Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

Have a happy and healthy New Year Ken!

By the way, just wondering, if you're on a low sodium diet, can you visit the salt caves (as seen in your 'secret' location)?
~H

Ken,

I hope you'll be at Teixeira's press conference to ask him about what kind of player he thinks that he will be in his mid-30s. ;)

Happy New Year.

There wasn't enough gloom around the New York baseball season Ken, so you need to subject yourself to Detroit one last time in 2008? That is one depressing city at the moment.

Have a good trip and a great New Year. Here's to hoping you at least include Alan Trammell on that ballot and better days for Detroit. Cheers.

At least Detroit has the Red Wings and the Pistons to look forward to because this past year the Tigers, Michigan Wolverines football and the Lions both stunk of the joint and the Big 3 automakers needed a bailout from the US government. At least the Wolverines won more games than the Lions who went 0-16. Combined the Wolverines and Lions this year are 3-25 with all 3 wins coming from the Wolverines.

Yeesh a trip to Key Biscayne followed by a miserable trip to Detroit.
What a difference a day makes. :(
Happy New Year anyway!

John Harper of the New York Daily News has the latest om Andy Pettitte from a person who has been in regular contact with the Yankees. Harper also wrote about the Mets offer to Derek Lowe and the Mets interest in Andruw Jones.
Here's the link.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/2008/12/30/2008-12-30_mets_playing_lowe_ball_with_derek.html

I just heard on WFAN that the Angels have sign reliever Brian Fuentes to a 2-year deal with a club option for 2011. No details yet on how much money Fuentes got from the Angels.
The Cubs sign infielder Aaron Miles to a 2-year deal worth $4.9 million. There are rumors that by signing Miles, the Cubs will trade Mark DeRosa.

Fuentes signed a 2-year deal worth $17.5 million with the Angels. Fuentes will make $8.5 million next year and $9 million in 2010 with a vesting option for $9 million in 2011, based on games finished. Fuentes will most likely replace K-Rod as the closer for the Angels.
The Cubs have traded Mark DeRosa to the Indians for minor league pitchers Jeff Stevens, Chris Archer and John Gaub. By clearing DeRosa’s salary and perhaps soon Jason Marquis salary, the Cubs are most likely use the money they save from those 2 players to sign a lefthanded bat like Milton Bradley and perhaps this will also be a prelude to getting Jake Peavy from the Padres.

One last HOF not-so-subliminal message:

Henderson
Blyleven
Trammell
Raines

and McGwire

Happy New Years folks

Back 'atcha, chief, and the same to the rest of my fellow mooks. :>)

Ken, I have taken a beating from my friends for straying from my anti-Blyleven position of earlier in the year. I continue to be vehemently opposed to Trammell, Raines and McGwire. Trammell simply doesn't merit it, Raines used illegal drugs and McGwire disgraced himself and the game.

Henderson? Absolutely.

JamesK even though we have been arguing here for the most part,
same to you, and go Rickey and Trammell!! (not to mention Jim Rice)

Indians trade for Mark DeRosa....DeRosa is from North Jersey.
Why couldn't the locals have traded for this guy...?

Agreed Sandy - any argument I get into on this great comment board is good natured, despite what it sounds like. I'm not as big of a statistically dogmatic jerk as I come off as.

Glad to hear you're on board for Trammell!!!

I'm with Jack. They're all good players but Rickey is the only truly deserving, best of the best, HOF. Of course I also believe that the HOF was cheapened long ago and about 75% of the current HOF's shouldn't be there. I stopped caring when guys like Stargell & Billy Williams got in and it's been getting worse.

I'd would like an Alan Trammell supporter to explain to me their reasons for supporting his election to the HOF.

Ken, I hope you are going to be a very frequent guest on the new MLB TV network, which I am watching right now in its debut.

I would think it will need people such as you to round out its team. Has anyone reached out to you yet? Have you reached out to them?

Jack,

Without going into a list of stats, Trammell is a better all around player than Ozzie Smith who is in the HOF. Trammell is overshadowed by Ripken, but Trammell was the 2nd best SS of his era.

