Moving forward from the arbitration decisions: CC Sabathia, Bobby Abreu, Ivan Rodriguez, Kerry Wood, Jason Varitek and Adam Dunn
Here is the story I wrote about the Yankees' decision to offer arbitration to no one. And here is David Lennon's story on the Mets.
First of all, it sounds like CC Sabathia is moving closer, finally, to a decision. In the next few days, the Angels should reveal how serious they are about putting the big lefty in his home state, and Sabathia will have to act upon that. There's no indication of any other serious bidders, aside from the Brewers. The money here still goes on Sabathia taking the Yankees' money.
Getting back to the arbitration stuff, most notable about the Yankees, to me, is that 2009 will likely be the first year since Brian Cashman became a "real GM" in November 2005 that the team will not prioritize minor-league development in some significant way. Looking back:
2006: Gave up own first-round pick by signing Johnny Damon, but picked up the Phillies' first-round selection and a sandwich-round selection for losing Tom Gordon to Philadelphia. Those picks became Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain.
(And believe it or not, despite his terrible 2008, Kennedy will not be retiring.)
2007: Tried to re-stock minor-league system by trading Randy Johnson, Gary Sheffield and Jaret Wright. The Sheffield trade has produced zippo so far. The Johnson deal brought over Ross Ohlendorf, who helped bring over Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady. And Chris Britton knows the route from New York to Scranton by heart, if nothing else.
2008: Gained a sandwich pick, gladly, for losing Jose Vizcaino to Colorado.
Next year? They'll have the first-round pick and second-round pick they carry over from '08, for not signing Gerrit Cole and Scott Bittle. And that'll probably be it. If they sign two big-name free agents from the group of Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Derek Lowe, Oliver Perez, Mark Teixeira and Manny Ramirez - and that's a pretty safe bet - then they'll hand over their actual first- and second-round pick for '09. And no compensatory picks.
Can't blame those of you upset that the Yankees didn't offer Abreu arbitration; you'd think that Abreu will get a multi-year deal elsewhere. At the same time, I don't feel inclined to crush the Yankees for saying, essentially, "We don't want to risk having to spend $18 million on Bobby Abreu."
Regarding Abreu, the Mets have some interest, but they like Raul Ibanez more. That's the right call, IMHO. I don't know Ibanez very well, but he carries the reputation of a positive clubhouse force. I know Abreu pretty well after watching him up close the last 2 1/3 seasons. While he's an on-base machine, and certainly not a negative clubhouse presence, he's more content to lay in the weeds. The Mets have enough people like that already.
Remember, when the Yankees traded Kyle Farnsworth for Pudge on July 30, they were very much in the playoff race - a game behind Boston for the AL wild card.
But Pudge delivered a woeful OPS+ of 51 in his two months as a Yankee. Mike Mussina never wanted any part of him, and Andy Pettitte gave up on him after a single start. Meanwhile, in a 13-15 August that pretty much tanked their chances (they were seven games behind the Sawx on Aug. 31), they never replaced Farnsworth, losing a few big games in the late innings. And to those of you who point to Farnsworth's awful numbers with Detroit, I offer to you my Farnsworth-Good Will Hunting theory.
Anyhow, with their proper decision to not offer arbitration to the Type B free agent Pudge, the Yankees officially get absolutely nothing for that deal.
With the arbitration hammer, Varitek can probably convert the potential, one-year, $9-million deal into, say, a two-year, $10-million deal with the Sawx, who can go out and acquire themselves a young catcher (Jarrod Saltalamacchia?) to serve a two-year apprenticeship under 'Tek. Varitek's agent Scott Boras often recommends to his clients that they accept arbitration.
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Comments (16)
Because the Yanks didn't signed their 1st and 2nd round picks in this year's draft, they were given a 1st and 2nd round pick for next year's draft for not signing them. And because of that, the Yanks basically felt they were willing to not offer arbitration to Abreu knowing that they have those picks because they didn't sign their draft picks and are going to have to surrender their own picks if they sign someone like Sabathia.
Mike Hampton sign a one-year $2 million contract with incentives with the Astros. Pavano might have to sign something similar to what Hampton signed with the Astros.
Ken, I am a real person who is currently at work, just so you know.
I hated the Pudge/Farnsworth deal as well, but since they were only planning on using Pudge as a replacement for Posada, it's hard to say they really lost all that much (plus Farnsworth was no great shakes for Detroit, either). He just didn't hit is all (not that some of us didn't see that coming...).
