Deja vu for the Mets and Yankees - and there's a live chat today
One of the most challenging components of my job is determining what each game means. Is it a turning point? A mirage? Or just a forgettable one of 162?
This very week last year, the Mets visited Philadelphia and were swept in four games. The series proved to mean everything. While the Mets rebounded by boosting their NL East lead from two games all the way back up to seven, the Phillies had gotten in their heads, and a three-game sweep of the Mets at Shea Sept. 14-16 kicked off The Collapse. Had the Mets just won one of those four games in Philly, the last two of which were decided by one run, they might have held onto win the division.
This very week last year, the Yankees welcomed the Red Sox to the Bronx and swept them in three games. The series proved to mean nothing. While the Yankees later closed within a game and a half of the Sawx in the American League East _ the sweep got them within five _ they never took over the division. And they went down relatively quietly against Cleveland in the AL Division Series, while the Red Sox won it all.
Today, we kick off those same rivalries in the same locales _ Mets at Philly for two days, and Yankees playing host to the Red Sox for three. The beauty of both matchups is that it's likely the clubs are fighting for one playoff spot. The Mets and Phillies are trailing Milwaukee by four games in the loss column in the National League wild-card race. It's NL East or bust.
While in the American League, neither the Red Sox (4 1/2 games behind Tampa Bay) nor the Yankees (9 1/2) seem like they can catch the incredible Rays in the American League East. It's wild card or bust for the game's two super powers.
The Mets, after last night's victory, have to be feeling somewhat good about themselves. They have gone 15-6 since putting Billy Wagner on the disabled list. But tonight kicks off an extremely challenging, 11-game stretch: Two in Philly, three in Miami, three in Milwaukee and three at home against the Phillies. With the way they're hitting, and the way they seem to handle adversity, I'll say they pull through all right
The Yankees, meanwhile, are coming off a three-game sweep of the Orioles in Baltimore. Can they build on that, in a way they have rarely been able to put together momentum this season? I'm sticking to my "Yankees won't make the playoffs" prediction, but they deserve credit for assuring the relevance of this series, after their season seemed in tatters last week.
Everything, or nothing, in these next three days for our two teams? I guess I'm copping out and saying, "Something, but neither everything nor nothing." Your thoughts?
The Mets are going to be pushing Pelfrey into the 200-innings stratosphere, after Pelfrey totaled 152 2/3 innings in the minors and majors in 2007. Once the game became 7-0 in the seventh last night, why not let the bullpen take over for the eighth and ninth? Yes, the bullpen is somewhat fried, but two low-leverage innings shouldn't have killed them. Besides, the bullpen will be getting reinforcements next Monday when the rosters expand to 40. But there are just four healthy, reliable starting pitchers, so why not give them a breather _ especially the youngest pitcher _ when possible?
Omar Minaya politely disagreed with me when I asked him about this post-game, and hey, Omar has been on a roll lately. So maybe my concern will prove meaningless.
The highly respected Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated has written extensively about what he calls the Year After Effect, or what happens when teams let pitchers make a huge jump in innings pitched from one season to the next. Here is one such column by Tom.
Why am I sharing such boring details with you? Because having XM is allowing me to listen to out-of-town games, which I'm loving. So driving from Shea back to the Hamptons last night, I listened to Twins-Mariners, and wow. What a tough loss for the Twins. Joe Nathan blowing a save is not much different than Mariano Rivera blowing a save. It's a shocker. And Nathan might have survived giving up a leadoff double to Adrian Beltre, if Nick Punto hadn't bobbled a Jose Lopez grounder in the ninth, which prolonged the inning and allowed the tying run to come home.
It's the kind of game that makes you wonder, "Will this be a turning point for the Twins? Or will they come right back tonight? Will it mean everything, or nothing?"
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Comments (35)
Ken, were you anywhere near Tanger Outlets on Sunday?
Pelfrey should have been pulled. That goes without saying. If his arm gets injured or "tired" they are really going to regret pushing him like this. The Mets, like many organizations, don't learn lessons easily. They blew it with Church and now are setting the stage to Pelfrey to go down. Foolish. The Yankees are frequently too cautious IMHO, but I would rather see that than the Mets rolling the dice with a young pitcher's arm.
XM is great for any baseball fan. I listen to it in my house and often prefer it to the TV.
90 wins by the Yankees now seems like a pipe dream. They would have to win at a clip that would be astonishing.
We kill teams for babying their starters. We kill them for abusing their starters. We kill teams for not letting starters finish games. We kill teams for letting starters finish games.
It's not easy dealing with pitchers.
