Omar Minaya's decision: Bobby Jenks, or K-Rod?
As the biggest players in the room, the Mets are running this relief market. They will set the course for the rest of the industry.
And in that role, Omar Minaya is wrestling over what to do, associates of his say. He has myriad options to fill his very important need at closer.
For now, forget about Brian Fuentes and Kerry Wood. It sure seems like Francisco Rodriguez's market is collapsing, and that the Mets are in the best position to capitalize on K-Rod's price drop.
That said, K-Rod could still cost four years, at something like $12 million or $13 million per season. For a guy who, this past year, looked larger and experienced a loss in velocity.
Jenks, on the other hand, is under team control through 2011. He could earn something like $24 million over the next three seasons. And he has been darn good for the White Sox, since taking over as closer late in the 2005 season.
What he would cost, of course, is talent in a trade. While I'm still trying to nail down the names, you'd have to think that the White Sox would want Fernando Martinez as part of the return package. Probably a top pitcher, too, like a Bobby Parnell. The White Sox, as of now, aren't conducting business as though they'll need a closer. The Mets will have to convince them.
So what should Omar do? Drain the farm system some more in order to have a reasonably priced, excellent closer? Or protect the kids and give out more money to a guy with perhaps bigger red flags?
I think I'd vote for a Jenks trade. Remember, in the Santana trade, the Mets gave up top chips for really just one year of Santana. After that, the Mets had to treat Santana like a free agent.
But Jenks is a proven commodity, and if he somehow flops, he won't drain the payroll and roster flexibility as would K-Rod (who, interestingly, is younger than Jenks, despite having three more years of service time compiled).
This is a big call for Omar, armed with his three-year extension through 2012. He has made too many poor decisions in the last two years. The turnaround begins, clearly, with selecting the right man to finish games.
Either way, it behooves the Mets to let this play out a little bit. To see if K-Rod's agent, or White Sox GM Ken Williams, or both, lower the price on their respective asset.
How could you think that one year at $6 million was "too much," but three years at $12 million was just right? When you can virtually print money at your new stadium, but you still have to play with 25 roster spots, just like everyone else?
I read in other media outlets where Cashman was citing J.C. Romero and Jamie Walker as precedents. To which I say, "Yes. Bad precedents." Romero was great for the Phillies this year, the first season of a three-year deal, but Romero became a Phillie in 2007 because the Red Sox designated him for assignment. Walker, meanwhile, put up a ghastly, 6.87 ERA for the Orioles in 59 appearances in 2008, the second year of his deal
Cashman has been sweating out his lack of a bullpen left-hander for years now. He thinks he found the answer. We'll see. I don't think I'm going on a limb by projecting that by 2011, the final year of this deal, Marte will be pitching for a different team, and that team will have received a subsidy from the Yankees to help pay the left-hander.
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Comments (28)
Sounds like the market for veteran lefty relievers is 3 years, 12 million. No precedent was set. Marte appears to be of similar quality to other veteran lefty relievers. Sounds like Cashman had a reasonable plan to keep him around on a short contract at typical prices. Seems to me that criticizing this move is petty.
Three years is a short contract? Comparing Marte's deal to other bad contracts is something I can't understand. Paying a guy who didn't produce and had elbow problems a princely sum of $12 million is mind-boggling.
The Marte deal will set a precedent for all the relievers who are free agents. The Yanks signed Marte before he became a free agent. In hindsight the Yanks should have pick up the $6 million option instead of giving Marte a 3 year $12 million contract with a club option in 2012. Romero got the same contract with the Phillies which was 3 years $12 million with a club option for 2011. Walker sign for 3 years $12 million with the Orioles in the off-season in 2006-07. So Marte, Romero and Walker are all lefty relievers who sign 3 years $12 million contracts. Let's remember that Cashman has been looking for a good lefty reliever for a while. He better be right on Marte.
Ken I agree with your prediction, only I think it happens one year earlier.
The answer is easy. K-Rod. At the end of the day, the Mets can recoup the money by overcharging their fans. But they cant get young prospects back. Why is Kerry Wood not an option?