OK, I can't resist, here's a few stats -
Ripken career OPS+: 112
Trammell career OPS+: 110

Top 5 OPS+ seasons:
Ripken: 162, 145, 144, 128, 124
Trammell: 155, 138, 138, 137, 135

Trammell was also a solid fielder - 107 FRAA. And 127 WARP3.

My biggest point is that Trammell is a SS - we therefore compare him to other SS's, not the likes of Raines, Rice, etc. who played different positions. Trammell is as good or better than many of the SS's in the HOF.

Just because his name doesn't jump off the page as a HOF doesn't mean his actual on field performance doesn't merit election. He and Lou Whitaker should both be in.

There are 22 shortstops in the HOF (including Robin Yount and Ernie Banks who changed positions). Trammell is better (statistically) than these guys:

- Phil Rizzuto
- Pee Wee Reese
- Luis Aparicio
- Ozzie Smith
- Bobby Wallace
- Joe Tinker
- Rabbit Marrinville
- Travis Jackson
- Dave Bancroft
- John Ward
- Joe Sewell

Granted a lot of these guys were veterans committee elections, but still.

It’s silly to compare Alan Trammell to Cal Ripken. It is embarrassing for Trammell.

For more than a year, many of us have debated about players who are in the HOF that never should have been elected. Most of us believe that just because these people are members, that doesn’t mean the bar should be lowered to justify membership for others who are at their sub-par level.

In Trammell’s case, he played 20 seasons but never reached even 2,400 hits. That might be acceptable for a slugger, but he hit only 185 homeruns and only once drove in at least 100 runs (drove in more than 70 only three times in 20 years!) He walked more than 60 times only twice in two decades of big league ball. He had an OPS+ below 100 in 11 of 20 years.

In 20 seasons he played in only 2,293 games. He missed lots of games in most years. In his last six years, he played in more than 100 games only twice (101 and 112).

He had six very good years. That’s not nearly enough to justify HOF election. He also had some very poor years.

I am interested in knowing what Bob Tufts thinks about Alan Trammell's qualifications for the HOF.

I think if the casual fan had it their way, they'd elect only slugging OF and 1B into the HOF. The casual fan also severely underestimates the value of defense for a player.

Statistically, Trammell is one of the 10 best shortstops in major league history. If someone disagrees and has hard evidence to back it up, I'd like to see it. Again, he's one of the top 10 best OVERALL shortstops in baseball history.

The only new guy I vote in is Henderson.
I have become swayed and would also vote for Blyleven.

The list of shortstops in the HOF is a travesty - but don't allow more people in the HOF just because writers and drinking buddies screwed up.
No on Trammel - and Lou Whitaker for that matter!!

That's it - 2 people - no need to fill out ten spots on the ballot just because spaces exist (and I am sure writers do this).

Why not Tony Fernandez for the HOF?

17 seasons....288 .347 .399 only a 101 OPS but not a slugger.. led league in games, triples and AB's during a season...Trammel only led in sacrifice hits (twice).

Thank you Bob. I, too, have been swayed on Blyleven even though I am being shredded by my friends who think he doesn't belong.

I Hall of Fame sportwriters told me the other day that just because some players who didn't merit HOF election are now members, he won't lower his standards and support equally undeserving players, which is your point exactly.

We have to get past this notion that above average players should be in the HOF. Great players should be in.

Questions to be asked regarding HOF entry..

Should it be the best in their era or best of all-time?
How does post-season inflate/deflate a candidacy?
Why should players be on the ballot more than one year?
Will the moral and ethical standards for induction be enfocred?
Should there be a screening committee that examines eligible players from sabrmetric and other viewpoints before automatically making the ballot due to 10 years of roster time?

Fernandez definitely isn't a HOF'er but he was an underrated player. Excellent all around player - from 1985-1991 he was one of the best SS around.

AND I saw him play, haha - which I can't say about a lot of the players discussed here.

He's not a HOF prospect even though he and Trammel both had 4 gold gloves....

If a majority of fans haven't seen someone play and they are not in the HOF, it's probably time to remove that person's candidacy. If they hadn't made it by now...

I am of the belief that the HOF is for the dominant and outstanding players of all time, not just the dominant players of a decade.