Pelfrey only threw 108 pitches last night, so it's really not a big deal. Innings are less important than pitches thrown, especially if they weren't stressful pitches. Pelfrey has thrown around 163 innings this year. If he did in fact get to 152 last year, his target innings total would be about 182 and change. Clearly he will go over that, but probably not by a scary amount. Verducci has the threshold at 30 innings, but true abuse is when you jump 70, 80, even 100, like the Tigers did with Verlander (and are now paying the price).
I go to quite a bit of Mets games and (weirdly enough) I always end up seeing Pelfrey pitch (I saw his first complete game against Atlanta). He's very Wang-like: mostly sinkers and four-seamers, keeps it simple and effective (when he's throwing well). He's not like Chamberlain, who uncorks slider after slider.
disagree with jim. the mets made a mistake with church in allowing him to make the call the first time but they learned for that mistake and became very cautious and left the decision in the hands of the doctors.
pelfrey is 6'7 and is 24, this isn't a young pedro martinez or a tim lincecum where by virtue of stature leads you to be careful with how they are utlised. i don't blame manuel at all. pelfrey was rolling, he only threw 108 pitches and the bullpen stinks. he can't risk losing the series going into philly tonight.
this is much ado about nothing.
A concussion is a brain injury. Why would adults allow someone with a brain injury to evaluate his own condition and make the decision about his return to action? Likewise, few pitchers will ever say they are tired and want to come out of a game. Truthfully, the might not even feel tired, even though their arm is dragging.
Assuming the Mets make the playoffs, Pelfrey's innings pitched will far exceed the year-to-year growth now assumed to be the industry guideline for a young pitcher. I don't believe his height or weight is a reason to allow him to pitch a complete game in a 9-1 blow-out. Time will tell. If he goes down, I will enjoy hearing all the excuses.
I agree with Ken, foolishness was on display last night.
I get the feeling that the Mets are more worry about getting as much innings as they can out of their starters right now. While they perfer to keep Pelfrey's innings at a threshold, with Maine out for maybe the rest of the season, they are going to need him down the stretch. I would have pull Pelfrey after the 8th inning last night.
Dennis: Who will be elected president? Who will McCain pick for VP? I know all the possibilities. Give me the name.
Ken, I've gotta disagree with your slight criticism of the Mets to leave Pelfrey in last night. His final pitch count on the night was 108 which is certainly not pushing it too far. Yes, the innings are getting up there for Pelfrey, but when you can throw a CG in under 120 pitches, you're doing just fine in my book.
Also, any idea as to how long Maine has been dealing with this bone spur problem in his shoulder?
The point is why would you leave a pitcher like Pelfrey in when you are winning by 8 runs? The bullpen can't handle two innings of mop up work? When it is announced that Pelfrey has shoulder stiffness or his arm is tired what are all the proponents of a complete game going to say? Can't wait to read those posts!
Ken:
I was thinking that once Delgado hit the second home run, Pelfrey should have gotten the rest of the night off. Stokes couldn't come in and pitch? Or are they saving him for a spot start this weekend?
In the rare sports bar that has one TV, which game gets precedence tonight -- Sox/Yanks or Mets/Phils?
Many years ago I went into a restaurant during the Super Bowl. The bar area had a TV. The bartender had it tuned to a rerun of a horse show on MSG. He told customers that the Super Bowl was boring so he had the horse show on. Needless to say, he no longer works there.
Jim, I'm a independent voter. I don't sided with either party. My feeling is McCain wants Joe Lieberman as his veep, but I don't know if he will be the guy. It will either be Lieberman, Mitt Romney or Tim Pawlenty as McCain veep. At this point I have not made up mind about who I'm voting for.
Dennis, don't discount a dark horse, someone from the business community or maybe even a woman. I'm not sure McCain wants Lieberman. Romney is much safer for him and has business credentials. McCain is already strong on foreign affairs and needs someone strong on economic matters to balance the ticket. I can't see how Pawlenty would help the ticket. I'm definitely not an independent voter. Have you ever met Romney? He is impressive although he carries some negatives, too.
Ken - I concur on removing Pelfrey.
It's the Astros, it's getting to the point where there may be extra innings Mike will HAVE to pitch if the bullpen is suspect. It's not a headline game where you want to crush the opponent by getting a CG and having the headline on the back of the paper prominently display the dominance.
Omar's comment about letting talent be talent is absurd. Perhaps he should examine his own organization and find out why so many of his starting pitchers are ailing as opposed to being Mr. Macho 24/7.
