Free agents living on the edge
Yesterday, Buster Olney identified six free agents whose cases interest him. They were indeed compelling players and situations, and all six will get jobs for 2009.
But I have to admit that the cases I like to follow the most _ not necessarily report on the most, but monitor with fascination _ are those of former elite players who are now at an advanced age and reduced level of production. Players who, because they love the competition/money/celebrity, aren't ready to hang 'em up, but can't call their own shots anymore, and might have even played their last major-league game.
A year ago, for instance, if I had sat here and projected that Roger Clemens, Kenny Lofton, Mike Piazza, Sammy Sosa and David Wells would all be unemployed in 2008, you would've rightfully questioned my competence. But the baseball market has changed. Teams are no longer willing to pay for a premium for a "name" that is well past his prime.
(From that group, I should note that Lofton received multiple offers to play, but turned them down because there wasn't enough guaranteed money).
Anyhoo, using Jeff Passan's free-agent rankings, I've picked out my list of free agents to watch.
1. Ken Griffey, Jr. He wants to keep playing, very much so. Hence his decision to get his left knee surgically repaired. He even wants to play for Team USA in the World Baseball Classic, which could be a little awkward, since he's not one of the best players anymore.
From a baseball standpoint, his best fit would be an American League team looking for a complimentary outfielder-DH - as opposed to a full-time DH, because he's probably not good enough for that anymore. The one X-factor for Junior, who turns 39 later this month, is Seattle. Will new GM Jack Zduriencik be pushed by ownership to bring back Griffey for a homecoming/farewell tour?
2. John Smoltz. He made one appearance after April last year, and that one game, a June 2 relief appearance, sent him to shoulder surgery. He has come back from so much, but this will be Smoltz's greatest challenge. The good news for Smoltz, 41, is that the Braves will give him every chance to return.
3. Pedro Martinez. We saw that he still has the fight in him. But we also saw that he couldn't make it out of the first inning without getting dinged up. The team that takes a chance on Pedro must already have a deep starting rotation, for you really can't rely too heavily upon him. And Pedro is going to have to settle for less guaranteed money than he has since his time with the Expos.
4. Nomar Garciaparra. A Fenway Park favorite like Pedro, how much does No-mah have left? Not much at all, it appears. He'll probably market as a part-time righty hitter who can play multiple infield positions. To think, he once occupied the same rare air as Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez...
5. Tom Glavine. Like Smoltz, he'll get a Braves bailout, if he so desires.
6. Kenny Rogers. What a career he has put together, belying the memories of those who know him best from his New York days. But he pitched pretty poorly for the Tigers this past year. Will he try again, for a pay cut?
7. Frank Thomas. He still got on base a lot with Oakland, but he can't stay on the field for very long.
8. Curt Schilling. Schilling missed the whole season with right shoulder problems, and before ALCS Game 5, which the Red Sox won after erasing a 7-0 deficit to Tampa Bay, he threw the ceremonial first pitch at Fenway. To quote Dan Shagunessy from this column, "That's what the Red Sox got for their $8 million this year - one pitch, in the dirt." LOL. Schill said that he would consider pitching the second half of '09. If he follows through on that, he will certainly draw some interest, although I'm sure the Sawx would love to be deep enough pitching at that point so that they could pass.
9. Orlando Hernandez. I missed watching El Duque pitch this past year, and while it's believed that he recently turned 43, he filed for free agency. His agent, Greg Genske, said at the general managers' meetings last week that Hernandez wants to close. However, El Duque has told friends that he wants to get further along in his rehab - making sure he's healthy - before committing to a comeback. If he does return, expect Joe Torre's Dodgers to be interested.
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Comments (26)
Once they find a reliable test for HGH, there's going to be another drug they are gonig to have to find a test for. Blood testing will never happen anytime soon in the 4 major league sports. Blood testing is very complicated to do because you don't know what's in a person's blood and even blood testing is unreliabled.
Hoffman will sign somewhere. Consider that he is 41 years old, I would think Hoffman will get a 1 year contract. It also tells you that the Padres are serious about cutting their payroll.
This is a great posting Ken. You are very creative - and very good at your job. Personally, I think most of the guys on your list are done, with either seriously eroded skills or an inability to get through a season without a good chance of spending substantial time on the DL. I wouldn't blame any team for not wanting to cough up even a couple of million bucks for any of these guys.
Dennis - so true. The process of maintaining and refining a banned substance list is something that will go on forever. And, it is still doubtful according to scientific literature that HgH actually helps. From a study early this year that examined all existing research..
http://www.annals.org/cgi/content/full/0000605-200805200-00215v1?maxtoshow=&eaf
Conclusion: Claims that growth hormone enhances physical performance are not supported by the scientific literature. Although the limited available evidence suggests that growth hormone increases lean body mass, it may not improve strength; in addition, it may worsen exercise capacity and increase adverse events. More research is needed to conclusively determine the effects of growth hormone on athletic performance.