Speaking of HOF'ers, I STRONGLY recommend that everyone watch the MLB Network presentation of Larsen's Perfect game.
(I watched it TWICE tonight).
I believe that Costas mentioned that there were upwards of 18(?) HOF'ers involved in the game (including announcers....Allen, Sully and Wolf)

What a pleasure to watch a hallmark game from that era of baseball.
Home plate umpire (Pinelli) had a strike zone wider than the Grand Canyon.
Batters would stand mere feet from the batter's box as pitchers warmed up.
No batting helmets.
Seeing The Mick and Duke patrolling cavernous center field....SIGH..
Billy Martin playing a very steady and unspectacular 2B.
First and ONLY time in my life I saw Campanella out of a wheelchair (He was always on the Ed Sullivan Show after his car accident).
Very smooth on popups behind the plate.
"Pee Wee" Reese was bigger than Sandy Amoros.
I never thought of Hank Bauer as a leadoff hitter.

That broadcast has so much to offer.
(I was hoping Costas would ask Yogi about some of the conversations he was having with Dodger hitters as they entered the box).

GREAT SHOW.....WATCH IT!!!

Bob Tufts wrote: "I am of the belief that the HOF is for the dominant and outstanding players of all time, not just the dominant players of a decade."

Once again, Bob, you have succinctly summed up my HOF philosophy.

Here's a link to an interesting NYT article about Don Larsen's recent travel problems surrounding his trip to the NY area to tape a show for the MLB Network's debut on Thurs. night. BTW, he's 79 and still smokes.

Sorry to have forgotten to post the Larsen link above. Good article. Here's the link: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/01/sports/baseball/01larsen.html?_r=1

Bob Tufts asked: Why should players be on the ballot more than one year?

My answer: There is no good reason. If Jim Rice gets in this year it will be a travesty. Dont get me wrong, I think he deserves to be in. He would get my vote. But a plyer should get one shot. He's not going to get any more hits, raise his OPS plus, his VORP or any other stat James K. makes up in his sleep. (joking, dont accuse me of living in my Mom's basement again!!)

And James, in your quest for Trammel, you mentioned other SS who got in with the veterans committee. You said you knew they got in with the Veterans Committee. And I'm sure you realize that the Veterans Committee is a joke. So I think you sorta answered your own question. If you think Trammel belongs based on stats, no problem. But if Bill Mazerowski and Phil Rizzutti are in, are you saying any SS better than them should be in? What will Rey Ordonez plaque say??

Lastly, I disagree strongly with your assertion that the average fan just wants sluggers in. I'm quite certain many of us believe Pete Rose should be in the Hall. I think what us casual fans really want, is for the HOF to RAISE the bar not lower the bar. We dont want a sportswriter to say yay or nay based in large part on a smile or a frown. I dont think its fair for you to say Trammel was better than Ozzie Smith. Its impossible for a stat to tell the story on Ozzie. I know they have defensive stats, but sorry, it just cant tell the story of the greatest defensive SS we will ever see.

Yesterday’s Bridgestone NHL Winter Classic was awesome. The game between the Red Wings and Blackhawks at Wrigley Field was good. I don’t know where they will play it next year, but the new Yankee Stadium or Fenway Park will certainly be candidates to stage it.
The Rose Bowl is starting to become the USC Invitational. The last 3 years USC has put a beatdown on the Big 10 beating Michigan, Illinois and yesterday Penn State. USC was up 31-7 at the half and in effect the game was over even thought Penn State score 17 points in the 4th quarter to make the final score respectable at 38-24.
There are rumors of Manny Ramirez being pursue by the Giants. Considering the moves the Giants have made this off-season and the pitching they have, adding Manny would put the Giants over the top in the weak NL West.
If Ozzie Smith can get into the HOF mainly for his defense at Shortstop, Omar Vizquel might get in as well. Vizquel was as good a defensive shortstop as Smith with Smith winning 13 Gold Gloves to Vizquel’s 11. And offensively Vizquel stats are just as good if not better than Smith.
The HOF recently elected players that are compilers who compile stats that reach the necessary milestones to be consider getting into the HOF. Guys like Phil Niekro and Don Sutton got in because they reach the 300 wins milestone and neither is consider a Hall of Famer by most people. Milestone stats like 300 wins, 500 home runs, 3,000 hits etc. have become almost automatic entry’s into the HOF.

