Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

Ken...the Yankees worst PR nightmare...Mets vs Dodgers in NLDS at Shea !

Oops ! Anonymous was Poppy !

Ken, I agree that the Brew Crew may be running low on suds, but I would rather pitch Sabathia on less rest than entrust today's game to anyone else on that roster with normal rest. (Yes, I know that Suppan was working on short rest yesterday.)

If I am not mistaken, only one of those teams listed in the BP article actually won the World Series -- Chicago in '05. It has got to make one think that the postseason Halos will be a bit more vulnerable than your average dominant team, having to rely on pulling out more close victories than beating opponents to a pulp.

On the other hand, it would be interesting to examine the Pythag record since Teixeira arrived. After all, it will be that team that sinks or swims in October, not the one before the trade.

Thanks for the donations link, Ken. Just curious: why was donuts the currency of choice? Were you getting sick of strudel? ;-)

Here's the origin of the donut bet, JE. Just go through all of the comments:

http://blogs.trb.com/sports/baseball/blog/2008/02/roger_clemens_should_pitch_for.html

And good question on Teixeira/Angels. That would be good to know. I wonder if Elias could easily dig that up...

As a Yankee fan it doesn't matter to me at all if the Mets make the playoffs or if Torre's Dodgers make it or if they play each other. Torre wasn't the guy for the NYY this year. He had a good run, but a change was needed, especially with a move toward youth. The NL is certainly weaker than the AL so Torre's success in the big picture of whether it was right to let him go is meaningless.

So many things went wrong for the Yankees this year, but they still have a winning record. Girardi deserves credit for that. Injuries aren't an excuse, they are a fact and it was devastating to lose Posada's offense and Wang's pitching, throw in all other injuries, which were substantial and then add in Cano's horrible April and May and Pettitte's disastrous second half, and it is a miracle the Yankees are even where they are now.

The Yanks would be in the race right now if Torre was still the manager. No offensive to Girardi, but the Yanks would not be accused of mailing in the season like one veteran Yankee said a couple of weeks ago under Torre.
Last sunday the Brewers didn't consider pitching Sabathia against the Phillies in the doubleheader on short rest. Today there pitching Sabathia on short rest against the Reds. A desperate move by the Brewers to keep their playoff hopes alive.
Looking at the BP, The Yanks in '04 score almost 900 runs at 897 and give up 808. The '05 White Sox score 741 and gave up 645. What's the difference? The '05 White Sox had better starting pitching than the '04 Yanks, which we saw fall apart. And the 2008 Angels have better starting pitching than the '04 Yanks.
The Yankees fan worst nightmare would be Mets-Red Sox in the World Series. Like in '86, that would put a Yankees fan in a no-win situation.
Ken, I know the Yanks want Joba to be a starting pitcher. But let's say at the start of the season Mariano Rivera hurts his arm and is out for the season. Who then becomes the closer? If Rivera goes down for the year next year it has to be Joba.

Sorry, Dennis, I know you've asked this question a few times. A frontline starting pitcher is more valuable than a closer. It's not even close. So no, Joba would likely not be the closer. Who becomes the closer? It depends who's in the Yankees' bullpen at that point. Mark Melancon? Jose Veras?

I completely disagree, Dennis. Any player or any reporter can say anything they want, but it doesn't make it true. If Torre was the manager, there still would have been injuries to Jeter, A-Rod, Giambi, Posada, Damon, Wang, Bruney and Matsui. Pettitte still would have had a poor second half. Cano still would have been lousy in April and May. Cano had a smirk on his face for three years under Torre. He was somewhat inconsistent in the field. That's why they put Bowa on him. I believe Torre would have continued his mismanagement of the bullpen and we would have seen the relief corps dragging. Notice, Mo didn't have his usual tired arm this August. In fact, no one's arm fell off, as frequently happened under Joe.