And how much money did K-Rod lose with his second straight postseason performance? I think there would be more teams interested in K-Rod had he pitched lights out against the Sox. Including the Angels.
Love Jenks, but not for Martinez and Parnell. The savings of 3-4 million a year over 3-4 years compared to Fuentes or KRod is not worth the cost in talent when you have deep pockets like the Mets. The Mets seems to be backing into a good position via the FA closers, and giving up young high quality talent just isn't necessary. For all his faults, I think Omar is very good at knowing when to play his hand (Castillo excepted). He has acquired talent via FA and trades at good prices or when people least suspect him to be involved. So in this regard, I think he's in his element with todays closer market.
Richie-Imo, Wood isn't an option b/c of health. The Mets recent history means they can't gamble on health when other high quality options exist.
Dennis: "Good" is the operative word in your statement about Marte. He's not any good based on his 2008 Yankee performance. Cashman never learns his lessons.
How about this theory? Cashman needed to justify giving away Tabata and three young pitchers to the Pirates. Jettisoning Marte and having Nady under contract for just one more season would make the trade look that much more of a loser.
JE, I have been thinking the same thing. You are on to something. Cashman's talent assessments are suspect.
Jack, I wouldn't have given Marte that deal (I'd rather the two draft picks he would have netted if they let him walk away; I really don't see why Phil Coke couldn't fill his role), but what makes more sense: judging Marte based on 18 innings with the Yankees or his entire career? And those "elbow problems" were only inflammation from when Girardi went all Joe Torre on him and made him throw 50 pitches.
Ken
It's interesting to read your blog post and the Newsday article you co-wrote with David Lennon regarding Jenks. I take it you like him more than David does (your post is more positive than the article, I thought).
One of the things I was hoping you could clarify for me is how is it determined when a team needs to give draft pick compensation following a free agent signing?
If the Mets need to surrender picks for K-Rod or Fuentes, isn't that similar to trading prospects for Jenks or someone else? Granted, the prospects have more of a track record but the draft picks would be pretty high, wouldn't they?
Ken, Shysterball (Craig Calcaterra) goes batty over Newsday for waiting until now to opine on the ripping off of taxpayers for the new stadiums (stadia?) in New York.
http://shysterball.blogspot.com/2008/11/yankee-stadium-populism-update.html
http://shysterball.blogspot.com/2008/11/now-they-tell-us.html
JE, IMHO, Cashman would've come out smarter on the Nady/Marte trade if he had come out with two draft picks for Marte. But I am clearly out of tune with the Cashman Brain at the moment. You could very well be right.
Andy, the Elias Sports Bureau categorizes free agents (and all players, for that matter) using a mathematical formula that computes the past two seasons. The top 20% of players at each position are Type A, and the next 20 percent are Type B. Type A free agents bring back a first-round pick (if the signing team selects 16-30 in the upcoming draft) or a second-round pick (if the signing team selects 1-15), plus a sandwich-round pick. Type B free agents bring back a sandwich pick. These are both conditioned on the team offering arbitration to the departing free agent; no arbitration offer, no draft picks back.
You are right, in a sense, that the Mets would be trading "prospects" for K-Rod or Fuentes. The difference is that the prospects they'd give up for Jenks a) already have received their signing bonuses, so there's no upfront cost, and b) have been professional players for some time and are likely closer to the big leagues.
It's not the high price of talent that is the problem, it's the high price paid for mediocrity.
JE - considering how much money has been given to MLB teams by the federal, state and local governments either directly or through tax breaks and local public improvements, I anticipate that a team about to fold willl ask for bailout money.
For Dennis, our own AP sports wire contributor
CBS sportsline...Peavy deal moving along, but Ken Rosenthal is not sure...
Under terms of the deal discussed by the Braves and Padres, San Diego would receive shortstop Yunel Escobar, Class A outfielder Gorkys Hernandez, one of two starting pitchers -- Charlie Morton or Jo-Jo Reyes -- and either reliever Blaine Boyer or one of two minor-league left-handers (one of which is believed to be Jeff Locke).