RG I think it's pretty close between Ozzie and Trammell, all around. Ozzie was a zero offense player for half his career. And the other half wasn't so pretty either - 87 career OPS+.

One last gripe I have with the HOF - look at how many players are in by position, voted in by the BBWAA and NOT veterans committe:

Catcher - 9
First Base - 15
Second Base - 9
Shortstop - 7
Third Baseman - 7
OF - 25 (3 positions)

I just feel SS and 3B are underrepresented in the Hall, because voters do not do a good enough job of comparing players to others at their position. We cannot compare Ozzie Smith or Alan Trammell to Stan Musial or Willie Stargell - they play different positions. I'll take Trammell over all-hit/no-field Jim Rice anyday.

So to use Trammell's 185 HR against him doesn't make sense - thats more HR than any SS in the HOF except Ernie Banks, Robin Yount (who both changed positions) and Cal Ripken! His HR total helps his candidacy - it doesn't hurt it.

Dennis, I think 500 home runs wont be an automatic anymore. And I'm not certain 3,000 hits will awlays be an automatic either. Kenny Lofton was getting dangerously close to 3,000. I wonder if he didn't retire if he would have gotten there.

Also, Vizquel is not on Ozzie's level. No SS ever was. Though Ordonez for a few years was unreal too with the glove.

And if the Giants sign Manny, they may turn themselves into contenders. But I wouldn't bet the house on it. For some reason, I see a clubhouse of Zito/Johnson/Manny/ton of kids as being a pretty big work in progress. Would be interesting though.

I think SS should be considered more as a defensive position for the HOF.
When you think about it, until recently there were very few offensive players
at that position.
I will say this again because it bears repeating, Bill Mazeroski, when he
played baseball, was considered the greatest fielding 2nd baseman
in baseball history. I don't know this for sure, but I believe he created
the double play pivot. He is more famous for that HR, but he was an incredible
fielding 3rd baseman (the Brooks Robinson of 2nd base).
Watching the MLB broadcast last night he was stunning to remember that announcers
didn't feel they had to say much and let the screen tell the story and
in Scully's case where back then he didn't have much to say as compared to
him talking non-stop throughout nine innings, it's quite different. I know he treats it like he's conversing with his
audience now and tells a lot of anecdotes, but still he was quite different
back then. Less is more sometimes. All the excess garbage on the
TV screen today detracts from the game I'm supposed to be watching, as well. And the Fox
sound effects are useless garbage which I would imagine raises
the production costs somewhat. Maybe in these harder times, we will
see less production and more game to save some money.

Richie: Craig Biggio and 3,000 hits and McGwire with all his HR's
are perfect examples of not being automatics anymore. I never
considered Biggio to be a "great" player and was stunned when I
found out he was approaching 3,000 hits. Bagwell yes, Biggio no. Palmeiro won't be getting in
either.

Bill Mazeroski retired in 1972. It took him 29 years to get into the HOF. Obviously, he probably doesn't belong there because if he did, it wouldn't have taken three decades to get there. A nice player. One of the best ever? No.

It's hard to compare the power numbers of players that competed in completely different eras. Trammell was a good player - often very good. Did he have enough great years to merit HOF membership? I don't think so.

As another Trammell supporter (and one old enough to have watched him play) I agree with James K. There is too much emphasis on his lack of offensive numbers compared to corner OF'ers or 1B, without mentioning how superior offensively he was to other SS's, not to mention his excellent defense. And while I don't have the numbers in front of me I'd be willing to bet the Ozzie Smith's offense was so bad, that despite his otherworldly defense his VORP and WARP numbers are no better than Trammells. I bet James K can get the numbers quicker than I.

