Weekend ruminations

Sorry (or perhaps, you're welcome), I just don't have it in me today for Weekend Predictions. A few things:

  • Here are my trade deadline winners and losers.

  • Here is my analysis of the Red Sox trade of, essentially, Manny Ramirez for Jason Bay.

  • Every August 1, I begin to book my hotels for the postseason, based on the current standings. Here's what the playoffs would look like, if the season ended today:

    AL
    Angels (1) vs. Red Sox (4)
    Rays (2) vs. White Sox (3)

    (Note: Yes, I know the Twins are a half-game behind the Red Sox and even in the loss column. But this is just for argument's sake.)

    NL
    Cubs (1) vs. Diamondbacks (3)
    Phillies (2) vs. Brewers (4)

    Wouldn't be too bad, right? But it's sure to change. In the NL, there are four teams (Mets, Marlins, Cardinals and Dodgers) within five games in the loss column of Milwaukee, the wild-card leader. The Dodgers, having acquired Manny Ramirez, figure to give the Diamondbacks a run, and the Mets and Marlins are on the Phillies' tail.

    In the AL, the Twins, Yankees, Rangers, Tigers, A's and Blue Jays are close enough (six games in the loss column) to harbor October fantasies. Now, granted, Oakland has conceded the season. But stranger things have happened.

  • As for the waivers trade period that we have entered, the one obvious name to keep an eye on is Jarrod Washburn. He'll clear, and therefore be eligible for the Yankees to acquire him. However, I'd expect a lot of the relievers whom the Mets wanted (Huston Street, J.J. Putz) to be claimed. I'm going to guess we don't see a lot of trade action in August. We didn't last August.

    Have a great weekend.


  • Comments (38)

    Yanks - I hope the Yanks pass on Washburn however they may have no choice after Rasner and Ponson spit the bit this weekend.

    Mets - standing pat was probably not wise at this point...the bullpen is ghastly.

    Ken - the Aug 1 preview is not bad...how would the ratings be for an All-Chicago World Series...?

    Hey Ken.

    Was Omar holed up in a cave somewhere in the Afghanistan mountains or did he simply lose his cell phone? Yes, I know the Mets didn't want to trade any of their highly regarded prospects but the team clearly needs an arm in the pen.
    Great clip of Mr. Gilmour.
    ~H

    Re: Winners and losers... Not for nothing, Ken, but don't you think the very absence of Manny Ramirez puts the Yanks at at least a draw?

    I know this is the fan in me talking, but you've been pretty harsh on the Bombers this year.

    I've been harsh on the Yankees this year, Tim, but I've also been emphatic that they have an excellent "big-picture" plan that will pay off in 2009 and beyond. That this year is worth sacrificing (which is why I don't think they should get Washburn).

    Howard, I really think Omar did well by doing nothing. To overpay for a Luis Ayala? What's that gonna get you? They have to start trusting kids like Niese.

    If the Yanks don't make the playoffs, blame the Angels because they never EVER play well against the Angels. The Mets have 2 starters right now that are question marks. One is Pedro who starts tonight. And the second is Maine who has a strain rotator cuff in his right shoulder. Don't know what to expect out of Pedro the rest of the way. And who knows how serious Maine's injury is. The pen has pen very spotty and has pitch a lot lately.
    The Mets could had used Manny, but they didn't have the prospects to get him. They are lucky that the Phillies or Marlins didn't get Manny, otherwise the Mets would have been in trouble.
    Nothing exciting will happen as far as trades are concern in August. I'll be surprise if any deal impact a team during the wavier deadline.

    I have no doubt whatsover that if either Ponson or Rasner bombs again, Kennedy will be called up. He is pitching much better in AAA, getting ahead on counts, throwing less pitchers and hitting his spots. He just might have learned his lesson, attitude wise.

    Pettitte's ERA went up .42 last night. That's a pretty huge jump for this point in a season.

    I agree with Ken on the Mets. You can't do a deal for the sake of a deal. It has to make sense. The Mets have botched a lot of decisions in the past 4-5 years. It helped get them in this jam. Sometimes the medicine doesn't taste very good, but it's necessary.

    Ken, add LoDuca's contract with the Nationals as one of the worst. Although it was only for one year and $5 million, he produced just 12 RBIs before being released yesterday.

