Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

Big Yes on Tex, not sold on Lowe.

Doesn't an effective Lowe require Greg Maddux to be alongside him on the bench wet nursing him during games?

Are the Yanks prepared to make a twofer offer?

Cashman wanted Posada back, but not at the money and years the Yanks sign Posada to. Rivera was a no-brainer because even thought he will turn 39 on Nov. 29, he still on top of his game. Cashman didn't want A-Rod back, but was overruled when A-Rod told Boras to take a hike and beg Hank and Hal to bring him back to the Yanks. Cashman had a chance to leave the Yanks at the end of this season when his contract expired, but he didn't. He knows now what he is getting into with Hank and Hal. As for the free agent market, the Yanks will offer a insane contract to Sabathia.

For Lowe to be effective, the infield defense has to be strong.

I don't want to beat up on Jeter again, but between shortstop and first base you will have Lowe rolling his eyes and going crazy as someone mentioned before. In order for Lowe to be a god deal, you also need Tex at 1B and Jeter to be able to make more plays (which is looking less likely as he gets older). ARod to SS, Jeter to 2B - and filnd a Charlie Hayes type for 2009 to play 3B?

Well, Ken, your model franchise -- the Red Sox -- did the same thing when they missed the playoffs in 2006. That off-season they went on a spending spree. They gave J.D. Drew a huge (and long) contract, they spent over 100 mil for Dice-K and they signed Lugo to a pretty hefty deal. As far as I remember, they were universally praised for this. And, as it turned out, they won the whole thing in 2007.

Dice-K worked out, Drew kinda worked out, and Lugo didn't.

But all the same... Theo's reaction to losing was to spend, spend, spend. That doesn't mean he wasn't going to continue to develop talent and spend on the draft, etc.

If I had my way, the Yankees never would have re-signed A-Rod and this team would truly be moving toward a home-grown core. But we both know that's not going to happen, and maybe it shouldn't. The Yankees don't have a Tex or a C.C. in their farm system, and if they are basing their judgement of both players on real, solid ideas -- and not just a brash "give them whatever the hell they want" kind of thinking -- then I suppose it's hard to argue against.

So while I agree Cashman's plan has a crack in it now, I don't think it's totally broken, and the spending spree of this off-season is probably a necessary evil.

BWalk - part of the reason that the Red Sox could pay up for Drew and DiceK was that they had refused to pay up for Lowe, Damon and Pedro in the previous year(s). The Sox unloaded their older and high priced talent while the Yankees rewarded theirs (Damon, Posada) with long term contracts that they are stuck with for another year.

Cashman should have left town - the Steinbrenner kids are going to destroy his project right in the middle of the plan.

Damon wasn't the Yankees, and his contract was actually quite reasonable. The Yankees (I assume) knew they would probably lose Posada to the Mets and while four years was one year too long, Posada to that point had never gotten hurt. They also had no way to replace Posada, and their worse nightmare came true: Molina as a starting, black-hole-in-the-lineup catcher.

Anyway, I just feel like there's a double standard when talking about the Yanks and Sox. The Sox admittedly don't spend as much as the Yankees.

I suppose what I was trying to say was that when you have the money the Sox and Yanks do, you're completely justified in spending a lot if the player is elite and you truly think you're going to get value or close to it. That doesn't mean give Manny a six-year contract at 37, because it would be totally irresponsible. But when good, young players (such as C.C. and Tex) are available, why WOULDN'T you go after them? Calculated risks are fine. And you can still put the relatively smaller costs into development for when things inevitable don't work out as planned.

from Tyler Kepner today..http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/12/sports/baseball/12kepner.html?ref=sports

“The more players you can develop, the more you can keep from being desperate on the free-agent market,” Cashman said in November 2006. “You almost never get fair value on a free agent, so you try to put yourself in a position where you don’t have to go shopping.”

The Yankees are about to go shopping again — and after missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993, they are desperate.

When Cashman warned against splurging in 2006, he was mindful of his experience in 2004. That was the year the Yankees reacted to a bitter playoff loss to the Boston Red Sox by signing Carl Pavano and Jaret Wright, and then trading for and signing Randy Johnson. The Yankees did make an international signing that winter, Kei Igawa, who has been a bust.

