he is set to receive $12 million per season.
Paul Byrd, Cleveland. Pros: Pitched well as recently as last year. And if you need an online dentist, he's your guy. Cons: Look at his numbers this season. Yeesh. Also, that HGH stuff wouldn't play particularly well in big media markets.
Freddy Garcia. Pros: One of the better pitchers of his generation, and as a free agent, he costs only money. Cons: He's currently rehabilitating from shoulder surgery, and he should be ready to pitch in big-league games in late August. How much will he have left?
Greg Maddux, San Diego. Pros: A living legend, and a resource just to have around your pitching staff. He has pitched nowhere as poorly as his won-loss record. Cons: With a no-trade clause, he controls where he goes, which probably limits his selections to the Cubs and Dodgers (he has pitched for both teams before) and the Brewers (where his brother, Mike Maddux, is the pitching coach). He almost certainly wouldn't go to an AL team.
Kevin Millwood, Texas. Pros: He's not going to be afraid of big-game situations. Cons: He is signed through next year at $12 million per season, with a de facto vested option for 2010 based on innings pitched. That's a significant commitment for a guy who doesn't appear to be very good anymore.
Vicente Padilla, Texas. Pros: He has shown flashes of being the frontline starting pitcher that got him his current, three-year, $33.75 million deal (he's in Year 2). Cons: If Johan Santana is Exhibit A for the worthlesness of won-loss records in a season, then Padilla might be Exhibit B. If he pitched for the Mets, he might be 5-10 rather than 10-5. Furthermore, the asking price on Padilla is high because he does give you innings and sporadic competence, and he's signed through next year.
Jarrod Washburn, Seattle. Pros: Um...he's left-handed. He does pitch well against the Yankees. Cons: Signed through next year at a high price ($10.35 million) for someone who's not very good anymore.
Randy Wolf, San Diego. Pros: Has a good reputation. Cons: Hasn't pitched particularly well this year, despite working in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Extremely injury-prone.
Here is my opinion on what the Yankees should do.
Big homestand for the Mets to close things out before the All-Star break. If they can take series victories over the Giants and Rockies, then they might finally convince themselves they can make a run here.
The Mets' odds of making the playoffs, meanwhile, are up to 38 percent. The Yankees are at 6 percent.
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Comments (34)
Ken - I very much enjoyed your column today and agree with it. As you already know, I did not support Cashman's decision to enter the season with a rotation of Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Hughes and Kennedy. I though it was folly to go into a year with two rookies and a 39 year old that was fading badly. I thought Cashman should have brought in another arm, namely Kyle Lohse, who was available and who signed for "just" $4.25 million. Those early weeks of the season were upsetting. But, quiet resignation has set in and I am now not so bothered. Yes, Cashman should have brought in another arm in the off-season, but the Yankees have been competitive and I think Cashman's plan is sound.
I am convinced the emphasis on the farm system will pay off. I believe the Yankees are much better situated than the Mets for long term success.
I wouldn't make a play for any of the pitchers you listed in the blog. If the Yankees are withing WC striking distance at the end of the month, then I favor bringing in Freddy Garcia. With an average home game attendance of 52,000+, the Yanks can afford him for two months.
Looking at 2009: Cashman re-ups in October for another three years. Pettitte comes back. Moose is gone. All the other free agents are gone. The Yankees make an offer for C.C. The Yankees pass on Teixeira.
Ken why is Burnett a disaster? Examples please.
As for the save. Just bc HOF voters realize its a dumb stat, doesn't mean Phil Mushnick wont write about it on Sunday.
Ken, the Mets and Billy Wagner were lucky to win Sunday and last night. Wagner has gotten Hoffmanaitis in big games in big spots. I can see a let down tonight with the Giants having Tim Linceum on the mound.
Big series for the Yanks tonight against the Rays. I think they need to win both tonight and tomorrow.
Baseball Prospectus is OVERRATED. Who cares about that. Don't pay attention to it because they don't play the games.
A-Rod turns people off, rubs players the wrong way, yet he might go down as one of the greatest ballplayers of all time.
Jim, once again you pay more attention to the future than the present of the Yankees.
Dennis, haven't you been reading everything that Ken has been writing since March or everything that Cashman has been saying? This year is all about the future. If it wasn't, Santana would be in the Bronx. Wake up!
