General managers meetings: The best GMs, 2008
Greetings from Dana Point, Calif.! On my flight here Sunday, they showed "Mamma Mia!" When I think of that movie, I think of Brian Cashman, for this reason (scroll down to the eighth paragraph). And guess who was on my flight? No, not Carl Pavano, thank goodness, but Cashman.
I took it as a sign, what with Cashman ready to kick off the next phase of his offseason today. Especially since the next movie on the plane was "Get Smart." We all know the Yankees have a truck full of money to spend this winter. They had best use it wisely, or else, in 2014, we're going to be discussing how "the Yankees have $130 million of bad contracts coming off the books."
Anyway, at precisely this moment last year, I posted this, my list of the 10 best GMs. I gave Pat Gillick the top spot, and I would certainly keep him there, except that his retirement is going to become official today.
So here's our 2008 list, with another year of info to add to the equation. I tried to balance 2008 with the GMs' overall body of work. Last year's rankings are in parentheses.
1. Billy Beane, Oakland (2). Yes, yes, Beane gave up on the 2008 season in July, trading away Rich Harden and Joe Blanton. A lot of you disapproved, I recall, which prompted this item. I still say that Beane has done more with less than pretty much anyone in professional sports in the last 20 years. Perhaps the Rays are on their way to topping Beane's run. But not yet. And the A's are now regarded as having one of the industry's best farm systems. They'll be back very soon.
2. Theo Epstein, Boston (5). The reason he doesn't get number one is because he has much more room for error than Beane, and he has occasionally needed such room. Speaking of which, anyone want Julio Lugo? When you look at the team Epstein has built through drafting and development, when they can plug in players like Justin Masterson and Jed Lowrie, you see why Cashman is envious.
3. Mark Shapiro, Cleveland (3). Even in a season when the Indians disappointed, you see why Shapiro is so respected. He acted quickly to trade CC Sabathia, getting a premium for dealing him before the All-Star break. Meanwhile, last year at this time, his fellow GMs were trying to buy low on Cliff Lee, but Shapiro, adhering to the old "You can never have too much pitching" theory, held onto Lee. That worked out pretty well. The Indians are primed to make another playoff run in 2009.
4. Larry Beinfest/Michael Hill, Florida (NR). So here's what happened with these guys and my rankings last year. Hill had just been named GM, with Beinfest getting promoted to "president, baseball operations." But when the GMs spoke during the media availabilty at the meetings in Orlando, Beinfest represented the Marlins. This was essentially a title promotion, like those Rebecca dispersed in this episode of "Cheers." I don't want to ignore what the Marlins have accomplished the past seven years, with the same people running things. While constantly trading away established players - they've already started another cycle, with the Mike Jacobs trade - Florida keeps putting forth competitive, exciting clubs. If the Marlins can ever finally get that new ballpark in Miami, or move, and actually spend some real money, they'd be even more of a force - a possibility that has to terrify the Mets, in particular.
5. Doug Melvin, Milwaukee (6). This year, he used his strong farm system to land Sabathia and give the Brewers their first playoff berth since 1982. He'll be facing an interesting challenge, as his amateur scouting guru Jack Zduriencik has left to become the Mariners' GM.
6. Kevin Towers, San Diego (4). He dropped because of a brutal 2008, in which his big acquisition, Jim Edmonds, not only flopped, but thrived with the Cubs, after the Padres let him go. And now Towers has been charged with the task of shopping, and probably trading, Jake Peavy. So there'll be some rebuilding going on at PETCO Park. More often than not, Towers has connected on big trades and scrap-heap bullpen additions.
7. Ken Williams, White Sox (10). Two winters ago, Williams made this trade and this trade, and neither one panned out for a full season. Only in 2008 did Williams look smart for those, as well as this. Trades have been Williams' strong point; he struggles more with the amateur draft.
8. Andrew Friedman, Tampa Bay (NR). Technically, the Rays don't have a GM, but Friedman, the executive vice president of baseball operations, is the equivalent. We know all about this guy, after the Rays' remarkable 2008 run. If Tampa Bay makes the postseason again next year, Friedman will continue to climb upward on this list.