    Ken

    I'm still concerned about the Mets outfield situation, but more defensively than offensively. I love Endy's glove but after him the rest are infielders playing outfield (Tatis, Anderson, Evans, Easley). Even if Church makes it back (fingers crossed), I'd still like them to get a legitimate outfielder, even if it's just an insurance policy.

    So having said that, are there any waiver wire candidates that fit the bill? I'm assuming Pierre makes too much money, but someone like Marlon Byrd, maybe? Is Joe Orsulak available?

    And on a completely random note, do you see the Marlins picking up LoDuca? I know they're looking for a catcher.

    Jhonny Nunez, the guy the Yankees got from the Nationals for Gonzalez is interesting. He’s 22, a right hander and had a 1.13 ERA in five games at the AA level at the time of the deal. In 8 innings, he gave up 9 hits, stuck out 8 and walked 6 for a WHIP of 1.88.

    Earlier in the year in Class A,Nunez was a starter, going 2-8 with a 5.22 ERA. He started 17 of 21 games there. In 81 innings, he gave up 88 hits, but only 21 walks on that level and struck out 82 with a WHIP of 1.35.

    Come on, Ken, the Yankees are one of the losers at the trading deadline? They got a right-handed power bat and a lefthanded reliever (which everyone in baseball was trying to get) for a bunch of players they could surrender without any regret. I know you hate the Pudge trade, but there's no way the Pudge trade overshadows the positive Nady/Marte deal. Many teams wanted Nady and Marte and the Yankees got them for a deal that didn't hurt at all. I would say that makes them winners, especially since in all honesty I think Veras and Edwar can handle that eighth inning just as well as Farnsworth did. I thought I was the only Farnsworth fan in New York. I guess he had two.

    Manny was the Boston DH in 1/3 of his games played. Let's see how he holds up in the field every night. Let's also see if the Dodgers let him continue to wear a uniform two times too big and have hair 3/4 of the way down his back.

    According to Tyler Kepner in today's NYT, Seattle wanted a quality young player from the Yankees for Washburn "like Mark Melancon, Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner."

    Kind of a weird list of players there. Melancon is an 'A' prospect who just got to AAA and has matched all of the lofty expectations people had of him. Melky hasn't hit much in the big leagues, but provides good defense and is a part of this team. Gardner is -- well, Gardner is someone who will forever be called "scrappy" and looked overmatched on the big-league level. He has great speed, decent range and a lousy arm. I always thought of him as a fourth outfielder myself. So Melancon is legit, then it's a big drop to Melky (who the Yankees can't get rid of because they don't have a real replacement) and then an even further drop to Gardner.

    I am not fuming over Omar's decision to stand pat in principle, Ken, but his inability to produce a quality farm system may have contributed to his decision not to make any moves.

    You rate the Dodgers as the big winners in the deadline deals, but again, that depends on whether Torre plays Manny/Kemp/Ethier play every day. Judging by Torre's lineups of the past several games, I am not as confident as you that he will go along with that script. (He appeared to be rotating his outfielders.)

    Also, the Dodgers now sport the leakiest left side of the infield -- and outfield -- in the majors. Chavez Ravine is nowhere near as forgiving to left fielders as Fenway.

    Did the Yankees really sign Victor Zambrano to a minor league deal? Will Cashman now bring in Rick Peterson to be his AAA pitching coach?

    We all have read for many months about Cashman's "plan." He has been restocking the farm system, refusing the temptation to trade the core group even when proven players are dangled in front of him and continuing to pay over slot to make sure the Yankees get their men. I have heard and read nothing about Omar having a similar plan. I did hear Fred Wilpon several months ago angrily stating the Mets didn't have a lousy farm system and that they have great young players. I don't know if he actually believes that or if he was trying to convince everyone else. Sort of like the alcoholic that can't admit he has a problem. How can the problem ever be fixed?

    Fortunately for Torre, the NL West is awful.

    JE, yes Zambrano is in the fold. He threw 46 pitches the other day in his second simulated game in Tampa. Eric Milton threw 35 pitches on Tuesday in his first simulated game.

    Let's give Peterson an hour this time to fix him. Do you think the guy regrets making that comment? Sort of like Jerry Ford when he said in the debate with Carter that Eastern Europe is not under Soviet domination. Once the words get out, you can't erase them from memories.

    I guess Zambrano is "officially" signed now, but he's been rehabbing in Tampa for over a month.