Baseball Prospectus does its homework and is a vital read for anyone in the industry and for fans who want to be informed.
Hey Ken.
My gastreoenterologist has advised me to stop watching Billy Wagner pitch. 'In the world of ulcers, Wagner is known as a carrier,' said my doctor.
Tonight I'll watch Kazmir tame the Yankees.
~H
Dennis, Baseball Prospectus is overrated by whom, exactly? Not by people in the baseball industry. Joe Girardi has a BP book in his office.
Richie, in 2005, the Marlins asked Burnett to leave the team after he ripped into the manager and coaching staff. This year, he ripped the Jays fans and talked publicly about how much he'd enjoy getting traded to a city that had more passion for baseball. While you could spin it positively, with the idea that he is passionate, momments like that could explode in a larger market.
Jim, I just threw Garcia onto the list. I should have before. And thanks for reading the column.
Howard, as always, you crack me up. It's not too late to hit the stand-up comedy tour, you know. I'll come see you at Dangerfield's.
Ken, baseball prosectus is overrated im my opinion. I'm sure the odds were much worse for the Yanks last year than it is right now.
You can't go much lower than a six percent chance at the playoffs. You are a hopeless romantic Dennis, but there isn't anything wrong with living in the real world. If the Yankees make it to the post-season, I will be deliriously happy. If they don't, I will understand it is a painful but necessary step, not unlike what the Red Sox endured rather recently.
I actually now remember him saying he wouldn't mind being traded to the Cubs. That is a horrible thing for a teammate to say. I'd be really pissed if one of my teammates every said he wanted to go to another team.
I was at the game last night. I love that ballpark; I go all the time -- it's beautiful, but disgracefully small.
On the drive home, I heard a lot about what a big win this was. I'm not sure about that. It's big to take three out of four from the Phillies, but the bullpen is a mess. They almost gave back a nine-run lead. And the team made all sorts of odd mistakes on the base paths.
I thought for sure Wagner was going to give it up -- it just had that type of feel to it. I'll give the Philly fans some credit: a lot of them stuck around even though the game looked like a laffer, and they were a fun bunch when their team started its comeback.
It's amazing how every pop fly in that stadium is nearly a home run. Little slap shots down the line nearly leave the ballpark. It's absolutely insane.
Wagner is known for his blown saves, but he usually reserves those for big games -- in the regular season, he's been great. So what's going on with him? Save percentage-wise, this has to be one of his all-time worse years.
I don't worry as much about the pitching as I do an aging on-field presence. The staff has been shaky for years and the bats carried them.
The Yankees will have to probably club their way into the playoffs in 2008, and with the subtraction of Damon and Matsui and the mediocre years of Cabrera and Cano - and Jeter - the Yanks offense becomes a shadow of the one that produced the post All Star Game rallies recently.
I hope public pressure does not make Cashman make a move for its own sake.
Ken should you really be including Texas pitchers right now? They aren't that far out of the wild card race and are playing better baseball right now than they have for awhile, plus with all that hitting they really can't be counted out of any games. In any case, I certainly wouldn't want Padilla or Millwood as anything but a stop gap starter.
I think AJ Burnett might be the most overrated pitcher of this decade. He really hasn't done all that much for what they pay him.
I wonder if Byrd getting caught in the hGH scandal has anything at all to do with him having a lousy season this year?
Dennis, you couldn't be more wrong about the Yankees and their BP odds. Last year, they were about 20% at this time, because their upcoming schedule was easier and their run differential was greater.
baileywalk, I recall Wags blowing some big regular-season opportunities for the Phillies in '05, including one in September when he gave up a HR to his old buddy Biggio. The Philly ballpark does play ridiculously, doesn't it?
Sorry to go off on a tangent, but did anyone watch/listen to BBTN and John Kruk's so-called "analysis" of a potential Rich Harden trade? The most important point that any junior high school student would have made but managed to elude Krukkie was: do the Cubbies have any prospects to trade with Billy Beane for a quality arm??? Or, perhaps the A's remain within reach of a division title or the wildcard with their current roster???
Ken, why do you think ESPN won't ask Keith Law or Rob Neyer to travel to Bristol once in a while -- or appear via satellite, a la Dusty? The lack of meaningful analysis on that show is appalling.