9. Jim Hendry, Cubs (NR). Hendry's strength used to be throwing money at problems, yet this past season, he displayed impressive savvy in picking up Edmonds and Reed Johnson for virtually nothing and turning them into useful parts. He also was rewarded for his faith and financial investment in Jeff Samardzija.
10. Dave Dombrowski, Detroit (7). Man oh man, did his moves for '08 turn out to be brutal. Yes, Miguel Cabrera hit, but Dontrelle Willis flopped profoundly, as did Edgar Renteria, and the bullpen was unpseakably bad. The Tigers will likely look to cut payroll this winter as Dombrowski tries to put this Humpty Dumpty of a team back together again.
In addition to Gillick, two GMs left the list - our very own New Yorkers, Brian Cashman (eighth last year) and Omar Minaya (ninth). I had liked what Cashman was doing with the organization, but a) you can't ignore the disappointments of '08, in particular Robinson Cano's performance with a long-term contract and the fact that Kei Igawa is officially a complete bust, and b) if the Yankees just start throwing money around this winter, as mentioned earlier, then I'm not sure what sort of position the franchise will be in, big-picture.
As for Omar, he really did a great job giving up so little for Johan Santana, even if he was aided by the Yankees' and Red Sox's refusal to go there. Nevertheless, it's hard to reward the architect of two straight collapses.
I'll be here until Thursday afternoon, and I intend to post frequently. Keep coming around.
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Comments (24)
I don't get your take on the Sabthia trade, Ken. How did the Indians get a premium on C.C.? They traded him for a power-hitting outfielder who's already 23, hasn't played above AA, and whose bat went ice-cold (.299 OBP) after the trade. They traded C.C. straight-up for LaPorta and no can say whether or not LaPorta will ever pan out. I think, if anything, the Indians sold low on Sabathia. As highly regarded as LaPorta is, the Indians traded him straight-up for Sabathia and they should have gotten more.
Dombrowski should be dropped to the bottom of the ocean -- not just the bottom of the list. He should be wiped off this list because he (psychotically?) thought Dontrelle Willis was still a good pitcher and that he could survive in the AL. I wouldn't be surprised if Willis has to go the Rick Ankiel route his control is so bad. But worse than signing all these worthless players is that Dombrowski decimated his farm system in a win-now mindset, but not only didn't they win, they were awful. So he traded away three high-ceiling prospects and got basically NOTHING in return. And that's the ultimate screw-up for a GM.
I await the bottom five GM list....
from Dave Pinto at baseballmusings.com
http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/030033.php
A's OBP 2008 article...
They're good at not swinging at bad pitches. The problem is that they're bad swinging at good pitches. The whole point of developing good selectivity, good process, is to get the batters better pitches to hit, so they can smack the ball around. If a team's hitters don't have the talent to execute on good pitches, then why have them on the team?
Ken, I would make Theo No. 1 because he has the rings and Beane doesn't. I don't have a problem with you leaving Cashman or Minaya out of the top 10. I totally agree with baileywalk on Dombrowski. Dombrowski made the big trade for Willis and Miguel Cabrera last off-season and in the process made his farm system thin. Cabrera had to switch from 3rd base to 1st base, but you figure he will hit regardless of his position. Willis meanwhile was awful this year to the point that the Tigers sent him down to A ball. Willis is owe $22 million over the next 2 years. Bonderman is owe $25 million over the next 2 years. And Robertson is owe $17 million over the next 2 years. All 3 pitchers were sign by Dombrowski, all 3 pitchers were either hurt or ineffective this year.
Bar none the worst move made last winter was the Dodgers signing Andruw Jones for all that money when no one else even made a decent offer. Now Jones would like to go back to the braves and end his career. Fat chance that happens!!
Miguel Cabrera will probably wind up being the Tigers DH when all this shakes out and might yet make a positive contribution to that team. Between him and Willis if 100 pounds of weight was lost that would help improve their efforts considerably.
Ken do you see Gerry Hunsinker ever taking another GM job, or do you think he is happy doing what he does with Tampa. He was as responsible as anyone for their success this year.
