The Billy Wagner news
Worst-case scenario for Billy Wagner and the Mets, so now what?
This year: Status quo, obviously. Look, it's easy to sound the doomsday alarm, but the Mets are 22-10 since they put Wagner on the disabled list August 4. In that time, Luis Ayala (5), Aaron Heilman (3), Pedro Feliciano (1), Scott Schoeneweis (1) and Brian Stokes (1) have compiled saves. Of those 10 losses, five can be blamed on the bullpen, with alternate degrees of accuracy: This, this, this, this and this.
If they finish out the season with the same, very impressive .688 winning percentage that they've had since they scratched Wagner, they'd go 13-6 in their final 19 games, giving them an overall record of 93-69. The Phillies would have to go 15-4 in the same period to end the season tied.
And then, if the Mets held off the Phillies and advanced to the postseason, they'd be trying to duplicate what the 2006 Cardinals pulled off: A World Series title with a "making this up as we go along" bullpen. Adam Wainwright had three career saves entering that '06 postseason, and yet Mets fans will never forget him.
I'm sticking with my preseason prediction: Mets win it all. In this improbable season, why not? Besides, as Anthony Rieber points out here, it can't be denied that Wagner had a tendency to blow saves at inopportune moments, anyway.
Next year: What the heck, sign K-Rod. If John Maine's offseason surgery is as simple as the Mets are making it out to be, then the Mets have a strong front three next year of Johan Santana, Maine and Mike Pelfrey in their starting rotation. They want to give Jon Niese a chance. And then they need to bring in some veterans, maybe even Pedro Martinez on a low base salary with incentives. To spend big money on free-agent starting pitchers _ Oliver Perez? CC Sabathia? A.J. Burnett _ is a questionable strategy.
I'm all into the new school, "Closers are made, not born" mentality. But this just seems too easy for the Mets. K-Rod is an established, All-Star closer, one of the best in the game - just like Wagner was when the Mets signed him three years ago, and overall, that worked out all right. That K-Rod would be switching over from the American League to the National League should further help his effectiveness.
Rodriguez is just 26 years old, so he should be able to persevere through a five-year deal. And hey, if his elbow blows out near the end as did Wagner's, the Mets can go out and sign another free agent. Or, even better, they'll have a replacement ready to go from their farm system.
One potential hurdle with K-Rod: The competition for his services could be fierce from the likes of Detroit, St. Louis and perhaps the Dodgers. But the Mets can outbid those clubs if they so choose.
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Comments (28)
Ken, you know my views about closers. (I repeated them in the previous post.) What is your first thought as to how much it would cost, both in $ and term, to land an in-demand K-Rod, after a season in which he breaks the saves record (even though his other numbers aren't as spectacular).
JE, I'm usually with you on closers, as I wrote above, but I just think this is the perfect storm for the Mets. Figure K-Rod wants Rivera's $15 million a year, plus a fourth year. I'd do it. They're not going go make any big position-player acquisitions, and I don't see them shelling out huge money for any of the FA starting pitchers.
If he manages to get a fifth year, a la B.J. Ryan...yeesh. I'd even offer more per year, if I were the Mets, just to keep it at four years.
I hear you, Ken, but why would a 26-year-old star pitcher, even a closer, command ONLY four years in this market? Heck, why only five? Seriously. After breaking the saves record in 1990, a 27-year-old Bobby Thigpen received a three-year, $9M deal, then promptly fell apart.
Who is K-Rod's agent, by the way?
Fair point, JE. I'll amend to five years. K-Rod's agent is Paul Kinzer, who would probably rank in the baseball agent middle class.
Thanks. In the wake of his incredible numbers since joining the Dodgers, not to mention the boatloads of merchandising dollars already coming in, I suspect that McCourt (and Coletti?) will do what it takes to sign Manny to a two or three-year deal. If so, Ken, who else does he target: K-Rod or CC?
Ken, your reasoning concerning the Mets situation, from closer to starters to position players is extremely sound. However, I think a four year deal gets it done. Is necessary, add a fifth year player's option to the deal. My feeling is that K-Rod might not want a 5 year deal because he might be in a position for another 4 year deal when he is 30. Four years (with an option) might actually work better for him - and the Mets, too.
I am not convinced that McCourt will sign Manny for a number of reasons. Manny wanted out of the two option years, which makes me believe he wants $25 million annually for 3 or 4 years. That's a little rich for McCourt and anyone else.