Jack since most voters vote on offensive stats, and Mazeroski didn't
have good offensive stats, he wouldn't be voted in during the regular
voting period. However, he isn't in there for his HR or his offensive
stats, he's in for his superior defensive abilities, just as Ozzie Smith and, I
believe Brooks Robinson, are in for.
Under the present voting circumstances, and a bias towards good, not
even great, offensive stats, Trammell probably won't go in, although
when he played he was considered to be a "superstar" player. I consider
him and Whitaker to be one of the best DP combos of all-time and the
centerpieces of that 1984 team. He may go in under the veteran's committee
someday, but I doubt the writers put him in.

Sandy, I understand your point. My point is that if a player is "great" it shouldn't take 29 years to recognize it and thus secure a spot in the HOF. I believe "great" players should be in the HOF. Very good players should not be in the HOF because there are many, many very good players. The HOF is for the best players. If I recall correctly, there were indeed people that were horrified when Bill M. was elected, three decades after he retired.

Obviously, there is something very wrong with the voting process. I am willing to admit that my standards might be much too high. Maybe players like Trammell, Mazeroski, et al, should be in. Maybe I am unrealistic.

I bet if Alan Trammell's name was "Buzzie" or "Scooter" or "Pee Wee" and he did backflips on the field he'd have a lot more supporters...

I am a die-hard Yankee fan but I have to say, Scooter shouldn't have been elected to the HOF. More of a case can be made for Reese.

Is Jorge Posada a future Hall of Famer?

Vizquel will be a interesting case for the HOF. He and Ozzie Smith are similar players. They both are great defensive shortstops. The difference is Vizquel is a better offensive player than Smith.
Here are Vizquel’s offensive stats compare to Smith’s offensive stats for their career.

Vizquel: .273 77 HRs 892 RBIs 2,657 Hits 1,361 Runs score .338 OBP .355 SLG
Smith: .262 28 HRs 793 RBIs 2,460 Hits 1,257 Runs score .337 OBP .328 SLG

Vizquel beats Smith in just about every offensive stat. I don’t know if Vizquel will get into the HOF because he got lost in the 90’s and early 2000’s with A-Rod, Jeter, Nomar etc. getting all the attention with their offense. But if Smith is in the HOF because of his defense then Vizquel should be elected in also.

I really like Omar, and his having played more games at shortstop than anyone else should count for something. But the problem with measuring offensive stats out of context is that it was easier to hit in the 90's ("all the attention with their offense"). By OPS+, Smith is at 87 and Omar at 83. Close, but Smith leads, and stole more at an 80% success rate (vs. Omar's 71%). Ozzie is credited with 325 win shares (a good standard for shortstop Hall presumption). Trammell is at 318 (close enough), Omar at 263.

I think Ken has been writernapped in the Motor City and we will have to use some of the bailout money to bail him out.

Welcome David from Toledo! - win shares add to the discussion and further Trammell's case.

Vizquel is not a HOF. It'll be pretty sad if he gets in and Trammell doesn't.

The Veterans committee should only be based on old Ngro League players. And once all those players who deserved to get in are in, they should abolish it. 15 years is WAY MORE THAN enough time!!

If Pavano would have signed for two years and I was getting my blog, I would have said the HOF needs to make it more clearer for the writers. Maybe say every eligible player is on the ballot for three years. The first year you can only vote for the best of the best. The 2nd year you vote for the greats. And the third year you vote for the just deserving. Then your'e out.

Jeff Moorad has resigned his post as CEO of the Arizona Diamondbacks and is leading a group to try and buy the San Diego Padres from John Moores. Moorad does have a share of the D’Backs franchise, so he has to sell it if his group does get the Padres. D’Backs president Derrick Hall takes over as the CEO as well as keeping his position as team president.
The MLB players union has approve the Dodgers reworking Andruw Jones contract that would save the Dodgers $12 million next year with the Dodgers expecting to trade or released Jones. Its interesting that the Players Union didn’t allow A-Rod to rework his contract so that he can be traded to Red Sox during the ’03 off-season, yet they allow the Dodgers to rework Andruw Jones contract just so they can save money and might let Jones go.

Jones is already under contract with the Dodgers and A-Rod wasn't with Boston. That's one difference. But, I will let Bob Tufts explain why the two situations cannot be compared, if he feels the need to do so.