Yeah, and don't get me started about that Battle of the Bands drek! ;-)
Ken:
On the subjects of saves, last night on SNY Ron Darling said (when the game was 10-2 and they were killing time) that of Goose Gossage's 310 saves, 170, more than half, were 7 outs or more. Now that's a save!
Ken, do you think Bruce Bochy is screwing Clint Hurdle by pitching Tim Lincecum tonight against the Mets and Sunday against the Cubs so that Lincecum can't pitch in the All-Star Game?
Sandy, I'm sorry, I meant to respond to you earlier: While the Rangers are playing well, they're a long way away from a playoff spot, and I think they'd be open to trading those guys if they received a good package in return.
Dennis: I am assuming this is a joke. Obviously, a team's regular-season goals trump the All-Star Game. You know that.
Tim Redding is not a half-season rental. He's only got a little more than 3 years of service time, therefore should have at least 2 more arbitration years left.
Thanks, Hoagie. What was I thinking there? I'll delete it.
No worries! I'd say Odalis Perez is the Nationals starter more likely to be dealt.
I just saw on ESPN that the cubs are going after Harden.
I watched part of the 1977 All Star game on YES yesterday. Even though the game was in Yankee Stadium, the DH was not in effect. The uniforms of many teams were atrocious. It's really hard to believe that more than a couple of clubs could have thought such fashions were attractive. What were people thinking "back then?" Lasorda almost tripped out of his gut jogging out of the dugout during introductions. I knew he was fat, but this looked revolting.
Jim:
What, you didn't like the Astros "Rainbow" jerseys or the Padres mustard yellow threads? Everyone looked bad in 1977 and baseball was no exception.
I think we should all give Dennis a break for insisting that the yankees still will be in the playoffs. None other than NY's greatest baseball expert and Mets apologists (not to mention the biggest blowhard) Mike Lupica said the exact same thing in today's paper, and everyone knows Lupica is never wrong!! :(
Ken: I was just reading the chat from earlier today, and someone mentioned that Billy Beane might quit the A's to run a soccer team. Does Beane have a lot of knowledge and experience with soccer? That seems like a very strange move.
Jim - it was the disco era, after all! And you'll be happy to know that pictures of Lasorda have been used instead of saltpeter by our troops overseas for years!
When Dave Parker of the Pirates jogged out of the dugout my jaw dropped. I knew their uniforms was ugly, but combined with the horrible hat, etc., it was incredible. We all know about the Padres, Astros and Expos and but even the Phillies and Cubs uniforms from that year left much to be desired. Seaver got a big ovation after returning to NY following The Trade. Randolph, who struck out his first two times up almost nailed Seaver with a lined shot right at him. Sparky Anderson always looked like he was 80 years old. Pete Rose really looked full of himself (he wasn't a starter) even then.
Sandy , When Imus need his support during the Rutgers debated, Lupica said nothing, just like Tim Russert. Imus and Lupica are tight. Lupica somtimes metion the Imus ranch in his sunday column.
Jim that striped Pirate hat started a fashion fad. Everyone in the ghetto wore one and that really started the young'uns wearing baseball caps which also later turned into the backwards cap deal with attitude.
Sandy, I was the one who mentioned Beane's interest in soccer. Check out http://squawkingbaseball.com/?p=129 for the details.
Loopy is the only sportswriter who gets dressed in leiderhosen by his mother before going to work. He doesn't cover games anymore because the other sportswriters beat him up for his milk money.
What more can you say about a guy whose life ambition is to be Keith Olbermann?
Thanks JE I guess he owns a piece of it if I read the piece right. Even the blogger thinks it doesn't make any sense.
Be careful Bob, Lupica is very sensitive about bad things that are written about him. Or sportswriters who are threats to his job.
Sandy:
A short man with a short fuse...who writes sports columns that run out of material and then talk about politics and writes political columns that then veer towards sports.
He's helped make the Daily News what is is...too bad for them
As I mentioned on the chat, I don't think Billy is going to give up baseball cold-turkey. He already spends some time on the soccer team. It might be a title handoff, but Beane will still shape the A's.
The Cubs made a big trade with Billy Beane today:
The Cubs received the right-handed Harden and righty Chad Gaudin for pitcher Sean Gallagher, outfielders Matt Murton and Eric Patterson, and minor leaguer Josh Donaldson
Thanks to ESPN (where I copied and pasted this item from