Is Jim Beattie present and looking for another GM job? Any other candidates circling and looking for a GM or senior team position that are noteworthy names?
Don't forget that Hendry still owes $48 mil over the next three years to Kosuke Fukudome. And Soriano wasn't the best use of $136 mil, considering you got a leadoff hitter who shouldn't hit leadoff and is brutal defensively. Yes, nice pickups on Reed Johnson and Jim Edmonds, but that does not overlook his many bad moves. And, his farm system is in decline. And the GM has to maintain responsibility for that. And look at the Cubs' first round draft choices since he's been GM? OMG, not good at all. Jason Marquis will make just short of $10 mil this year. Jason Marquis, Ken. He put out a team that is almost all right-handed hitting last year with little speed. His teams have lost 9 consecutive playoff games.
I have to agree. I think Ricciardi deserves to be on this list more than Dombrowski or Hendry. In fact, you didn't even have anything nice to say about Dombrowski, how is he 10th? Gillick should be on because this seems to be more about 2008 accomplishments, not 2009 predictions. But if you want predictions, look for Sabean to redeem himself next year. He has tons of money and tons of young pitching to work with, plus he only has one bad contract, which may turn out to not be so bad if Barry can pick-up '09 where he left off in '08.
Bob - Look for Mike Arbuckle, who just resigned from the Phils after 16 seasons, to be a hot commodity - if not this year then next. After Amaro got the job he knew he was blocked from the GM position. This is a guy who was responsible for drafting Rollins, Utley, Howard, Burrell, Myers and Hamels. He was also integral in the pick-ups/drafts of Werth and Victorino.
C-B:
Thanks re: Arbuckle. I've heard nothing but good comments about all of the Phils management (unlike the Mets organziation). The Phils are willing to first be successful and then share the credit as oposed to arguning about short term control and responsibility and having no success to share.
baileywalk, I'm gonna respectively disagree on Cleveland's return on Sabathia. Time will tell.
As for Dombrowski, he has built two pennant-winning teams. As I said, the greater body of work matters, too. Agreed that he was absolutely horrid this past year.
Bob, the winter meetings have more of that "job fair" feel than these meetings. That said, I can't envision someone of Beattie's stature and experience trolling a hotel lobby for jobs.
Ken
Do you think the Mets are looking at a Tatis/Murphy platoon in leftfield for next season? I think it's a risky proposition on both ends but I also understand their priorities probably lie elsewhere for the time being.
If they're still looking at it as a position of need, what do you think of them pursuing Baldelli? If he continues to have health struggles, they could always use Tat-phy or Murph-is as a fallback plan.
9. Jim Hendry, Cubs (NR). Hendry's strength used to be throwing money at problems, yet this past season, he displayed impressive savvy in picking up Edmonds and Reed Johnson for virtually nothing and turning them into useful parts. He also was rewarded for his faith and financial investment in Jeff Samardzija.
"Hendry's strength used to be throwing money at problems"? Hendry's strength is in trades, not free agency. Ryan Dempster is another reclamation project, by the way, but you're really downplaying Trader Jim's record, both good and bad. Some of the good: Getting Aramis Ramirez and Kenny Lofton from Pittsburgh for a song, dumping Todd Hundley on the Dodgers for Mark Grudzielanek and Eric Karros, sending Hee Seop Choi to the Marlins for Derrek Lee, getting Michael Barrett for Damian Miller. Bad: Farnsworth for Novoa, Maddux for Izturis, Juan Pierre, Sosa for, essentially, Fontenot.
Billy Beane isn't anywhere near the top GM. Not even close. I'll be generous and put in at No. 10, but that's pushing it. Theo Epstein is the best today. Cashman and Minaya are outside the top ten. Shapiro is up there, maybe No. 2.
Andy, the Mets will pursue another RH OF. Juan Rivera - someone in that class.
Zach, fair criticism.
JMH, Shapiro has made the playoffs once and he's #2, and Beane has made the playoffs five times and he's lucky to be at #10?
Theo Epstein is # 1 due to the ability to succeed under pressure....external and internal...and live up to high expectations in a competitive division.