Ken, I'm glad you brought up Kennedy. Is it me or have the Yanks seemingly given up on him and Hughes completely? Or is it that, having tried rushing them to the majors, they want to unburden them by not talking about them as rotation possibilities? I'm wondering what they really think of them.
Byrnes' electing not to offer arbitration to Dunn, coupled with the Abreu and Burrell decisions, suggests that the Mets will be able to pick up a quality left-fielder at a very reasonable cost/term. It also begs the question as to whether Manny may indeed be available for only three years. (Are you reading, Ned Colletti?)
Regarding your Varitek question, Ken, remember: there remain several teams whose brain trusts will want to bring in a "veteran" who has "grit" and "knows how to win" and "has those intangibles that don't show up in a box score." Hmmm, the Dodgers immediately come to mind, particularly if they want to give Russell Martin even more playing time at third base....
If I were you Ken, I'd be expecting a call from Varitek's agent/publicist to complain about publishing that picture.
The "C" on his jersey is clearly intangible.
The thing with Farnsworth was the Yankees were better off getting rid of him because of his instability and lack of respect from fans. And they needed a catcher at the time Pudge was obviously the wrong catcher, but Farnsworth wasn't marketable at all due to his lack of effectiveness.
I know know how much of a good clubhouse influence Varitek would be on a new team, unless it was filled with ex-Red Sox. he can't play anymore and his only asset is leadership ability that he clearly has with Boston, but other teams maybe not so much. Plus he is overpriced for what he is able to contribute.
The Mets would be smart to sign Abreu, I don't think he's nearly as close to being done as many of you think, I just think he is unmotivated a bit. And a change in scenary, like when the Phillies traded him to the Yankees would motivate him to play harder at least for one full year, and if he can give his average year for the duration of the contract, he would be worth the risk. He is not that far away from being an all-star player yet.
This has nothing to do with baseball, but if you want the most hilarious take on the Giants' current melodrama, check this out:
http://www.tiricosuave.com/2008/12/01/a-burress-story/
With Dunn, Burrell, and Abreu not being offered arbitration, I think it's hard to justify signing Raul Ibanez (who was offered arbitration and would cause the Mets to lose a draft pick if signed). All 4 are defensively challenged OF.
Personally, I'd be OK with a Tatis/Murphy platoon in '09, in anticipation of Jason Bay and Matt Holliday becoming free agents next offseason. Spend the $$ on pitching this offseason.
As much as I couldn't stand Farnsworth, it's necessary to tell Ken, "you were right" on this trade. Pudge was terrible and the Yankees went down the tubes after the trade was made. It is true that Girardi/Eiland were finally getting something out of Farnsworth where others had failed.
James K: Good point on the Mets and Ibanez. It does make sense to take a fresh look at Dunn and now Abreu. The platoon scares me for several reasons, one being some hestitation with Murphy.
I generally agree with you, Jack. While I am cautiously optimistic about Murphy's future (I am less enamored with Tatis), I don't think that the Mets can take chances with both corner outfield positions. With Abreu, Burrell, and Dunn available at no draft-pick cost, the Amazins can expect a reasonable contract/term from one of the three. There is no need to wait a year in the hope that Holladay and Bay will be available.
I'm with you on the "waiting a year" philosophy, JE. Who knows if the Mets will even be able to land one of the possible free agents. As George Allen was fond of saying: "The future is now." Dunn and Abreu should both be very affordable and leave more than enough money for the Mets to address their pitching needs.
The thought of Adam Dunn batting 5th or 6th in the Mets lineup is wonderful. I'd be all for his signing, assuming they can straighten out the bullpen/rotation first. 40 homers, a .380 OBP - you can set your watch to it.
I'd be OK with Burrell or Abreu too - just not Ibanez please.
Tim, I think the Yankees still like Hughes a great deal. Kennedy, they'd give away in the right trade.
It'll be interesting to see if/how the Mets adjust their outfield priorities based on arbitration offers.
If the Mets don't adjust their decision making based on the arb offers, then Omar needs to go. Ibanez is a solid hitter, but his defense is so awful making Dunn a much better option. Though Dunn clearly lacks grit, hustle, and clubhouse chemist intangibility.
The Mets have enough $ to land a 2/3 starter, closer and upgrade either 2B or LF. I think these arb offers have put LF ahead of 2B at the moment. Grab your infielder's glove Murph, you're in.
Ken-Are the Mets still in on Street? I hope Feliciano still isn't a sticking point.
Yes, the Mets are still in on Street, whynot. As far as I know, things haven't changed re: Feliciano.
I think the Nationals are going to blow everyone away to get Dunn.