    Think about it, Jim: President Ford's greatest strength in the '76 presidential campaign was his experience. Even though he was not nearly as knowledgeable as Nixon on foreign policy, he was considered very capable and had Secretary of State Kissinger by his side.

    In contrast, Governor Carter was inexperienced, his submarine service notwithstanding, and thought to be hopelessly naive in much of his thinking.

    Ford's blunder wasn't what he said. It was Ford's dogged refusal to clarify the asinine statement for several days that eliminated much of the experience advantage. (Compare: Senator McCain slipped up while making comments about Iraq on an overseas trip that he quickly corrected. The remark in question was forgotten within 24 hours.)

    Manny will be in the lineup for the Dodgers no matter what because they need his bat. So its actually 4 players for 2 spots between Juan Pierre, Andruw Jones, Andre Ethier and Matt Kemp.

    JE, you are right. Even in the debate, which was the second between the two and the one about foreign policy, he dug himself a deeper hole when asked a follow-up question by the stunned Max Frankel and kept it up, like you said, for several more days. The guy was certainly stubborn.

    The original statement was: "There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe and there never will be under a Ford administration."

    It reinforced the notion that Ford was a bumbler, IMHO. I couldn't vote in that election, but just two days before election day I got an early morning phone call from a friend who asked if I wanted to go to a speech/rally a few hours later on Long Island for Ford. It was held at a huge catering facility then known as the Colonie Hill. I ended up in the second row, directly in front of the podium. Ford relentlessly trashed Carter. When it was over, Ford came down and walked along the front row shaking hands. I stepped up and shook the President's hand. It was cool. I remember it was like shaking hands with a first baseman's mitt. He hand was gigantic.

    That's a great story, Jim! You may wish to read NY Daily News' Tom DeFrank's book, "Write It When I'm Gone." It describes Ford in ways that the public never knew. It is amazing that the guy ended up being lampooned by Chevy Chase and others as a bumbler and stumbler, and yet, he was almost certainly the most gifted athlete ever to occupy the White House.

    Dennis, I agree that Torre will play Manny every day, but sitting Kemp and Ethier more than once a month would hamper the Dodger offense for no good reason. That's what we have to watch.

    Ken, I haven't been able to get to your stories on the website. Newsday says there are technical difficulties when trying to access those articles.

    As much as McCain has to run a perfect campaign to win this election due to the incompetence currently there that belongs to his party, so did Ford in order to overcome his pardon of Nixon and Nixon and Agnew themselves. Ford failed because of one remark, the rest is pretty much history.
    JE: As far as Torre not using young guys, Lomey, Russell Martin and Kemp, not to mention Ethier are all ( or should be) regulars and future all-stars. Then there were Jeter, Melky, Mariano, and Posada. When it comes to the Dodgers now outfield, he is forced to use Andruw Jones because they overpaid for him. What you are looking at there is, Colletti thought he was worth $15 million a year (when nobody else wanted him) and JD Drew wasn't. I have come to the conclusion that Colletti might be the worst GM in baseball and that's saying a lot considering Jim Bowden and Ed Wade are working at the same time.

    Dennis the Yankees don't play well against the Angels because they are the better team. They just wiped out the Red Sox. I fully expect the Angels to win 3 out of 4 this weekend.

    While the pardon certainly caused problems for Ford, it would have been even worse for him and the GOP if the "Nixon problem" had been hanging around for a coupe years. He knew that and did what he had to do, quickly taking care of it and dealing with the consequences, which were better than the alternative.

    According to the Labor Dept. 51,000 jobs were completely eliminated in July and 75,000 people were laid off. Why weren't Colletti, Bowden and Wade among this group?

    I hear you, Sandy, but my guess is that Torre will also give Juan Pierre way too much playing time. And, despite Coletti's awful decision-making, I cannot imagine that Torre is being compelled to play anyone because of the size of their contract. Jones has been given more than enough plate appearances to prove that he is nothing more than a defensive replacement. If Torre continues to play him or Pierre more than once every ten games, then Dodger fans should be appalled.

    Naturally, I agree with you regarding Wade and, yes, Bowden. As a Nats season ticket holder (yet still a diehard Mets fan), I cannot fathom the Lerners and Kasten keeping the guy around beyond this season.