--
http://www.nypost.com/seven/11112008/sports/moresports/mlb_wont_test_for_hgh_138152.htm
"Growth hormone is widely abused by athletes," Richard Holt, a professor at University of Southampton in Great Britain, said yesterday at the daylong Growth Hormone Summit, presented by Major League Baseball and UCLA. "There is little scientific evidence that growth hormone is performance-enhancing. I think the scientists are wrong and the athletes are right."
Ahhh, scientists on vacation in Beverly Hills and on someone else's money telling us that they need more money. It reminds me of the movie "Help" where Algernon (Roy Kinnear) describes Dr. Foot (Victor Spinetti)...
"Stop him? Me? It's more than my job's worth to stop him once he gets started. He's out to rule the world... if he can get a government grant."
OK, Bob, so are you saying that Mark McGuire belongs in the HOF?
Sorry, Mark McGwire. Can't believe I made that mistake!
Should all of these guys (Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, et al) be in the HOF?
To pay these athletes for past rather than current performances is no longer in vogue. It is economic reality and rightly so. Not completely analogous, but it is like the Wall Street peolpe fully expecting their huge bonuses because they have some sense of entitlement as opposed to actually performing.
Steve, I couldn't agree more. I've written to Ken before, "You buy a used car for it's going to do, not what it's done."
Jack/Steve - so true. Mark Messier made a financial killing off the Stanley Cup win for a decade - far beyond his abilities.
JMH - Yes, I think Bonds should be in the Hall of Fame. I await his speech in front of 100,000 people and a national audience in 5 years where he will be forced to discuss the steroid era. Yes on Clemens, no on the one dimensional McGwire and Sosa. But Bonds won;t get in, because sports reporters get the right to vote and want to punish him even if the government and MLB cannot..
Frankly, I don't support making baseball writers the moral guardian of the game. And due to their actions, I don't believe that Congress, the Dept. of Justice and the SF DA should act as moral guardians of baseball. If the House Govt. Reform Committee had spent as much time examining the balance sheets of FNM and FRE and Wall Street firms as they did drugs in sports, we wouldn't be where we are now.
Ironically, Mark McGwire's actions after the Congressional hearings are actually in retrospect more honorable than many of the other characters who were named in the Mitchell Report. He disappeared. He didn't make up any excuses for his behavior, only tried it once, etc. - Yes, he took the 5th during the Congressional hearings, but considering the perjury traps and charges for Bonds and Clemens, it was the right legal move.
Old fashioned self imposed exile in disgrace - what a concept. It proves he actually had some remorse for his part in the process.
It's not getting a lot of attention, but Edinson Volquez got three third-place Rookie of the Year votes even though he's not eligible. That's just embarrassing.
When McGwire plea the 5th to Congress, everybody came to the conclusion that McGwire definitely took steriods and won't get into HOF. While it looks like McGwire won't get into the HOF, as Bob said, McGwire has lay low and in the US government has not gone after him.
The NL Cy Young award winner will be announced at 2:00 p.m. today. Most likely Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, or Brandon Webb. But the real NL Cy Young award winner should be Brad Lidge who will probably won't win it. Althought Santana was a difference maker for the Mets, Lidge was the difference maker for the Phillies in winning the World Series for them. He was 41-for-41 in save opportunities in the regular season and 7-for-7 in save opportunities in the postseason and overall was 48-for-48 in save opportunities. Lidge is not going to win the NL Cy Young, but he was the difference between the Phillies winning the World Series and the Mets not making the playoffs.
B-Walk: Interesting regarding Edinson Volquez.
I can't find it, but I seem to remember that there was a BBWAA season limit - not a cumulative limit on innings and at bats and days on a roster. The at bats per year limit was 150, the innings limit 50 and you couldn't spend more than 45 days on a ML roster pre-September 1st.
Ken - please advise - has the BBWAA voting been influenced by ACORN?
Also please tell us if you want to be BBWAA VP in 2010 or President in 2011. JE and I will do ballot security for you gratis!
The MLB website says the three BBWAA members goofed.
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081110&content_id=3673053&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
I'm surpirsed that Obama didn't collect a few votes for the ROY!
wait, am i reading a list of the all star team from ten years ago???
I'm pretty interested in seeing where Derek Lowe, Brad Penny and Jon Garland wind up. Those 3 could help either NY team as lower end starters and not cost an arm and a leg.
It was interesting to see the Marlins trade away Scott Olson yesterday to Washington. Washington seems to be a halfway house for troubled major leaguers. But Olson is better than any pitcher they already have on their team, even if he's a bit tortured.
Other than Smoltz who I don't think is going to be healthy enough, none of those guys is much if any better than somebody you could pay league minimum. While I'm sure there are some old school GM's who may bite on some of these players, incentive laden deals should be the best these guys can hope.