Seeing what the Sox do with Varitek, a long-time fan favorite, will also say something about that organization. Not only do I not think that Theo will give him two years; I seriously doubt that Varitek will be the starting catcher on Opening Day.

Eek. The "too many comments" error hath returned despite numerous cut-and-pastes and refreshes.

Anyway, what I was trying to write is that Varitek made it easy for Theo by not hitting at all -- now he is totally justified in not bringing him back or low-balling him. It would have been a tougher decision if he had at least shown some signs of life.

JE - the Sox will have to draw the line in the same place that they drew it with Lowe, Damon and Martinez and follow the moneyed version of "Moneyball", or their successful business model is being violated.

Per our blog conversations on paying people for past contributions - when you know the performance will not be there, there is no justification for bidding against yourself for Varitek (especially for the ridiculous four year contract proposal offered by his agent).

So it begins, the Red Sox have frozen ticket prices at 2008 levels. The first time is 14 years they haven't tried to bleed their idiot fans. Now, does that mean they hold the line on salaries and don't go after top name free agents. They don't need Tex or another starting pitcher.
As far as not overpaying for Drew, no one else even would consider offering him that contract and he opted out merely because the word came through the grapevine Theo would give him a nice raise. Dice-K may be worth his salary but he isn't worth his salry plus the $50 they sent to japan for his rights. I don't care what his stats say. He couldn't make it through the entire 2007 season and he can't make it through the sixth inning in most games he pitches. Nobody knows why they signed Lugo. The biggest clue he stinks is that Tampa unloaded him to the Dodgers after three years of trying and the Dodgers, who need a SS

Agreed, Bob. Still, I would not be surprised that, assuming that the Dodgers are unable to retain Casey Blake, consider moving Martin to third so that Joe Torre will have Varitek (and all of his wonderful intangibles!) be his starting catcher!

Ken, I'm on the belief that if you're going to spend a ton, spend it on best. 60 million is a lot of money for a pretty pedestrian pitcher like Lowe. He was solid in the N.L. but had an ERA over 5.00 the last year in the A.L. I think he's still getting paid for his clutch performance in the 04 playoffs. I'd rather pony up and spend the money on CC, at double the cost and get excellence. Also, he doesn't strike out too many guys so I'm pretty surprised you're take on Lowe. If I'm going to give 60 million, I'd rather get Burnett. Though again, I'd rather pay for best and skim elsewhere.

I dont think the Yanks need Texiera. I think I will email you while you're at Sports Illustrated and say Told You So in four years.

I agree wit you, Ken. The high mileage on CC's arm is a big red light for me. Also, you have to wonder, at least a little, about these guys who can play but really may or may not be in tip-top shape. Lowe's a winner. It would be a Jimmy Key-like signing.

And here's a question: what if anything can we reasonably expect out of Hughes, Kennedy, and Joba this year? I think Joba and Hughes will actually hold down their rotation slots fine, and with Wang and Pettitte and free-agent-to-be-named could turn this thing around. I also think Kennedy will probably be traded. Anyone else?

Ken a comment from your last blog. It is definitely the fault of the three voters who did that and they should publicly explain why they dont know what a rookie is. They also should be punished and lose voting privledges for a year. This should be taken seriously as it is a huge honor. I KNOW it wouldn't happen to you. Though I think the bigger problem is how if you vote him...dont you vote him #1?!?!? Soto was really good but Volquez was dominant for a long time early on.

And I still blame the writers for Palmeiro winning the Gold Glove. You should have told the coaches who to vote for. My way of saying my bad, instead of the Fonzie, "I was wro...wroo...wrooo, wronnn. wrooooonnnn,"

Lastly, the Yankes change and then change back was the Mr. Burns bowling episode reference right?

Lowe's a "winner", Tim N? How so? I don't seem to remember any World Series games played in Chavez Ravine while he was on the team. Trust me, if Derek Jeter is playing SS next season, then a sinkerball pitcher starting 32-34 games for you next season is NOT what you want.

Don't get me wrong: I like Lowe. Yes, throwing a four-year contract may at first blush look sane compared to six and seven-year deals, but they remain risky. Does the name "Carl Pavano" ring a bell? Unlike Zito, CC is one of the top five pitchers in baseball and he does not have a history of arm trouble. The potential reward justifies the risk.