--
And by the way, I am told that Ms. Michelle Obama gave ZERO to Princeton's annual giving program in 2006 during her 20th reunion year (the AG fund is used predominantly to fund scholarships like she had received, and now Princeton does not even do loans, they give grants, thanks to people who give generously - unlike her)
I do not know any details about her brother's donations, but I do not admire those who demand sacrifice witrh their words and have had successful careers built on other people's charity having deep pockets and short arms.
Romney's religion kind of scare people off while he was still in the running. He would talk about the fact that he was Mormon at every chance he had.
Michelle Obama's brother Craig talk at the DNC last night before her sister did. Craig Robinson happens to be the head coachof the Oregon State Men's Basketball program.
Meanwhile Barack is a White Sox fan and took a shot at the Cubs in a interview with Stu Scott last night on ESPN.
Jim, I was considerably east of the Outlets on Sunday. East Hampton and Amagansett. And when you contemplate my preseason predictions on the Yankees, shout the "THIRD PLACE" part and whisper the "ninety wins." ;)
Doug, not sure precisely on how long Maine has been dealing with the bone spur. I'll ask him the next time I see him.
It should be based on pitch count not innings pitched. If he had thrown 108 pitches in 7 innings of course take him out. If he's a Greg Maddux who throws 60 pitches and comes out in the sixth inning to "save his arm" and you have no bullpen to speak of to begin with, why start him? It became clear last week that Santana, Perez and Pelfrey were going to go as long as possible because the bullpen stinks and the sore-armed Maine and Pedro would go as long as five or six innings and hope for the best. We've gone through this here before, if you don't have the pitching use what you have. If a guy is pitching a good game hasn't thrown a lot of pitches, and its the 7th inning why take him out? Because you are supposed to in today's game. I don't think so.
Exactly as Sandy said. It's not about innings; it's about pitches thrown. Clearly at only 108 pitches Pelfrey was under whatever pitch-count limit they had on him. Pelfrey's ability to finish that gave is a testament to his economy on that particular night. I think we're edging toward the hyperbolic here suggesting that Pelfrey throwing 108 pitches will lead to a shoulder injury. Stop focusing on the complete game and instead look at how many pitches he threw. It was a normal workload for him, but just spread out a few innings longer because he was economical. Calm down.
I agree with Sandy that the CG was more about the fear of the bullpen screwing it up more than a pitch count syndrome.
What does that action do for the confidence (or lack thereof) of the bullpen going into the last 30 games?
I love love love it. Yes they could have taken him out and I wouldn't have had a problem. But teams practice so in they will be able to perform in game like situations. And its good that Pelfrey is getting to see the 9th inning more. In a 2-1 game when the Mets need him, he will be able to say that I've pitched the 9th before and I've succeeded. I love a pitcher that doesn't look over his shoulder. And isnt there some Blue Jay dude who always pitches 9?? This isn't the first year he's thrown a lot of CG's.
Are the Mets SOFT? I mean under Jerry Manuel, thats laughable. They play hard, they play to win, and Manuel has shown leadership and guts and has demanded as much from his players. His pitchers can go 9. He's proven that. And Bob, I think it tells the pen that they need to step it up. And I think they get that.
BTW, why is this becoming a political board???
RG - sorry, but more politics. Obama is a White Sox fan....loyal to the South Side...
http://www.suntimes.com/news/politics/obama/1126475,CST-NWS-fans26.article
Did anyone catch the Newsday mention on Fox last night? A reporter and the editor were chased down by Bill O's crew after mentioning that a serial killer had one of Bill O's books in his library.
If someone in the bullpen has to be told to step it up, they don't belong there in the first place. Were they coasting and not giving full effort? What do you do if they don't step it up? Release them?
Granted the 40 man roster expansion gives an arm or two from the minors, but if you have to base your division winning strategy on players who haven't even thrown a game in the majors in 2008,
you're asking for trouble.
Bob, Obama being a White Sox fan is ok, since its baseball. The O'Reilly stuff...not so much. I'm trying to stay out of politic talk because once I open my mouth, I will get yelled at for what I believe. So I am giving everyone today to talk wildly about politics. I will shut my mouth and hold it in. But tomorrow, I may not. I mean this is supposed to be a blog about baseball. But its just my beliefs and maybe it is supposed to be about politics as well.
And thats not to say all tangents are bad. The Mike and Mad Dog stuff and hockey and football tangents are cool with me. But politics just doesn't mix in my opinion.
