GMs' meetings: Monitoring the K-Rod and Brian Fuentes markets
The more the Mets insist that they're not going to wind up with Francisco Rodriguez, the more I think they're going to wind up with Fransicsco Rodriguez.
Here's how I envision it: The competition for Brian Fuentes _ think Mets, Cardinals, Indians, Brewers and Rangers _ grows so fierece that a team offers Fuentes four guaranteed years. Meanwhile, the five-year market for K-Rod doesn't develop, knocking him back down to four years.
So at that point, let's say the top offer for Fuentes is four years and $48 million, while K-Rod is at four years and $60 milllion.
That's a $4 million per year difference. K-Rod is seven years younger than Fuentes, and he has a longer history of success. At that point, are the Mets still going to go cheap?
Omar Minaya said yesterday, "We have to look at everybody right now. We're not going to discount anybody. This early in the process, we're going to hear what the numbers are. I remember when (Carlos) Beltran's numbers were 200 million." Beltran, of course, dropped all the way to $119 million.
I bounced my "Fuentes rises, K-Rod drops" theory on a couple of non-Mets officials, and they liked it. I'll still wait until Nov. 14, the first day of open free agency, to make my official prediction. But ask me today who saves the first victory at Citi Field, and I'll say K-Rod.
Here is my story on the Mets.
I blogged yesterday about Brian Cashman's meeting with the media; here is the story I wrote. A couple of additional Yankees points:
I'm having regrets, BTW, of writing back in July that Sabathia wouldn't wind up a Yankee. But again, I'll wait until the 14th for the official stuff.
The greatest appeal of Peavy, IMHO, is his market-friendly contract. With his 2013 team option, he's committed to five years and $81 million. But in order to approve a trade to the Yankees, Peavy would leverage his no-trade clause into a raise that would put him at market value. Let's say another two years at $20 million on top of what he's owed, which would make it seven years and $121 million. And that's probably a conservative guess on my part.
So, as discussed earlier, forget about Peavy to the Yankees for now. For the Yankees and starting pitching, it's all about free agents.
Dennis, before you link to this, I'm going to pre-empt you. I'd say there's a 1 percent chance of Carl Pavano returning to the Yankees. It's in everyone's best interests for him to get a fresh start elsewhere. Brian Cashman might have good standing with the Steinbrenner family, but he might finally raise some eyebrows if he said, "You know what we should do? Bring back Carl Pavano!"
Referring to the fact that government officials sat in on George Mitchell's interview with McNamee, the attorney asked, "How does it further the government's purpose Why was the federal government there? Why do they care if McNamee talked to Sen. Mitchell? Mr. Mitchell was a private individual doing a private investigation for a private client. Without law enforcement having a purpose, to extend privilege is unheard of in the law. It is a very dangerous precedent to set."
The real reason, of course, is because our government is vengeful, and if they couldn't get McNamee and Kirk Radomski - and, very much by extension, Clemens and his fellow juicers - they wanted to lend a helping hand to Major League Baseball. It's a joke.
And speaking of our government, happy voting today! I'll stay out of the prediction business on that issue, and keep posting here about baseball.
Just as a refresher, here is why it wouldn't have made sense for Clemens to sue Mitchell or Major League Baseball.
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Comments (25)
Good morning, Ken. The city of Madison seems determined to prevent me from accessing the Newsday site. Of course, they also seem determined to allow for any shmoe to show up at a polling station, register on the spot and cast a ballot! :-(
As you know, I will be unhappy with a K-Rod acquisition, particularly if it takes away from the dollars needed to bring in a top arm or left fielder. What are you sensing from the Mets brass regarding their other needs? (I have not been online much in the past 36 hours, so forgive me if you have already discussed the matter.)
"Vote Quimby!"
See, Ken, I told you Peavy would play for the Yankees! Haha. I'm kidding, of course. But I did think the competitor in Peavy would at least want to give New York a second thought. Yankee fans can hope for a kind of Brett Favre situation -- where New York isn't the first choice, but eventually becomes the only choice.
Ken, do you get the sense from Cashman's words that he's given up on promoting pitching from within? It sounds like after Joba he has no faith in his young arms anymore and that he feels the only way to fill out the rotation is through free agency. It would be kind of sad if after only two years he's given up on his plan. I know Kennedy and Hughes weren't good in '08, but other young arms showed promise, and to give up on the plan now sees cowardly.
I'm sure Dennis will be happy to know that Phil Hughes had a good start in Arizona yesterday (5 IP, 1 hit, 8 Ks). I was saddened to see NoMaas jumped on the anti-Hughes bandwagon, which makes them the biggest of hypocrites.
Hi Ken. Why is that there's no talk about Joe Beimel being a lefty set-up option for the Mets? He never gives up homers, and he had a 2.02 era last year.