"Stop everything! I don't remember writing a check for bowling!"
"Uh, sir, that's your boweling."
"Ah yes, that's always important"
"Stop everything! I don't remember writing a check for bowling!"

Sandy - check out baseballmusings.com.

It appears that the Red Sox share of the resale market for tickets via the MLB deal with stubhub will more than make up for freezing primary ticket sales - and perhaps lead to market pricing of all games.

I think rather than overworked, CC has proven himself a horse and at 28 has 4-5 number 1 starter season left in the tank. The Yanks need a number 1, and Cashman is basically being told to spend it. May as well gamble on the best. Hopefully for the Mets it keeps them from overpaying to snatch Lowe.

Tex is a top flight player, and a perfect fit. But it seems the Yanks might have to view 1B as vacation spot for some aging players. Like most, I see Posada as real anchor around Cashman's flexibility regarding 1B. Will Posada be ready to head behind the plate by spring? Plus, I think the Angels know how important Tex could be to their lineup going forward post-Anderson and Vlad and need to push real hard on Tex.

As this point the Yanks will have to keep spending since it's what they've said they will do. All the high payroll teams need their superstars in order to compete. But to me, quite simply, the Sox have been just a little better lately because they've been able to squeeze more and better production out of home grown players than the Yanks. As Bob Tufts mentioned, Epstein has really done well rotating players and knowing whom to give up on, and whom to invest in. Cashman has some good chips in place, and the mix he creates this off-season we'll shape the Yanks for the next 3-4 seasons. No pressure Brian. Take your time.

I thought Lowe was a joke until the '04 playoffs. But he's tough. He's not an ace, but he can win big games. He'd be a great fit as a #4 guy on the Yanks.

The one thing I will say that CC brings is a true ace, which... unless you think Joba is going to come along faster than predicted... the Yanks have lacked for some time now.

The Red Sox don't generated the revenue out of Fenway Park that the Yanks will generated at the new Yankee Stadium. The capacity at Fenway Park dwarfs the capacity of the new Yankee Stadium.
If the Yanks are going to replace Jeter at shortstop, then they need someone who can field, but it cannot be a player who can't hit a lick. A slick fielding shortstop who hits under .200 won't cut it for me. He doesn't have to hit a lot, but it can't be someone who does nothing at the plate.
Varitek is done as a player. Theo probably will only offer a 1 maybe 2 year contract to Variitek. Since Boras is his agent, Varitek is going to want more than that. The question I have for the Red Sox is who's the starting catcher. Kevin Cash is not the answer and I don't think the Red Sox have anyone in the farm system who can be a starting catcher. The Rangers have plenty of catchers to traded and they would want pitching in return. I don't know if the Red Sox are willing to traded any of their top pitching prospects to go get one of the catchers from the Rangers.
Posada wants to be a catcher. He told Michael Kay on YES "Centerstage" that he does not want to play 1st base. And Francesa said on the air the same thing.

Bob I forgot baseball is now scalping tickets. Red Sox fans pay big money for "unavailable" tickets.

1. The Posada contract was ridiculous when the Yankees agreed to it and more so now. He was coming off a career year and no sane person could have thought he would ever duplicate those numbers. Many pitchers do not like throwing to him. The team should have called his bluff about the Mets.

2. Four years for Lowe is too much. I understand the risk of Lowe considering the state of the Yankees infield, but I might be willing to go with him for no more than three years.

3. Teixeira will never produce a return for the envisioned 6 years/$120 million contract. He's a nice player - a very good player, but he isn't the type of dominating player that deserves such a contract. I hope the Yankees pass on him.

4. Try to sign Casey Blake for 2 years/$15-17 million. He makes a heck of a lot more sense.

5. No on C.C. I would rather take a risk with AJ for two or three years than CC for six.

6. Cashman is too concerned with what is said about him and how he looks. He has a thin skin for a GM. I just read an article about Roger Ailes and he said he doesn't care what anyone thinks/says about him. That's the attitude that Cashman should have.

7. Posada is making $52+million. Considering what he did this year, he should shut his mouth and eagerly play wherever the club tells him to play. He has a big mouth.

8. Read murraychass.com and see exactly how Bud Selig has manipulated the sale of various MLB teams despite all his denials to the contrary.