Bob-Since you are putting steroids, creatine, HGH aside, I'm not sure how you classify Big Mac as one dimensional. He was a good fielder, and his career OPS+ checks in at 162 (better than nearly all HOF'ers including Mays, Aaron, Robinson) with a 394/588 line. Sure he lumbered, but the man was a devastating offensive force.
whynot - I view McGwire as the next generation Dave Kingman in an age of small parks, emphasis on the long ball, and postage size strike zones. It's a personal bias.
In nno way was he near the cumulative accomplishments of Frank Robinson, Hank Aaron or Willie Mays on the field. The never made an all-star team hitting .201.
Bob, you're right on Messier. He didn't make the playoffs the last six years of his career.
Ken, I love this type of post. Anyone can talk on Tex, but this is way more interesting. There are two proven winners on that list, who come up big everytime they're asked to. Smoltz and Schilling. The Sox would be fools not to sign Schilling for half a season. Its only money, and truthfully, he's paid them back with two World Series rings.
The Braves though dont need Smoltz. Their not good enough for him to matter. I think signing him and Glavine just delays their reimurgance one more year. I love that Smoltz wants to play in Atlanta, but he's not a good fit there.
Dumb question, but is there a chance Pedro can close somewhere? He obviously doesn't have enough left to start. Though his first inning problems were bad. Maybe he can be a closer by committe type guy so they dont depend on him too much?
Ken, I dont understand something, if you make a mistake on your ballot, dont they review it? Or discount the vote?? Very strange. Sometimes people in your profession should be ashamed of themselves. And this is one of those times, along with the Palmiero Gold Glove Award. I seriously wonder how these people have HOF votes. You would never make that gaffe.
And if you think Volquez is a rookie, how is he not the Rookie of the Year?? I know Soto played great, but Volquez as a starter did things that few rookies have ever done (and neither did he bc he wasn't a rookie!!). Personally, I think Pujols should win the ROY this year since he wont win the MVP.
OK, last one I swear. Ken I saw that you said Boras is a winner for the Holliday trade. Maybe this year but maybe not next. As you pointed out, if Holliday has a subpar season (in one of the worst hitting parks around...they still play in the Coliseum right?) than just think how much his value will drop. Could be a lot which would make Boras a very BIG loser in this trade.
know he's not anywhere near their level as an all-around player, but as an offensive force, he ranks pretty highly (off the top of my head, better than McCovey, Cepeda and Stargell). OPS+ numbers smooth out park factors and have given us much better insight when comparing era's nowadays. And couldn't you say the same about Bonds, Arod, Griffey, etc when comparing strike zones and strategic emphasis? Like you, I don't care about steroids, hgh, etc and think the best players should be in the Hall regardless of the 'issue'. I just think Mac gets a short shrift so quickly, and that people don't realize just how huge his offense was and wondered why somebody as insightful as yourself isn't impressed.
Mac- 388/599/988 162 OPS+
Kingman 302/478/780 115 OPS+-He's no Big Mac
RIP, Herb Score who pitch for the Indians from 1955-59 and his career was never the same after Gil MacDougald lined a pitch at his right eye that resulted in a broken nose and a number of broken bones to his face. After his playing career was over, Score became the "Voice of the Indians", doing Indians games for 34 years from 1963-1997. He was 75.
Part of the reason McGwire doesn't get the respect many people think he deserves is the mid-career period when he was constantly injured and couldn't hit for power or average. Either at that time he was using already and his body couldn't handle it and kept breaking down or he wasn't yet, but he turned to it as a last resort to keep his career going.
Kingman was one of the biggest useless wastes of all-time as a player and person. Remember the dead rat he sent up the woman reporter in the press box? Nice.
I think HOF voters should either vote for all the steroid users that #'s suggest they belong in the Hall, or none of them.
Also, if you vote for Bonds, you probably should vote for Rose if you ever have that chance.
And if you need proof, what proof is there for McGwire or Sosa?? Dont get me wrong, they are both juicers, but there is no proof. I'm not saying you need proof either, but there are voters that wont vote for Palmiero bc of proof where there is no proof with Sosa.
I'd be conflicted, but at the end of the day I think I'd vote them in.
"....but monitor with fascination _ are those of former elite players who are now at an advanced age and reduced level of production."
How is C-Rod not on that list?
Whether baseball can or should test for HGH is an interesting question, but please understand that it does not in anyway involve "violating anyone's civil rights."
Civil rights are at issue when the government acts against individuals. Major League Baseball and its franchises are private organizations.
I don't care how much he bet on winning games, it takes nothing away from the player he was. Pete Rose is the best of the best, and he deserves to be in the HOF. Fair is fair, and the truth cannot be denied,. He is one of the best ballplayers MLB, has ever seen. Wake up, and smell the roses, the people who are in charge, and out and out BIGOTS ! He will always be one of the Best, for all of Baseballs fans. Give us the chance to decide, and he would be there in a landslide minute. You think you are Gods, that you can decide a persons fate, your NOT, and you will pay for that, when you meet your 'maker'. Take that to the BANK !