Ken...I would rather see the Mets go the free agent route for a closer then give up young talent, unless it excludes Fernando Martinez & Murphy...and Jenks drop off in Ks might be a red flag...K-Rod seems like the right fit for the Mets and Fuentes is a good fall back option.
Mark Bowman on MLB.com said that the Braves as of Thursday morning hadn't gained a sense that they were any "closer" to getting Peavy than they'd been at any point earlier this week. Right now its a wait see approach on when Peavy is going to be traded.
I read the Angels might make a run for Manny if they don't re-sign Teixeria.
Regarding Marte, its a legitimate view that you'd rather let him go and take the draft picks than exercise the option or resign him to a longer term deal. I think Marte is a very good lefty specialist and that's a role the yankees have had a hard time filling but admittedly, middle relievers are the hardest players to project.
But if you are going to keep him, the longer term deal makes much more sense to me than picking up the option. You need to factor in the time value of money. I don't know what the Yankee's weighted average cost of capital is but if you assume its in the 10% range, the difference in net present value between the two options is under $5 million. If you like him enough to bring him back, wouldn't you like to have 2 additional years and an option for a third for an additional $5 million? Even if he greatly underperforms in 2009 and you ended up trading him next off-season, I doubt you would end up eating so much of the salary that the net present value in cost to the yankees would be more than the $6 million. Alternatively, if you did exercise the option and then wanted to bring him back in 2010 you'd have to pay much more than $5 million to do so.
Hell, if he had hit the free agent market some teams would likely have looked at him as a cheaper closer alternative and paid him more than the yankees did. This is a really good signing in my opinion.
I'd go with Fuentes. Jenks would cost too much young talent, and K-Rod would be another Benitez.
A quote from David Wright in todays Post. I think its pretty telling that he not only wants this type of player, but that the guy that doesn't have a desire to win exists, and probably exists in the Mets clubhouse.
As far as potential additions, Wright has a kind of player he'd prefer.
"I've always been a huge fan of high-character players, not only players that [have talent]," Wright said. "I love a player that puts winning before everything else. I take a guy that maybe has a little bit less talent but a guy that has a desire to win over maybe a guy that's a little more top-notch but doesn't."
"Andy, the Elias Sports Bureau categorizes free agents (and all players, for that matter) using a mathematical formula that computes the past two seasons. The top 20% of players at each position are Type A, and the next 20 percent are Type B. Type A free agents bring back a first-round pick (if the signing team selects 16-30 in the upcoming draft) or a second-round pick (if the signing team selects 1-15), plus a sandwich-round pick. Type B free agents bring back a sandwich pick. These are both conditioned on the team offering arbitration to the departing free agent; no arbitration offer, no draft picks back."
I'm just glad the system's not too complicated...
Why pay Marte $12 million to be a set-up man? They can be had for much cheaper. Often, he will be used to get one batter out. This type of use doesn't justify his salary. Factor in his dismal performance last year and the deal legitimately stinks. If he significantly underperforms in 2009 he will have little trade value and the Yankees will have to eat the remaining $8 million or at least much of it.
No team is taking Damon for $13 million. He did play well, although he was on the DL for a time. He is grossly overpaid. If the Yankees find a taker, they will have to send at least $4-$5 million and/or take on a similarly overpaid player in return.
Jack - I think you're badly unestimating Marte, largely based on his limited time with the Yanks. His career numbers are consistently good, something that you don't find every day in RP's.
He's not a 1 batter LOOGY type - he pitched to 1 batter in 6 of his 72 appearances in '08, 4 of those with the Yanks when Girardi was trying to figure out how he wanted to use him. By Sept. he was acting as one of the 7-8 inning setup guys.
The market for quality setup guys is clearly in the $4 mil per range. Marte compares as one of the top 3 LRP's in baseball over the past few years - that Walker and Romero got comparable deals, probably unjustified, as did Ron Mahay last year, set the market for these guys. And there's plenty of setup relievers making near or more than that in baseball - lets remember Hawkins got $3.75, and just resigned for $3.5. But guys like Linebrink, Dotel, Speier, Shields, Bradford, Scott Downs, are all making numbers above and near this in the AL alone. Don't forget Schoeneweis is at $3.6!