You bring up some good points, Jack, but you appear to assume that the Yankees can grab players (Blake, Lowe, and Burnett) with low-ball offers, at least in terms of years. What happens if these players demand at least one additional year. Is Burnett at four years really a better risk than CC at six (or even seven)? I certainly don't think so.

1. Casey Blake resigned and avoided arbitration for 2008, agreeing to $6.1 million. $7.5 - $8.5 per year for two years is a pretty nice raise. He's no spring chicken. That's not that lowball.

2. Burnett for three or four years sounds a lot better than CC for six or seven. Tens of millions of dollars better. They are both risky. I elect to go with the "cheaper" risk.

3. I wouldn't sign Lowe for more than three years and think he can be had for that length. If he can't, go in another direction. I am not giving up on Kennedy, Hughes or a couple of the other kids. I don't want to bulk up on the expensive free agents. I learned from Pavano and some of the others.

Its being reported on the Yankees web site and on WFAN that the Yanks have re-sign Marte to a 3-year contract with a club option for 2012. The Yanks decline the $6 million option on Marte. Marte didn't pitch well he came to the Yanks in July. I know Ken and JMH wanted the Yanks to let Marte go and take the draft picks.
As I said before, Burnett is inconsistent and he often gets hurt for his career. Sabathia has been healthy for the most part his whole career. The innings he has pitch the last 2 years and his weight do worry me about Sabathia. But Sabathia is more of a sure thing than Burnett.

Oh, and a $45 million contract for Lowe isn't anything to sniff at. It's damn good money and more than he might be able to get anywhere else. I am not too sure that this terrible economy won't come into play very soon with the 2008 free agent class.

I think CC should wear those IP's as a badge of honor and tell interested clubs that I finish what I start. I'd rather sign a guy that goes 9, and has more IP's than a guy who is satisfied with 7.

The Yankees did not make a mistake in re-signing Posada and Rivera. The mistake with Posada was that more years were offered than necessary. Rivera did not need to make 40% more than the highest reliever. At $13m a year, he would have still easily been the highest paid reliever. It seems like the Yankees cave when it comes to negotiating. If a present Yankee enjoys being a Yankee, he should not need to be blown away to remain. Rivera and Posada would have stayed for less. If Posada wouldn't have, the Yankees should have let him go. That is the difference between the Red Sox and The Yankees. The Red Sox do not generally overbid and know when to let go. The Sox let Damon go because they knew his defense was declining. Yes he could still hit but was a dh in the making. Now the Yankees are trying to figure out where to play the guy.
The Yankees now have a lot of dhs and first base candidates. However, the fact remains that moving a bad defensive player from one position to first just means that the bad defense is being moved to first. While the Yankees are stuck with certain players, they cannot rectify that by avoiding filling positions with players suited for those positions. The Yankees need Tex or someone of his ilk. The Yankees need to replace the rapidly dwindling left handed hitting characters and find a real first baseman. Casey Blake is just another utility guy. In one year, Damon can be an FA. Play Damon at DH this year and then move the biggest defensive weakness there next. Swallow the $ of mistakes and make better decisions future forth by obtaining younger and better suited talent. The Yankees need CC. All big contracts are a gamble so as might as well take a gamble on the lowest risk highest reward pitcher on the market. After that, the next pitcher should be acquired via a trade. No other FA is low enough risk to sign to the deals that are expected. Let everyone fight it out for guys like Lowe and Burnett while working behind the scenes on a trade for Liriano, Josh Johnson, Felix Hernandez, Greinke, et al. In fact, the Yankees could make two such trades and not sign CC if they are concerned about the commitment. The Yankees built there championships by trading for players who were on the cusp of greatness, not high salaried superstarts. Trade for Hermida and Johnson. Trade for Saltamacchia. Trade for Liriano and Cuddyer. Trade for Greinke and Dejesus. Tex cost too much? Trade for Laroche or Votto. Those are the type of deals that will make the Yankees champions again.

Didn't we just learn that Cashman is judicious when it comes to the length of contract signings? So what gives with Marte's three-year deal, particularly after the unimpressive numbers that he put up in the Bronx? What am I missing here?

I don't think anyone can enjoy giving a pitcher a 6 or 7 year contract for $20-$25 million a year. It is ridiculous and will never pay off. Ken ran the numbers months ago to prove the point.

Signing Marte for three years, if true, is also ludicrous. I guess whatever hopes I had for sanity in the Yankee front office was misplaced.