Maybe it is something that comes with maturity, but years ago it would have bothered me that the Mets were in the post-season, or Boston and not the Yankees, but it doesn't faze me in the least. It's a product of injuries, allowing contracts to expire and working youth onto the roster. You can't have it every way.

It is unfair to compare Girardi to a manager with two or three decades of experience. But, he did a pretty decent job and is growing in the position. I am happy it is the manager and not Joe Torre. No second guessing by me.

Ken, I dont think this team misses his professionalism. Right now they are a pretty professional team. Earlier in the season I dont think they were. But do you think Glavine would have made a difference? I dont think he would have.

And I normally agree with you on everything Joba. But I'm not sure you're right (and I'm not sure you're wrong) on the value of a great closer. I think finding a world class amazing closer is actually harder to find than a starter.

If the Mets traded Santana for Riveria, where do you think the Mets would be in the standings??? Probably about where they are now is my guess. But I think they'd have a few more wins. Though to counter that point, most teams dont blow as many games with their pen as the Mets have this year...so my example may be extreme.

Dennis - I can't agree with about Torre....the Wang injury was probably the straw that broke the camel's back. The off-season decision to go with young arms meant that everything else had to go off without a hitch and that was wishful thinking.

Glavine was on the DL all year, what was to miss. Look at what he did when he was able to pitch--not much.
Dennis is right, the worst nightmare for a Yankees fan is a Red Sox-Mets World Series. It comes under the category--who gives a crap? I don't want to see either team be successful or deal with their fan base when they do become successful because they are all intolerable. I have no problem with Dodgers-Mets because they way the Dodgers and Mets are playing now, the Dodgers win the series and face either the Cubs (who I will root for the Dodgers against) or the Phigting Phils.
Dennis is wrong about Torre doing better with this team. With all the injuries and lack of production this year no manager could have done much better, and may have done worse than what the Yankees have done this season. Considering the starting rotation has been an absolute mess all year to be in third place several gaes over .500 is probably about as much as you can expect.

Richie, you made a wrong inference! ;) Regarding Glavine and his professionalism, all I meant was they miss Glavine as a person, but not so much as a pitcher. I agree, this is a very professional team right now.

And notice, on Joba, I wrote "frontline starting pitcher." If the Mets traded Santana for Rivera, I think they'd considerably worse. Shoot, most of the leads the Mets have blown late, have come when Santana was pitching. If someone else is pitching, they might not have those leads to blow.

Santana has thrown 217.1 IP, Rivera 66.1 IP. That's a 151-IP advantage for Santana - almost 17 whole games worth. That's why Santana is making $22 million a year, and Rivera $15 million.

I agree completely on the Santana - Rivera analysis. You put it in crystal clear focus, Ken. Good job. The numbers also explain why K-Rod isn't worth much more than $15 million per.

Fox is going to want the Cubs in the World Series this year out of the NL. The possibly matchups with the Cubs in it would be:
Cubs-Red Sox
Cubs-Rays
Cubs-Angels
Cubs-White Sox
Cubs-Twins
A Cubs-Red Sox match-up would be the best matchup because both teams have great fan bases. The problem is the Red Sox already have won 2 WS. If the Red Sox haven't won yet, then it would have make the matchup interesting. Cubs-White Sox would be like Yankees-Mets in 2000. 2 teams from the same city playing in the WS and nobody will care about it. Cubs-Twins will have some interest but not much. Cubs-Angels will definitely have some interest and Cubs-Rays also because of the rise of the Rays.

Any WS with the Cubs in it will interest any fan since they haven't won anything since 1908. Fox would even be satisfied with Twins or Rays vs. Cubs because the Cubs have a nationwide fandom and automatically would draw good ratings no matter who they play.
The Yankees still have an outside shot at winning 90 games, only for the Yankees would 90 wins be looked at as a lousy season.And the manager be looked at as a failure.

Dennis, you strongly believe that the Yankees would have done better with Torre at the helm this year. Jim strongly disagrees.