Bob, I disagree with your point about someone being told to step it up doesn't belong there. I never played in the Bigs...but I've played on team sports for the past 18 or so years. And there are times you need to tell a teammate to step it up. As a Captain, one of the first things you need to know is if you have to kick or pat a guy on the ass when he's playing bad. I dont know the Mets personalities in the pen, but they've as a whole been brutal. But there aren't better options out there. So maybe they should't be out there, but the Mets are stuck with who they got till 09.
So I have no problem with Manuel managing like his starters have to go 9. I'd tell the starters that.
As for the relievers, I'd pat or kick them in the ass, depending on which one they respond to better. I love Heillman, but he's been bad this year. You probably dont have to tell him anything, because he already knows. And he's not going to throw a fit when you dont give him the ball because he knows he hasn't earned it.
I'm surprised Obama admitted he was a fan of any team. These idiots are afraid of offending even one, single voter. Look at Hillary "the Yankee fan". I think it's ok for these people to look at least like real people with rooting interests and outside interests like movies and sports etc. How many of them do we know anything about besides their political beliefs (and most of those are b.s. anyway.)
Richie, I would love to read about your political views.
Sandy, I completely agree with your point that today's politicians are afraid to offend one voter. They try to be so PC.
Bob, I agree with you on the bullpen stuff. These are major league players and shouldn't need any kick in the butt or unspoken messages about getting the job done.
By the way, did Pelfrey throw warm-ups before the 8th and 9th innings?
RG - step it up sounds too much like snap out of it. How do you do it? "You're capable of playing better"? It's like Homer Simpson in the Globex episode - "are you working hard? Could you work a little harder?"
You're correct that everyone has a different reaction to different types of "motivation" technques. I have no idea what Manuel does - nor what role mets veterans play,,,but perhaps Wagner getting DL'd actually helped the club, as he was not viewed as a positive leader by certain players?
"By the way, did Pelfrey throw warm-ups before the 8th and 9th innings?"
Between every inning. Six pitches an inning. Which means, if you want to include them, he actually threw 162 pitches. Dios Mio, call Dr. James Andrews.
He also long-tossed before the game started.
Let's hope he survives. ;)
as far as Ken's comments re upcoming Yanks/Sox in the blog....
"I guess I'm copping out and saying, "Something, but neither everything nor nothing." Your thoughts?"
0-3? break out the golf clubs
1-2? unacceptable but not unmanageable (YET)
2-1? acceptable but not optimal
3-0? Never Say Die
baileywalk: How would you react/what would you say if Manuel annouces tomorrow that Pelfrey is either going on the DL with a sore arm, going for an MRI of his shoulder/elbow or going to miss a start because his arm is tired? Just asking. It could happen.
The AP is reporting that Replay will be used by baseball beginning on Thursday with 3 series. Phillies-Cubs, Twins-A's and Ranger-Angels. Those series that will start on Thursday will have replay.
My reaction would be, "Damn, that's a tough break." But if it happened, I wouldn't think it was because Pelfrey threw 108 pitches in a complete game.
Since Ken is in the East Hampton/Amagansett area, has he gone to The Lobster Roll a/k/a Lunch. Its usually so crowded that no one goes there anymore.
But baileywalk, with a 7-0 lead, why wouldn't you want Pelfrey to have an even easier night, when you're asking so much of him the rest of the way, and lift him after 90 pitches?
Good for Pelfrey...enough with the limits. Let pitchers pitch.
Kenny D, you were "horrified"? Gimme a break. By choosing such a strong word, I'll assume you are a passionate Met fan (without the media bias of course). So did you think it was a turning point, mirage or just another game? I thought we'd get an answer but instead you went on to tell us that your family is still in the Hamptons. Good job. Now you have us on the edge of our seats.
Oh, and Romney will likely be the choice. The talking heads with all the influence liked him (and not McCain) so I think that's the call. But does it really matter when it comes to politics?
To quote George Carlin..."it's all bullsh*t and it's bad for ya"
Last night was just one of 162, Stu - neither a turning point nor an aberration.
And yes, I was horrified, because 24 hours earlier, Manuel was talking about the need to rest Pelfrey, and suddenly, Pelfrey was throwing an unnecessary complete game. I'm not a passionate Mets fan, though.
Ken if it helps him concentrate on throwing good pitches, getting batters to hit them and being economical thus getting good results why not?
I think Bob Tufts said this a while ago, keep the outcome in your own hands whenever possible. I'm sure Pelfrey has left games in the lead and wound up with no decision because the bullpen couldn't hold it. Not saying that would happen last night, but he had a good reaction to pitching a complete game, like it was something special, and the last time the fans gave him a huge ovation for coming out for the ninth. His confidence must be soaring right now.
The game moved along as well. :)