This was in the "Denver Post" today:
"There's a growing likelihood that Matt Holliday will be traded at some point, given that the Rockies have conceded they won't be able to sign him long-term. When surveying executives about a possible landing spot, the Yankees continue to pop up. One scenario floated: Yankees trade Hideki Matsui to Seattle and land Holliday with a package focusing on starter Phil Hughes."
Is there any real possibility of the Yankees dumping Hideki off on Seattle? They should do that if they can get Holliday or not.
If the Yankees can't sign Tex, then they have to consider someone like Holliday because they seriously need to bring in some offense. They're going to lose Giambi and Abreu AND the offense was terrible last year. Even if A-Rod has another MVP season and Jeter and Cano return to normal, they still have to make a move.
I would really hate to see Phil end up in Colorado. That's a terrible ballpark to pitch in. I'd rather see him go to San Diego, so he could go back home and pitch against weak competition in a great ballpark for pitchers.
Mets have to be at a point where they don't want to give their position on who they are going to try and sign....A interesting point to note that Carlos Beltran and Boris originally wanted $200 MIL and only got $119 MIL....
JE, the Mets' thought is, "We scored 799 runs in '08 and missed the playoffs because we couldn't protect leads. Pitching, pitching, pitching!"
baileywalk, the Matsui-to-Seattle rumor is making the rounds. I said hi to Jack Zduriencik yesterday but will have the chance to speak with him more today. I'm not sure that Matsui would even approve a trade there, since he and Ichiro are anything but the best of friends.
Good question about Cashman's lack of commitment to young pitchers. I think he's revised his thinking, with the idea, "Hughes will get his chance. We just don't want to hand a job to him." And with that in mind, I don't see Cashman giving up Hughes for one year of Holliday - and that's all it would be, since Holliday (repped by Boras) ain't signing an extension.
Peavy deciding to include the Yanks and the Angels among the teams he would waive his no-trade clause allows the Padres to get more leverage in talks with other teams. Peavy already said that he rather pitch in the National League, but were see what happens.
I think Yankees fans like myself overreacted over how Hughes and Kennedy pitch this year. Fans have to be patient with young pitchers. But sometimes we make quick judgment on them. Whether Cashman and the Yanks have ran out of patients already with their young pitchers, were see. But that's not going to stop the Yanks from a lot of money on free agent starting pitchers like Sabathia, Burnett, Lowe etc.
As much as I would love to see the Yanks get Matt Holliday, I don't see it happening. The Yanks are not going to traded Hughes right now because they still believe in Hughes. Matsui and Ichiro have a very frosty relationship, so I don't see Matsui going to the Mariners. And with Boras as his agent, Holliday is going to test the free agent market reguardless of whoever team trades for him.
Let's hope that we don't have the a Florida debacle in 2000 in this election today.
Ken, K-Rod will get 5 years 85 million dollars and be a Met, unless the Angels match that. Just my opinion.
After watching K-Rod against the Red Sox, I'm a scared. But Fuentes will be horrible if he's a Met. And they cant go into the season with Ayala as a closer.
Is there any chance Maine will be the closer? I heard Kerry Wood is a free agent. Is that true? I didn't think he was but it was on a poll in Newsday.
Wood is a free agent, Richie. HIs health history makes him an enormous risk, IMHO.
No chance Maine will be the closer. He's too valuable as a starter.
Since the Mets are going to be making excessive amounts of money in their new park next season and the season after, why not go for broke and sign KRod and a starter--they can afford it and they can afford the luxury tax if needed to pay as well. If they are looking to save money, they might as well sign Chad Cordero who has history with Omar.
I don't understand why every Japanese player is linked to Seattle, just because they are owned by a Japanese conglomerate. The people making the decisions on players aren't Japanese. As far as not liking Ichiro, that's a problem since no one there likes him as it is.
The Mets can afford K-Rod and should sign him. Sure, let the price and number of years drop. Then get it done.
It would be nice if the Yankees had an experienced hand available to work with Cashman. A Pat Gillick-type that could serve as a consultant. Cashman's feelings would be hurt, but tough luck. Some of his decisions have been lousy and he doesn't necessarily have the club in a good position. People in the industry feel the Yankees could be in trouble.
Sandy, I believe Seattle's Japanese ownership does have a significant influence on personnel moves. Perfect evidence would be this:
"Kenji Johjima's three-year, $24MM extension was mandated by Japanese ownership. Johjima has an opt-out clause after the '09 season, but only in the event of a serious family issue. The extension looks like a sunk cost for Seattle before it even begins."
They basically forced them to extend a completely worthless player for a lot of money.
JMH, my fear is that Minaya will use the K-Rod signing as evidence that he has fixed the bullpen. Clearly, who polices the seventh and eighth innings will matter more in determining whether the Mets make the postseason next year.