Here's a different question then: how do you rate Torre's handling of the Dodgers? How much credit should he receive for his team being in first place?

Joe Torre deserves credit for the job he is doing with the Dodgers. BUT, without Manny Ramirez, LA wouldn't be going anywhere.

I wanted Don Mattingly to be named the manager. But, in retrospect, I realize how wrong I was. Girardi was the right man for the job, even if the results aren't what us fans wanted.

Can you imagine the mess there would have been if Torre had accepted the Yankees offer last fall and the team would have missed the playoffs and thus Joe's contract wouldn't have vested for 2009? Joe and his buddies in the media would have put the blame on all the injuries, said without Joe the club would have been sub .500 and proclaimed that it was only fair that Joe open the new Yankee Stadium. It would have been a disaster. The Yankee brass was right to pull the plug last fall.

Robinson Cano comes up with the game winning hit in the bottom of the 9th as the Yankees win, 1-0. I love it. Cano has many more big hits in that bat. His smile was wide today.

Did anyone predict Hughes and Kennedy would be awful and have no wins combined? No. Wang getting hurt running the bases was one of those deals where you never see it coming, The offense was suppose to carry this team and it hit like garbage. This team is playing tight under Girardi, while under Torre they seem more relax. I not saying that the Yanks would make the playoffs this year under Torre, but they would not be playing out the string right now.
Jim, Torre's Dodgers have gotten a big boost form Manny. But let's face it, the D'Backs did help the Dodgers cause by falling apart down the stretch. For a team like the D'Backs that has Webb and Haren on their team, to fall apart like the D'Backs have is crazy.

You can call me the Infer King!
How important do you think a closer is Ken? I would normally agree that I'd rather have Santana than Mo, but how important has Mo been to the Yanks? In other words, how many World Series and other series would they have lost if they had a regular closer? Would they have the same regular season dominance??

I dont know if they win the 1996 World Series. Obviously in 97 he didn't get the job done. In 98 I could have closed, but still...he made it so dominant. 1999 I dont think Riveria was all that much needed. And in 2000, I think they may have had issues had he not been there.

After that, he still was great pretty much. Some of those playoff series they may have lost without him. Though some people do forget that he has lost two huge series when he had the lead in the 9th...the 01 World Series and the 04 ALCS.

Jim, my view is that Torre has not done much for LA, other than star in an amusing State Farm commercial. ("What do you think of my screenplay?")

When the Dodgers were acting lifeless in Philly and DC -- and that was with Manny on the team! -- Torre's boosters were strangely quiet. Torre had guided the team to an unremarkable 54-54 record in a lousy division. Today, they are only six games above .500.

And let's not get into the manager's propensity to wear out certain relief pitchers. According to this post, Cory Wade may be next!

http://www.firenedcollettinow.com/2008/09/will-cory-wade-become-joe-torres-new.html

Ken, remember what a big deal I made about the Mets getting stuck with New Orleans as the club's AAA affiliate? Well, it appears that Buffalo will be the next AAA destination.

http://www.buffalonews.com/sports/story/443565.html

I had meant to say, "BEFORE MANNY ARRIVED, Torre had guided the team to an unremarkable 54-54 record in a lousy division." My bad.

I did a quick check on AAA affiliate musical chairs and can't quite figure out where the Blue Jays will play next year. With the Tribe heading to Columbus, the Nats to Syracuse, Marlins to New Orleans, and Dodgers to Albuquerque, does that mean the Jays will have to go to Vegas?

On a related note, I find it odd that Albany has not had AA representation since the Yankees left after the '94 season.

Here is an interesting piece on the subject: http://www.dailygazette.com/news/2008/aug/31/0831_ripcdi/

Sounds like the Mets Triple AAA team next year will be in Buffalo, althought not confirm yet.