If K-Rod were a premier starter, Jim, I might not disagree. However, what is the track record for young closers maintaining their dominance over time, Mariano Rivera notwithstanding? Already, some folks are whispering that his velocity is down a couple of MPH. If I were K-Rod, I would secure as many years as possible and, if possible, include an opt-out clause after four years.
Meanwhile, check out the third question in the post below. It's Tanyon Sturtze-related. A little odd, no?
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080908&content_id=3437978&vkey=news_la&fext=.jsp&c_id=la
K-Rod is going to want Rivera money which is $15 million a year. Can the Mets paid him that type of money? absolutely. Will they? were find out. 4-years $60 million is what K-Rod will command in the open market.
I would not commit more than 4/$60 million and that is tough to swallow after seeing so many of these guys dropping. This is a risk, to be sure. How about bringing in Kyle Farnsworth and converting him back to a full-time closer? He would be about $10 million a year cheaper, take a two year deal and has "nasty stuff" to use Ken's phrase. :)
On a "dollars and sense" note, talk about stadium financing outrage: I recall the Gwinnett County, Georgia baseball stadium financing story being prominently featured on the www.sabernomics.com web site over the past few months, but Shysterball boils it down to a few concise paragraphs.
Here it is: http://shysterball.blogspot.com/2008/09/great-moments-in-governmental.html
Jim, I'm with you. I just don't think that figure (60/4) will get you K-Rod. There will be a bidding war and I would be shocked if he doesn't get AT LEAST five years.
Could someone provide a list of relievers who actually finished a 4 year contract anywhere near as effective as the beginning of the contract?
What makes Rivera and Hoffman so special is that they have been effective for a decade - they are not the norm. Bullpen by committee or "you're the closer, go get 'em" is probaly just as effective and costs a lot less - hell, it's only one inning they have to throw!!!
Ken,
Any possibility the Mets save the cash for someone else and try to make Eddie Kunz the closer down the road? He has potential to be very lights-out if given the right amount of time to develop his stuff. If the Mets went the route of trying to resign Perez or go big once again and get CC, they'd have a very fearsome starting rotation. Plus, they are shedding a lot of salary after this season.
Good point, Bob. Give Maine a tryout as closer and shore up the starting rotation and lineup instead.
By the way, I have heard Ken's opinion on the four-man rotation; what's your take?
I still am a frustrated starter at heart - I'd like to try it. As I mentioned before, it's probably harder to find 5 quality starters than it is to find middle relievers. But as we discussed, pitch counts would have to religiously imposed at a lower level than now to avoid a Billy Martin type blowing out the entire staff.
I think most of the comments were against it.
Rivera, I believe signed a 4-year contract in the prime of his career in 2001. Rivera signed a 3-year contract worth $45 million and $15 million a year during the off-season last year. Francisco Cordero sign a 4-year $46 million deal with the Reds with a option for a 5th year at $12 million or a buyout for $1 million. Brad Lidge re-sign with the Phillies for 3-years $39 million. K-Rod will probably not get more than $15 million a year. I'll be surprise if he did. JE bought up the point that K-Rod might want a 5-year contract. If that were the case, K-Rod would want a 5-year $75 million contract at $15 million a year.
Thanks for the info, Dennis.
How long ago did we last rehash the issue, Bob? I am having trouble remembering. I generally concur with your view. I seem to recall that Ken isn't necessarily against a four-man rotation, but says that we're more likely to see the emergence of a six-man rotation than return to the good ol' days.
Just say no to K-Rod if he wants more than 4 years - and that is pushing the envelope. As Bob points out, closers are famous for flaming out and not justifying their huge contracts.
Dennis, you are right about Rivera's 4-year deal, but part of the reason he got it was because the was headed to arbitration. The club paid him an $8 million signing bonus paid over the life of the contract, Other details as per Cot's Baseball Contracts:
4 years/$39.99M (2001-04)
$8M signing bonus (paid over 4 years, 2001-04)
01:$7.15M, 02:$7.45M, 03:$8.5M, 04:$8.89M
no-trade clause 2001-02; out clause after 2002
avoided arbitration 2/01 ($10.25M-$9M)
4 man rotation can make all the sense in the world, but it isn't going to happen.
