Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

Ah, one of my favorite subjects.

Which impacts you more - steroids or a city hellbent on spending your tax dollars on bribes, billionaires and their stadia?

If Bloomberg runs (and if the GOP nominates a Democrat like John Catsimatidis) I officially announce my candidacy for the Republican nomination for mayor - and the first thing I will do is throw every one of the damn people inolved in these frauds in front of a grand jury like the government did to Barry Bonds.

No more billionaire mayors giving sweetheart deals to their fellow billionaires. And hopefully the public stops acting like the sheared sheep that they are, staring in slack jawed wonder at the glitzy palaces built with their money for these mayoral miscreants.

The only way taxpayer money should be used to pay for a new stadium is if that team is threating to move to another city. In this case, the Yanks were weren't going anywhere. The Yanks were paying for the construction of the new Yankee Stadium, but they also were getting money from NYC officials to build parking garages and a new Metro-North station.
It sounds like the Orioles might be the 3rd team that might help the Cubs get Peavy in a three-way deal with the Padres. Reports are that the Cubs would sent outfielder Felix Pie to the Orioles for pitcher Garrett Olsen and then the Cubs would trade Olsen as part of a package deal to the Padres for Peavy. Ken Rosenthal on FOXSports.com said that in order for that to happen the Cubs must trade Jason Marquis and his $9 million salary for next year. Rosenthal suggest that the Padres should have Marquis be part of a package for Peavy and that the Cubs should pick up $3 million of Marquis salary of $9 million. He also said that the Cubs could trade Marquis to another team in order to make the deal with the Padres for Peavy.

Agreed on the Mets catcher situation. They have bigger fish to fry (bullpen, rotation) than catcher. Mets catchers were about league average in 2008 offensively - there are other more pressing areas to improve.

I think Met fans grew accustomed to having strong offensive performers behind the plate (Hundley, Piazza, LoDuca in 2006), so Brian Schneider and his .706 OPS were not welcome at Shea this year.

Dennis, just about every team that has wanted a new stadium has at one time or another threatened to move, going to great lengths a few times to make it believable. Taxpayer monies should never go to these projects because they are designed not as a public service but to enrich owners, top executives and corporations. Improving/building infrastructure is one thing (roads, exits, train stations, etc.), but building stadiums is entirely different.

Ken, I want to get back to a matter that was insufficiently discussed yesterday. You (and others) continue to express your belief that Nick Swisher was simply unlucky last year and that the Yankees made a good deal acquiring him from the White Sox even though he is due a ton of money over the next three seasons.

I understand the statistic known by the acronym, BABIP. But, I am not sure this proves that Swisher was unlucky in 2008. Maybe he just stunk?

We might be debating semantics here to some extent, but when I think of baseball and luck, I think of one-time incidents or, in the case of a pitcher, a player who leaves the game after 7 or 8 innings with a lead only to see the bullpen blow it. Some seasons this seems to happen to some pitchers much more frequently than others. Say a pitcher gets 33 starts and he is denied five or six wins because of the bullpen blowing it – that fits my definition of being unlucky.

But, in the case of Swisher, we find a player that appeared in 153 games, with 497 official at-bats and nearly 600 plate appearances. Such a huge sample of work makes it impossible for luck to have played any role in his final stats. He just had a lousy season. Of his 109 hits, 46 were for extra bases, hence his .410 SLG. But, his OPS+ of 92 was terrible. His OBP was .332. His 135 strikeouts were awful.

To me, bad luck is when a player is out three weeks with a pulled hamstring and then, when he returns, he gets hit with a pitch his first time up at the plate and suffers a broken wrist.

Nick Swisher batting less than his weight over 153 games, with an OPS+ among the worst in the league and all the while making $7 million doesn’t fit my definition of an unlucky player. He wasn’t a very good player in 2008.

Jack,

I don't think you understand BABIP, as you say. Swisher had the highest line-drive % (LD%) of his career, and the lowest BABIP of his career. This is the definition of "bad luck". A general rule is that BABIP will be 100-120 points higher than a player's LD%. Swisher's LD% was 20.9%, meaning his BABIP would be expected to be .309-.329. It was .251.

For comparison, his 2007 LD% was 17.5% and his BABIP was .308. He was slightly lucky in '07. Batting average is highly variable year-to-year.

I assure you I have no bias here - I'm not a Yankee fan, am indifferent to the Yankees, am not related to Brian Cashman and don't love or hate Swisher. This is just objective analysis.

Jack, the Seattle SuperSonics moved to Oklahoma City because the state of Washington and the city of Seattle refuse to help the Sonics build a new arena after they already build a new baseball stadium for the Mariners and a new football stadium for the Seahawks. If they wanted to keep the Sonics in Seattle so badly, they should have find a way to keep the team in Seattle and build a new arena for them to play. The Yanks weren't going anywhere. They pay for the construction of the new Yankee Stadium, but they also got money from taxpayers for infrastructure surrounding the area. The Gaints,Cardinals and Mets also pay for the construction of their new stadiums. Teams should pay their own money to build new stadiums/arenas. But if a team is threating to move to another city, then taxpayers should pay for a new stadium/arena if they want to keep their team from moving.

Jack, I am not saying at all that Nick Swisher was only unlucky in 2008, and I don't think anyone is. He had a terrible season. What we are discussing, however, is projecting Nick Swisher forward. And there are multiple reasons to be optimistic, both statistical and "emotional," if you will.

Statistical:
1) He still drew a lot of walks.
2) Horrible BABIP in relation to his line-drive percentage, as we've discussed. And that is quantifiable luck. There's no getting around it. As James K. said, if you hit X number of line drives, you should get Y hits, and the formula didn't work for Swisher. Unless he was scouted, and therefore positioned, better than any player has been in history.