Richie, I think a closer is extremely important, BUT it's not as important as an ace starter. And it's far easier to find a top-notch closer than it is to find a top-notch starter. You mention Rivera; he's been amazing. Slam-dunk Hall of Famer. And even so, you can point to him for blowing saves in three series-clinching situations ('97 ALDS, '01 World Series and '04 ALCS) that led to the Yankees losing those series.

Ken,

Do you see any chance of CC sticking with the Brew Crew? With the way they've overworked him, I feel like it'd be the last place he'd want to sign. I know Milwaukee wants to make the postseason badly, but it just doesn't seem right to push him as hard as they have.

Didja talk to Maine yet?

Dennis, you watch or listen to all the Yankee games so you know what one of the main offensive problems has been this year. You have mentioned many times that the Yankee offense isn't what it was expected to be, but never cite the most obvious reason: Jorge Posada drove in 90 runs in 2007. This year he is injured and only has 22 RBIs. Hideki Matsui drove in 103 runs in 2007. This year he has been limited to 45 RBIs. Add Melky, who went from 73 to 36 and you can see what the problem is. Is this Girardi's fault? Is it anyone's fault?

Concerning the D-backs demise as the reason for Torre's Dodgers residing in first place - I didn't want to cite this earlier since you seemed to be applauding Joe, but by bringing up Arizona you are partially making my case. Joe deserves credit for his work with the team, but let's not get carried away.

Would the Yankees be in the playoffs under Torre? Not unless he could pitch and hit.

Doug, this is when you do push CC. Plus, if he's not going to sign with them...what do they really have to lose?

As for the Brewers, I watched the vast majority of this game,a nd they look DONE. Cameron has killed them twice. Freaking Micah Owings! I wonder if he ever thought of just giving pitching up.

The thing about the Brewres is, they got plenty of hits today but none of them clutch. Plus their 3rd basecoach is awful. (Was Sveum the 3B coach??) Because he sent the slow Fielder and he was out by a mile, and then stopped Weeks for some reason when Weeks most likely would have scored.

Was he the 3b coach?

And as for closers Ken...I can name you 15 great starters over the last 10 years. I can name you two great closers, and one of them stinks when it matters most. Mo and Hoffman. Obviously there are five starters per team and one closer, but still...I think its pretty hard to find greatness in closers. Are you voting for Hoffman in the HOF?

Ken, did you ever interview Art Fowler? I know he was essentially before your time but I had to ask the question.

CC has too many innings in his arm and he is out of shape. The Yankees should limit any offer to no more than four years, and even that is scary.

Doug, no shot that CC stays in Milwaukee. Unless he accepts their arbitration offer.

I was going to save this as a surprise for later, but...I did speak to Maine. He said, "I felt it for a couple of months. At first, I thought it was just normal aches and pains." It intensified during his July 23 start against the Phillies at home, and it was his next start, July 28 at Florida, when he had to be lifted.

Richie, Sveum was the Brewers' third-base coach, and I don't know about Hoffman and the Hall. Re: the closers' conversation, I think we're not connecting, which has happened before ;) The bottom line is, I feel strongly that a top-flight starting pitcher is more valuable than a top-flight closer. Look at Rivera this year - he's having an outstanding season, but there just weren't enough leads for him to protect. Whereas someone like Santana puts your team in an excellent position to win once every five games.

Jim, I never interviewed or met Art Fowler.

Ken, your point about Rivera being on top of his game this year but the Yankees still missing the playoffs proves your point. Starting pitching is worth its weight in gold. It's another reason why Joba belongs in the rotation, bot the bullpen. Posada and Francesa should stop talking about it.

Art Fowler was a real character and besides being Martin's drinking buddy, he did know pitching and the game.

Ken, we are connecting...I understand your point. And for the most part I think I agree with it. I'm leaning that way. But I think the 2008 Mets are the exception. In my opinion (I hate...yes hate when someone says IMHO...the H is meaningless...of course you're being honest) but in my opinion the Mets would be better off with Mo than Santana THIS year. But I totally could see an argument the other way.