Funny item on Sturtze, JE. In the 1998 season, the Yankees released Dale Sveum in the first year of a two-year deal, and he asked to stick around that magical year as a bullpen catcher. He did, and then in 1999 he got a playing gig with Pittsburgh.
Very fair question about closers with 4-year deals, Bob. Goose would qualify. Fingers. I don't know if Lee Smith and Quisenberry ever got 4-year deals, but they were obviously effective for a long time. Your point is well taken, however.
Doug, I don't see the Mets going after CC. One pitcher with a nine-figure contract is enough. Re-signing Perez is a greater possibility. Knowing how Omar thinks, I think he'd be reluctant to enter the season with a tenuous plan at closer. He likes having an experienced guy in such an important role; hence his heavy recruitment of Wagner three years ago.
How ironic would it be if the Mets wo it all w/o Wagner...similar to the Giants w/o Shockey...as for K-Rod, he's much younger than River...give him the 5 years.
Corrrection...How ironic would it be if the Mets won it all w/o Wagner...similar to the Giants w/o Shockey...as for K-Rod, he's much younger than Rivera...give him the 5 years.
I thought I remembered Quisenberry signing a 10 year lifetime contract with the Royals back in the day??
If the Mets can get K-Rod for 5-75 you JUMP at the chance. I agree with Bob that its really dangerous, but if he brings you one World Series championship, its worth it. But Putz, Gagne, Lidge (when he was bad) all scare me. Still, the Mets are printing money, and since they are charging their fans a ridiculous amount of money to go to the new Stadium, they better bring in some new stars.
But there's no way K-Rod gets only 15 million per. Why would he?? Its such a premium position. But its sorta a catch 22. Many of the best teams dont need him (both Sox, Yanks, Cubs, Phillies, Twins) but one of the main reasons they are where they are are their closers. The Mets would have wrapped up their division this year had K-Rod been a Met. I mean compare Lidge to Wagner/the rest. Even though the Mets might not have too much competition, Minaya has proved that doesn't matter. He gave the Marlins whatever they wanted when the Mets were the only team interested in Delgado. He outbid everyteam by millions of dollars with Beltran, Pedro and Bensen. If K-Rod plays his cards right, he could get 18 or more per year. And he is Latino and Omar definitely has a comfort level with Latinos.
Plus, I dont think the Angels are going to let him go so easily. I've heard they wont pay him more than 15 million per. But I think they will bend.
Who else is in the running for him Ken?
Nike is replacing Addias as the official apparel for the Yanks next year. I read this in the Sports Business Journal.
Wagner sign with the Mets for 4 years. Cordero got 4 years with the Reds. B.J. Ryan got 5 years with the Jays. Hoffman sign a 4 year contract in 2000 with the Padres. Joe Nathan re-sign with the Twins at 4 years $47 million with a club option for $12.5 million. The next guy after K-Rod that will want a big contract will be Papelbon. So more closers have sign 4-year contracts than I thought.
As I wrote in the original item, Richie, Detroit, St. Louis, the Dodgers and Angels would be natural candidates for K-Rod's services.
Thanks Ken...shoulda read closer. I dont see any of the teams besides the Angels beating the Mets in a bidding war with all things being equal. I would expect the Angels to up their offer and K-Rod to give a slight discount and remain with the Angels. 5 years 18 mil per.
I was right about Quisenberry signing a lifetime contract, though I dont know how long that lasted. I cant believe he got 30 million guarenteed!!! Thats a hellava lot for a guy like him back in the day.
http://www.baseballlibrary.com/ballplayers/player.php?name=Dan_Quisenberry_1953
Ken, I thought the market for elite closers was set at a top of $15 million? Do you really think K-Rod would be able to pierce that? I don't.
Dennis, not sure what you were getting at with the reference to Adidas and Nike. I believe Adidas had a $98 million contract with the Yankees that provided premium signage, ticket imprints, logo on warmup gear, etc. The BOA deal replaces that one. Nike must be coming in for another deal. At the time no one could figure out how Adidas would get a return from the deal. Same thing will now go for BOA.
Jim, Adidas sign a 11-year contract with the Yanks in 1997 and their contract with the Yanks expired at the end of this season. The Yanks sign a deal with Nike for 5 years starting in 2009 at the new Yankee Stadium.
It wouldn't shock me if he surpassed the $15 mil mark, Jim. He's coming off what will be a record-breaking year, he's young and the industry is very healthy.