I just think your underestimating his market and player value.
Jack get real, enough with judging the guy on 18 innings? get a clue here buddy. 6 of those innings he pitched very well, strange you don't mention that, strange you don't mention he's put up career #'s that PROVE he's a solid lefty pitcher and can dominate lefty batters. If your met bias taints your view of baseball this much please spare us all and just stick with comments about your loser mets.
"He's not any good based on his 2008 Yankee performance."
so by your logic jack 12 bad innings negates an entire career of showing he can pitch well? if anything is mind boggling it's your logic.
"Why pay Marte $12 million to be a set-up man? They can be had for much cheaper. "
they can? and to say he's the set up man is a little bit of a stretch, his job will be to get big lefties out late in games. He give lefty batters fits and im fine with locking him up for 3 years, it's worth the shot at having a quality lefty out of the pen for 3 year at 4 mill per. Farnworth was making almost double that per year and he was god aweful, and we knew he was god aweful before he came here. Marte has career number that prove he id a solid lefty and can get lefties out, 12 bad innings when you change leagues to a new team in the middle of the season doesnt wipe away what you have done your whole career.
Let's see the flunkies Omar brings in at the same amount per year and maybe more, NONE will be as talented as Marte will be. Enjoy that and enjoy that baby at 1st you have and enjoy watching k-rod praise the lord like his life was just saved when he converts a save in may that the mets had a 3 run lead in.
Jack = yankee hater
The Mets have the money for K-Rod (Alou 7.5M and Hernandez 7M) and it was the bullpen that cost them the pennant and Santana the Cy Young. The Mets established their payroll at 137.5 M a year, and they established their ticket prices too. So when they cut the ticket prices they can cut the payroll. They didn't lose money in 2008. Money they have plenty of, prospects are in low supply.
RT = Resident of Fantasyland.
Since I have attended well over 1,500 Yankee games in the past 30 years I doubt I could be considered a Yankee hater. If you think Marte performed well in 2008 for the Yankees you are probably a member of a very small group. To pay a guy $12 to get one batter out a couple of times a week is ridiculous. Cashman himself has spoken out against giving someone like Marte a multi-year, multi-million dollar contract.
Get real RT. People in baseball think the contract is ludicrous. Lots of people can be somwhat effective and then flop in NY. Haven't you seen this before? I have.
The fact you think I am a Mets fan proves you don't have the slightest clue of what you are talking about. I detest the Mets, detest the Wilpons and have never been a fan of the franchise.
nyyfaninlaaland: Many of the contracts you cite were signed in a different economy and under different conditions. We just saw Marte flop for the past few months. Why extend him three years?
In hindsight, the Marte trade might not have been ideal. However, the Yankees hardly gave up much for Marte and Nady. The biggest chip was Tabata who proved to be a misfit in the minors and was coming off an injury. Nady proved to be solid and Marte still has quality pitches to get big bats out.
I thought this signing was reasonable compared to the other free agent aquisitions. Given Marte, Romero and Walker: Who would you rather take? I mean come on, would you rather take a lefty reliever with a career 4.2 ERA or one with 3.3 (Almost a whole run down)? At age 33, Marte still has the stuff and has a good track record. So I find it puzzling to call this "mind boggling." (More mind boggling seems to be the fact that after two collapses, Omar is still a GM and gets a contract extension to boot -- but that's just a tangent from the main point)
Predicting what a reliever (especially given the sporadic nature of relievers) will do based on 18 innings is perpostuous. Anyone who has even taken the basic fundamentals of statistics would consider this fact as an outlier at best.
Instead of assuming that there are better options out there, perhaps it would be wise to actually state the better options. Give me a lefty/setup guy with even better numbers at a better price. Then, you might actually have a basis for this clearly desultory nonsense.
plain and simple David Wright with his comment does not want Manny on his team.. He's right maybe we should go after a guy with less talent someone like Erik Brynes now tha'ts a player with a lot of grit.