Hoffman will definitely get in. I'm not sure he should either.

The Brewers should have pinch hit Cameron in the 9th. He looks lost tonight. That guy Weeks looks like my type of player, though he misread a double in which he should have scored from first.

Cordero vs. Fielder with the bases loaded and the Brewers season close to being on the line. My prediction is a pop out.

He struck out. I feel like Dennis delivering the news haha!!

The "H" is for "humble" as in you aren't trying to be a know-it-all and are acknowledging you might be wrong.

Let's look at it this way--a closer is only important if you have good starting pitching that is able to get you to a closer.

It's somewhat ironic that Jeter injured his hand today and might not be able to play in the last ever game at the real Yankee Stadium since he is the symbol of what the Yankees are supposed to be all about the last decade or so.

Wow...I had no idea about the H!! Well...I guess it is possible that I can be wrong about somethings!! Nah.

Best line in Sports broadcastng history. TheBraves player barely beat out a grounder to first that Delgado fielded. They called him out but he was safe.

Darling says, "That looks like what would have happened if Buckner fielded the ball."

then Cohen and Hernandez saaid the game was tied and complained that everyone thought the Mets would have lost.
I get into arguments with people all the time. They say the Mets were losing I say it was tied. I asked who scored and they say Ray Knight. I then ask did his run count as two? They look befuddled.

Jeter is going to play tomorrow night. I heard on the news that the hand injury is not serious.
Hoffman will get in because he is a compiler who is now the all-time saves leader.
Ken, Michigan didn't play today, so you don't have to worry about me giving a score on Michigan today.

Richie G.,

I understand that you're going to push your ace a bit harder in a playoff race in September, but the Brewers have just seemed downright irresponsible with how they keep having him toss inning after inning. Obviously they wouldn't have anything to lose directly, but they'd certainly lose face in the eyes of the league if next season CC gets hurt from being pushed too much.

Ken,

I really appreciate you asking Maine my question, I've never been in indirect contact with a big-leaguer, pretty cool. It confirms my suspicions that Maine had been dealing with it for a while. It really worries me because it looked like he had been trying to compensate for it, which can lead to even further (and perhaps worse) injuries.

Also, just curious, when you do stuff like that, do you ask the players the questions as if it's your own query or do you let them know that someone from your blog wants to know? It's very cool to be able to use the technological resources of the 21st century, I sure bet fans back in the 50s or 60s would have liked to ask players on their teams questions.

Doug, I hope you don't think less of me, but I just asked him as if it was my own question. It's really just a matter of efficiency. To have to explain, "Someone from my blog wants to know..." takes up extra time, rather than just firing away with the question.

Doug good points on how the league will view the Brewers and being able to ask players questions through blogs.

But I think CC isn't being overworked. I think this generation is a little too high on pitch counts sometimes.

Ken,

You certainly haven't lost any face in my book. I was just wondering as to how you ask the players; I wonder how they'd react to you saying that the question came from someone from your blog. Maine seems like that kinda guy who would be amused by it. Also, any chance you're going to be at Shea for Monday's game vs. the Cubs or Friday's game vs. the Marlins? I believe I'm going to be at both.

Richie G.,

I agree that my generation is a bit too focused on pitch counts, but there is something to be said about the fact that CC leads the NL in complete games when he got traded more than halfway through the season...

I'm scheduled to be at Shea on Friday, Doug. E-mail me at kdavidoff@newsday.com and let me know where you're sitting.

Doug one time Bart Simpson was running for class president. Martin was his opponent. They both brought the same sign to plead their case. "A vote for Bart is a vote for anarchy."

I think its a credit to CC and the Brewers that CC leads the league in complete games. And I think its a telling sign in a bad way for the rest of the managers that he does.

On another note, I am psyched....I had to say Goodbye to me great friend Shea. Monday I am going with my 8-year-old Nephew/Godson. They play the Cubs. I really hope they win.