Emotional
1) First time getting traded - it shook him up, according to friends.
2) Hitting leadoff threw him off, too.
3) Poor relationship with Ozzie Guillen

Now, will he become thrown off again if, say, he gets booed at the Yankees opener? Perhaps. Will he not feel welcomed enough by Joe Girardi? Perhaps. But on the statistical side, at least, there's reason to think he can be better.

Ken, I knew it was only a matter of time before someone wrote "Jack,I don't think you understand BABIP . . . ." I understand exactly what the statistic represents. I just don't think it indicates that Swisher will be any better in 2009 than he was in 2008.

Why is it that the line drives of the best hitters fall to the field while those of "unlucky" players like Swisher are hit at someone and caught? He had an awful lot of balls caught. Again, I have to go back and say that in my experience, when a player is in a slump, often he hits the ball hard but right at someone. Swisher did this for an entire season, thus he had a season-long slump.

Ken, you make several valid points. Some of those line drives just HAVE to drop this year. I'm not sure that I agree on the emotional aspect of his play since New York and Yankee Stadium fans (not to mention the media, front office, etc) have been known to chew up players that can't tune out the emotional aspects.

I looked up some stats on Swisher and found that he is most productive offensively when he plays the outfield. But he is strongest defensively when he plays 1B. In fact, Melky is a better OF than Swisher, based on the stats that I reviewed.

Dennis, your philosophy on expending taxpayer monies to fund new stadium construction would effectively reward blackmail. I believe in Seattle, Washington, the public would have needed to impose new taxes on itself. This is never an easy sell.

James K: Why is it simply bad luck for a player to hit line drives all season at outfielders? Why isn't some of it a lack of skill? Aren't batters supposed to hit it where they ain't? Don't the best players find a way to do this? Shouldn't someone getting paid $7 million a season be able to make certain adjustments to prevent such a thing from happening over the course of 600 plate appearances. So, is it lack of luck or lack of skill?

Just asking.

Jack,

If you read my comment more closely, you would have seen that I presented Swisher's 2007 LD% and BABIP, which showed that he was either slightly lucky or luck neutral that season. Bad luck happens man, it's just the way it is. I don't really know how else to explain it.

I think you're being a devil's advocate and not making an effort to understand the correlation between LD% and BABIP. This is not something I just invented in my mom's basement - it's been researched ad nauseam by people a lot smarter than I. Do you have something personal against Swisher or something?

Luck plays a big role in baseball, even over the long term.

Jack why are you so concerned about how much money Swisher is owed? First of all as I said yesterday it is much less than what Giambi made. Second that lesser amount is being applied to get a top flight pitcher. Third ticket prices aren't going down regardless of what the players make, so you shouldn't care. Fourth, the Yankees gave up absolutely nothing to get him, so he has little risk and potential of great reward.
You also haven't presented a case at all as to exactly who the Yankees should have acquired or moved to first base since they don't have one and need one. I really don't want to hear Casey Blake who is not the answer to the Yankees lack of run production. You obviously don't think he would be an upgrade over a washed-up Jason Giambi and a Matsui or Damon platoon which smacks of desperation.
I think both James K and Ken have made legitimate cases that not only did Swisher have a poor year last year, but part of that was due to bad luck. And, yes, you can hit line drives hard and right at somebody that is why they have defensive alignments for each player. Swisher obviously played exactly to the weaknesses in his scouting reports and as far as him making adjustments, it is up to the coaching staff to recognize something is wrong and bring it to his attention, the fact that he wasn't welcomed by Guillen probably didn't do much for him in Chicago.

Sandy, as hard as try, I cannot understand your points.

1. I am in favor of the Yankees spending as much as it takes to field a championship team. I don't worry about ticket prices and have never mentioned them, although you seem to do that a lot of the time. I just don't like to see the team throw money down a rathole.

2. Cashman has made terrible moves early before, seemingly to insure he has a "need" taken care of. In other words, he jumps the gun. I have long said the Yankees should try to bring in Casey Blake on a two year deal. I also am not opposed to bringing in Teixeira.

3. Despite all the rhetoric, I still find it hard to believe that a guy can be unlucky over 150+ games by hitting line drives at people.

4. Blake put up numbers superior to Swisher.

5. If Swisher's just plain unlucky, that's a scary thought. Especially since it could continue as a Yankee.

6. This nonsense about Swisher not being welcomed in Chicago is also scary. If he's really that fragile, I have to wonder how he can survive in the pressure cooker that is the NYY. Just wait until Ken, George King, Joel Sherman, et al start writing columns about him and how the Yankees are now stuck with a lemon for the next three years.

7. Sandy, I think Ken has made the point time after time that Yankee fans SHOULD care about the length of a player's contract and the financial terms of it because it affects roster flexibility and the team's ability to trade the player. Why don't you think any of this is important, especially after the team had to endure many terrible contracts in recent years, a fact that hurt the ballclub?

8. James K., I have to say again that I understand the statistics you are using. I just don't think that all of Swisher's problems can be attributed to what they show. I think there is more to what went wrong for him than hitting line drives at people for an entire season and a lack of love in Chicago.

And yes, there is a lot of Devil's Advocate stuff going on here. But, I'm also not completely sold on the trade or ready to give Cashman an award for pulling it off.

Offense isn't everything.
I'm hoping Swish-X-Gardner is better D than G-Bobby-Melk.
They'll hit enough.

Maybe Jack could focus on the Submission Error problem....