Has everyone had a chance to comment on Jeter being ranked as the absolute worst starting position player in the majors: http://www.nypost.com/seven/11042008/sports/yankees/worst_fielder_in_majors_136772.htm
baileywalk if that is true then Seattle is screwed. Its not like Johjima is liked either. And he be absolutely stupid to opt out since he is terrible and unmarketable to any team.
JE speaking of Bill James his new handbook that comes out tomorrow says the Yankees have the second-to-worst young talent available to them in baseball, only the Astros are worse. I wonder if a paycheck from Boston influences any of his opinions? Vizquel just got dropped by the Giants, and I'm not so sure I would want most of those guys in that article over Jeter for any reason.
Ken
As a Mets fan that wants them to sign Derek Lowe, should I be hoping the Yankees sign Sabathia & Burnett - thereby eliminating the Mets biggest obstacle to obtaining Lowe's services?
Or, in your opinion, should I not be rooting for a Mets-Lowe marriage in the first place?
Well, Boston DID hire him, right? ;-) On the other hand, James was not the only voter. The view of Jeter's defense among the sabremetrically-inclined is fairly consistent.
I just got through looking at today's Chicago Tribune which says the Mets are extremely interested in trading for Javy Vazquez. He is owed $23 million and it wouldn't take much to take him off the White Sox hands. If that's the case and I was a Mets fan I would demand that they resign Perez. As inconsistent and frustrating as he is, he's way better than Vazquez.
Andy, not a bad thought on the Sabathia-Burnett-Lowe trio re: Yankees/Mets. I think Lowe would be a good acquisition for the Mets.
Hi Ken. You never answered my question. How come there isn't any talk about Joe Beimel being a lefty set-up option for the Mets? He had a 2.02 era last year. And the last time he gave up a home run was 2007. The total amount of home runs he allowed in '07? One. That's it. With the bullpen being the way it is, how could they not be making a bee-line for this guy?
Whoops. Forgot to sign in.
Hi Ken. You never answered my question. How come there isn't any talk about Joe Beimel being a lefty set-up option for the Mets? He had a 2.02 era last year. And the last time he gave up a home run was 2007. The total amount of home runs he allowed in '07? One. That's it. With the bullpen being the way it is, how could they not be making a bee-line for this guy?
Ken, I'm hoping that Mr. Wood will still pitch for the Cubs as that's where he belongs. But I think he's a great option. He's probably going to be better than K-Rod in the long haul, since he's a hurler. If he's willing to leave the Cubs (and I'm not sure he is) I bet he would sign for 3 years at 12 million per. That is a lot more palatable than the other options. Though again, I really hope he stays with the Cubs. And I hope K-Rod stays with the Angels bc I love when players stay with their original clubs.
I only asked about Maine because I thought the Mets may try in house. I know its dumb, but I dont think the Mets are all that smart.
Is it a surprise that Bill James is anti-Yankees considering the fact he collects a paycheck from the Red Sox? No. This is the same Bill James who doesn't believe in a closer. And this is the same Bill James who feels that the Dowd report lack any evidence against Pete Rose that he bet on baseball even thought years later Rose admit to betting on baseball. As for Jeter, we know Jeter is getting older and his defensive skills are declining. But I gather all the other voters didn't watch every game Jeter play this year.
Hey Judge, Rosenthal is reporting today that the Mets are indeed interested in Beimel. Let's hope he stays away from the city's bars if he makes it here. I think he's a solid option, especially if the Mets can dump Pdero II or Schoenweiss. I like Juan Cruz as well.
I'm on the Mets Lowe/Fuentes bandwagon, but hope they plan to upgrade either LF or 2B as well. If they can get Dunn for LF (with the idea of moving him to 1B in 2010), or Hudson for reasonable dollars I think the lineup is upgraded tremendously. Just one of those guys getting added will really change the dynamic of the lineup for 2009.
Ken-Any talk of Dunn from Met-land? I'd imagine they will wait to see if they can get him cheap.
But all of that is just noise b/c we BULLPEN HELP!!!!
Dennis, why do you think that the voters didn't watch every play in question? Otherwise, that would require them to spend more time with their spouses! In any event, James' analytical work is top-notch, regardless of his views on the Dowd report.
As David Pinto reminded us in his post on the subject, the Yankees ought to at least consider moving Jeter to center field, particularly if they might bid for Lowe's services....
"Hey Judge, Rosenthal is reporting today that the Mets are indeed interested in Beimel. Let's hope he stays away from the city's bars if he makes it here. I think he's a solid option, especially if the Mets can dump Pdero II or Schoenweiss. I like Juan Cruz as well."
Thanks, I hadn't read Rosenthal's column. Beimel and Cruz would be a deadly set-up combination. You add those guy's, plus a proven closer like Fuentes or Street, and the bullpen all of a sudden becomes a strength.
Count me in for Lowe as well.