That type of pressure cooker does not exist outside Boston and New York, where you are expected to win and are savaged in the press on a daily basis if you do not.
I cannot say where I put Beane on the list. He needs an added theorem or adjustment now that other teams with more money apply his methodology. I give him # 2 for the decade, but probably # 3 to # 5 as current GM.
Zach how did you get the font? Did you copy and paste from word?? I will have to try that!
I dont remember last year but I better have hoped to disagree with Minaya. He is absolutely one of the worst GM's. (meaning in the bottom half, not necasarily the bottom five)
I give him zero credit for spending the most money on Free Agents. Anyone in the world could have signed Pedro/Beltran. Are we going to give credit to whichever GM signs Manny?? No, its just most money rules.
But did he spend that money wisely? Pedro has been an absolute disaster. He gave one very good year and three bad ones. Outside of year one, Beltran has performed, but Minaya paid him millions more than the highest paid Free Agent from the fall before (Guerrero) when Beltran wasn't nearly the player Vlade was.
He did get Maine and has done some other good things, but the Castillio signing was absolutely horrendous, and everyone but him knew it at the time. He handled the Willie firing terribly, and we'll see how he handles the bullpen scenerio this year. Overall, I think the Mets could do a lot better than Omar. Personally, I would have fired him.
Getting Oliver Perez was an awesome move as well.
Oh, and I do have a tough time giving the #1 slot to Beane. The way he overmanages his manager to me seems a little ridiculous. Ken, can a well respected manager like Pinella or LaRussa or even Charlie Manuel ever work for him?
If the answer is no, then that is VERY telling.
Ken, you are right. I think Shapiro is No. 2 as of right now and moving forward. But, taken as a whole, he is No. 11. Beane has operated in a weak divison (for many of his years) and he has won what amounts to diluted "titles." Why the media has a love affair with him, I really don't know. He is good, but great, no way.
I personally think Shapiro is better right now. You buy a used car for what it is going to do, not what it has done.
OK, JMH, but I'm not buying a used car. LOL. The media has a "love affair" with Beane because he is excellent at his job. Currently, the A's have one of the best farm systems in baseball. They are poised to win again, and soon. In their division, they did very well while competing against the Mariners in 2000 (with A-Rod) and 2001 (with MVP Ichiro) and the 2002 Angels, who won it all. The division has been weaker in the last four years, I'll concede that.
Richie, interesting question about the seasoned manager. I'd say no, they probably couldn't peacefully coexist with Beane. Maybe that's a strike against Beane.
Ken, I tossed you that "Beane is a media darling" softball because I really like and admire you - and you hit it out of the park! You never disappoint this baseball fan.
Ken, I know you dont put much stock in the playoffs...and I agree with you for the most part. But you never really got too deeply involved in the how much does playoffs mean conversation as far as a manager and GM goes.
And I'm wondering if Beane could have done more to give the A's some success in the playoffs. I think the problem I have with him is there is no leadership from anyone BUT Beane. At least as far as I can tell. During the great Giambi years, those A's would routinely choke in the playoffs. As I've documented here before, there were four key lack of 2nd grade baseball fundamental plays that killed the A's come postseason time. So my two big strikes against him are that managers cannot work for him, and he never got that veteran that could teach all the young guys how to play when most needed.
He builds a fine system, but needs to finish the deal one of these years.
Well, Richie, I think what Billy has done, in dealing veterans to re-stock his farm system the last year, is attempt to build a deeper team that can go further into the playoffs. In accordance with that, he's trying to develop a multi-talented club, unlike the lumbering, unathletic teams from earlier this decade. I think to some extent, he couldn't afford that wise veteran of which you write - but I think your questions are valid. We'll see how it plays out. In the meantime, IMHO, Beane has accomplished great things with minimal resources.
Jim, I always enjoy the give-and-take - good mental exercise :)
Epstien didn't sign Lugo or Drew for that matter he was gone at the time, he's number one. He has to deal with the pressure of a town that expects nothing less than a championship EVERY YEAR. He is THE smartest man in baseball right now. Because of him the sox will be the favorites to win it all for years to come