To me, here's what the Yanks should do this offseason:

1. Sign Sabathia.
I, too, am worried about heavy innings logged the last two years but the Yanks need him. We saw the young pitchers are clearly not ready and this was admitted by Cashman himself. Granted, CC may not be great at the end of a contract if he's given 6 years or around this but you have to take that chance. Also, he doesn't need to be dominant to help the Yankees the way he needed to be dominant for the Brewers to help them.

2. Sign Teixeira.
The lineup on this team, while it clearly underperformed last season, is no longer very good. This signing improved the defense at first(which we haven't had since Tino) and adds a good bat to the lineup. Not to mention signing him takes him away from the Angels and Red Sox who also could sorely use his bat and defense in the lineup.

3. Trade Cano/Sign Hudson
Although Cano has proven to be a good hitter despite a poor season last year, his defense is a liability and the Yanks have many holes to fill and need to improve their defense. Now, what do you get for Cano? Well, the Yanks need something of equal value back obviously but that depends on what other teams consider equal value right now. Yanks need help at CF and perhaps a young catcher who can learn under Posada.

4. Fill holes in trades
I think the Yanks do in fact need to acquire a young catcher to be groomed under Posada. If they can find a way to acquire Martin from the Dodgers or Saltamacchia from the Rangers catching glut that would be ideal. For CF, I like Cameron for a stopgap solution mostly because there really aren't any other good candidates to try for and Austin Jackson seems to need more minor league time before he's ready. I do like the idea of Dejesus but I wonder how high of a cost the Yanks would have to pay to get him.

Now I wouldn't mind taking a chance on an AJ Burnett and maybe Lowe since we're improving the defense with the moves above but I'm not really sure they need to get two high priced FA starters. I do like the idea of Manny as long as they can get him without committing to a large number of years and they can put him at DH. Also, all these moves don't address what to do with Damon, Matsui since these guys probably should just be good bench players for the Yanks at this point and not starters.

Following this plan would give you a better starting staff to go along with an already strong bullpen and an improved right side of the infield defensively/better lineup. You also have a young catcher getting groomed for the end of Posada's contract. The only thing that may need adding is possibly another OF depending on what they do with Abreu and how much left in the tank Damon and Matsui have.

As for needs, you have to get CC I would try to sign him for "only" 6 years. The Santana trade set the benchmark and CC's miracle run solidified his apparent worth. Johan is is WAY better shape, but that is the way it goes. With CC and Wang going that is a pretty damn good 1-2 punch. Fill out the rotation with Pettitte, Hughes and a mix of their young guys and 1-5 it is not that bad. I would move Joba to the bullpen and see how the year goes.

If they can get Teixeira for a reasonable amount then sign him. He will anchor 1st as well as fill some of the offensive holes left by Giambi and Abreu if they don't resign both.

AJ will not sign for less than four years as that is the offer on the table from the Blue Jays so no disrespect to the people here thinking tha he will sign for 2 or 3, but that is not happening. I just don't like Lowe for four years not even three, I would rather see what Kennedy, Aceves and others can do before I commit that amount to another new pitcher. If they get CC and have Wang and they keep Joba as a starter that leaves two spots open. One if they resign AJ or Lowe. That does not align with their getting younger and promoting from within plans.

So sign CC for whateve he wants and then see where the market is on the rest of the pitchers. If you can't sign Teixeira so be it. They can find someone to plug the hole for a year or two until they figure that position out.

baileywalk, I can assure you that I didn't praise Epstein for his signings of Drew and Lugo. The Dice-K signing was a different animal, as it was done for marketing reasons as well as baseball.

Richie, I can't get any Simpsons references by you...

Marte got 3 years from the Yankees because I guarantee some other team in need of a bullpen would have given it to him. The only pitcher I would give 4 or more years to is CC and I would think very hard about Dempster, the rest of them aren't good enough or healthy enough to get more than 3. But because pitching is in short supply Lowe and Burnett can name their price and some fool will meet it. As I have said on this board before Burnett stinks, his record and overall stats before this year is extremely mediocre and Toronto was overpaying him and until the contract year certainly didn't get what it paid for. Buyer beware of anyone who excels in the contract year. And that goes for 3rd basemen who date washed-up 50 year old pop singers as well.