    I think Tim complained about ESPN's coverage of the draft deadline. Here is a Deadspin commentary about the WWL's uselessness: http://deadspin.com/5031891/the-day-where-the-dodgers-ruined-everyones-deadline

    Sandy, the Yanks never play well against the Angels, even when they won 4 out of 5 World cahmpionships in '96, '98,'99 and 2000. With Torre as the manager, the Yanks were under .500 against the Angels. Its not just this year. This go back to when Torre became the manager of the Yanks.
    JE, you are a diehard Mets fan, yet you pay season tickets for the Nationals. Anyone in your family is a Nationals fan?
    I hope to god Hillary Clinton is not Barack Obama's running mate. I wouldn't want my running mate to be someone I compete against for the nomination.

    Ken, in one day we have now touched on Nixon, Ford, Carter, foreign policy, public policy, "the pardon," Obama, H. Clinton, presidential debates, etc. Is there any other blog in America that covers these things while at the same time dissecting trade deadline moves?

    Dennis, my mother and father were not too thrilled that I would sit in front of the "idiot box" and "watch people chase balls." My dad remains convinced that Richard Nixon would have been a better president had he spent less time going to baseball games. (Yes, ditto for how he feels about W.) In any event, I'm a Brooklyn native who moved down here in '91. (The time to really hate this town is now, during the humidity -- and Redskins training camp.)

    I really wonder if Nixon ever understood the game. He was a pretty stiff guy. I have read a half dozen biographies about him. The stories about what he did in WWII and how he lived during law school at Duke are quite interesting.

    My father grew up in Brooklyn but loved the NY Giants. He was always a NL fan, but today he usually chooses the Yankee game over the Mets.

    Earlier this season, W went on an ESPN Sunday night telecast. John Miller asked him, if he were back building a team, who would be the pitcher and position player that he would built the club around. I nearly fell off the sofa when the President replied, "Halladay" and "Utley". After all, these guys are among the best at their position and not past their prime, but certainly not really household names.

    I was impressed -- for about two minutes. Then it hit me: how does the President of the United States have time to know about these guys when there are important foreign policy/national security agenda items that require a little more attention?!?

    A Brooklyn boy who rooted for the Giants? He must have been one tough kid!

    20 years in the US Navy as a Chief and later the supervisor of employee benefits for his company. His ship was hit by a kamikaze plane and about 1/3 of the crew died, including the captain. He was badly burned. The ship was in the Pacific theater and even involved in D-Day, but he never really talks about it. His father was a Dodgers fan.

    The White House probably asked in advance for a list of questions that might be asked to make sure the president had answers. This is typically done. Either Bush is really up on this stuff or he was prepped well.

    Little to nothing that this White House has done since the summer of 2005 has been done well so I have to believe that the President is spending more and more time with The Hardball Times.

    Add Congress to that, definitely since Jan. 2007 and we will agree.

    Both Bush and Congress approval ratings are under 30%. The Democratics, led by Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid, have done absoutely nothing since they took control of Congress. They made Bush look like Ronald Reagan for god sakes. The government is a mess right now. Were see if McCain or Obama can do something about it. I do think Obama being a black man as a candidate for President of the United States will either help or hurt his chances.

    I've thought a lot about it and think that if the Yankees fail to make the playoffs, they should not resign Giambi, Abreu or bring back Mussina. They also shouldn't retain I-Rod. As far as exercising Marte's option - let's wait and see what he contributes. Although the three veterans that I mentioned have all made contributions this year, I believe the team is at a crossroads and needs to not only get younger, but change the mix. Bring back Pettitte. Obviously jettison Ponson.

    Until Posada is ready to catch, use Molina, who is under contract and bring in a veteran for the first half of the season, similar to what they did this year. I'd like to see Hughes and Kennedy in the rotation, along with Pettitte, Wang and Chamberlain. I also wouldn't mind seeing Melancon and maybe a mid-season call up for Austin Jackson. The oldfield would be Damon, Cabrera, Nady, Matsui (when he can play it) and a reserve. First base needs to be filled, preferably as part of a situation that will allow Posada to play several dozen games there.

    I have nothing against Girardi's staff, but Meacham is a disaster at third. I-Rod running home on the ball hit back to the pitcher was ridiculous. There have been many mistakes this year. If Bobby returns at third, I will be shocked. Shocked.

    For the record, Jim, "Anonymous" was me. (I had two meetings and a happy hour cocktail in the interim.) And, yes, I agree about Congress!

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