Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

I cant believe Tommy John is still on this list.
I know this will be an unpopular statement, but I think writers should have their ballots scrutinized each year and forced to explain some of their selections/omissions.

If Jay Bell receives a vote, that writer should explain themselves. And if a writer doesn't vote in someone like Tom Seaver, they should have to explain why. I guess if you vote for a 10% or dont vote for a 90% could be the criteria.

Ken where is Keithe Hernadez and Alber Bellet??

I believe if we consider the accomplishments of Tommy John (288), Bert Blyleven (287) and Jim Kaat (283), all of whom won over 280 games in MLB, they are clearly worthy candidates for the Hall of Fame. While all of them would be considered "compilers" in todays world of statistics, their career accomplishments and durability make them look more worthy when compared to pitchers in today's era.

Alan Trammel and Ricky Henderson both had 3000 career hits which is usually a threshold for HOF induction. Among the rest, Jack Morris is worthy. A case can be made for Jim Rice. And why not Don Mattingly, just for being Donnie Baseball.

PS: I suspect Jim Kaat is not on the ballot as you did not list him. But he is as worthy as any pitcher who didn't surpass the 300 win barrier outside of Sandy Koufax.

Richie, Belle got only 3.5% of the vote in the 2007 ballot (two years ago). You have to get at least 5% to stay on the ballot from one year to the next. Hernandez missed the 5% mark a few years back (not sure exactly when, sorry).

And I would welcome increased BBWAA scrutiny on voters, although I'd probably lower the low end of the threshold from 10% to say, 5%.

Just a correction on SEF's post: Alan Trammell has 2,365 career hits.

Blyleven and Henderson....and please don't say anything about mark grace having the most hits in the nineties

My ballot:

- Berty Blyleven
- Alan Trammell
- Rickey Henderson
- Tim "Rock" Raines

And a half a vote for Mark McGwire. Need more time to think about it. Without the steroid stuff, he's a no-brainer 1st balloter.

I'm hoping that this blog was fixed when it was down.

Jim Rice
Rickey
Andre Dawson

I'm with you, Bob. Blyleven and Henderson. Ken, you converted on BB after all the exchanges last winter. He deserves to be enshrined.

Rickey Henderson is the only guaranteed on the ballot who will get into the HOF this year. Everybody else is fair game. You can make a case for and against everybody on the ballot.920

As far as we know, McGwire was on a team where illegal PED use was rampant. I can't ascertain how much of his career was "clean". Bary Bonds (if you believe "Game of Shadows" interpretation of his supposed usage) was already HOF worthy before illegal PED's may have been used.

I'm not convinced on Andre Dawson - he seems most similar to Dwight Evans in ability and stats. Two good and likeable guys who are in the HO Very Good. And I do not forgive Raines (or Molitor) for the cocaine usage...yes, they played a long time after and "rehabiliated " their image, but....if you're sliding on one side of your body and possibly affecting the outcome of the game in order to not destroy your contraband, you're out in my book!

Bob, I have to agree with you again on the drug use "thing" and say it would make me very hesitant to support certain individuals for the HOF. Taking drugs is a choice. For the same reason gambling earns someone a lifetime ban, so should drugs. They are illegal and by using them a player could easily be compromised. I like Tim Raines, but don't want him in the HOF.

Dawson in the HOF? He's close, but he, too, doesn't belong.

No love for Jesse Orosco?

(... yes, I am...)

Raines is an interesting case. Again, given the reps of some of the guys in the Hall, it's hard to draw the line on cocaine use. I'd lean his way. I'd also have to include Rice at this point, along with Henderson. But the presence of a no-brainer like Rickey usually hurts the cases of the borderline guys, so it wouldn't surprise me if he was the only one elected (sorry, Jesse).

Raines > Rice > Dawson

Bob Amen. And thats why I wont vote Manny in. Manny intentionally threw some games this year in Boston and deserves to be kicked out of baseball for it. Instead he'll make even more money than he would have had he hit a Grand Slam.

Ken, I knew that rule and was wondering about Belle, but I thought Hernandez had way more than enough votes. Its so weird how people vote on these things.

Those Expos are all very gooders. Raines/Carter/Dawson. Not sure who deserves it and who doesn't. I'd have to look at it. Carter's only defense is he was a catcher.

As for Rickey Henderson, I know he's deserving, but I'd love to see him wait a year. For all the Jose Reyes haters out there, there's an interesting stat. I dont even think James K., or Ken can dispute this. For all his dancing, Reyes pretty much (though not Stearns like) hustles his butt off. Check the triples. Reyes has 71 career 3B's and Rickey has 66. For a guy with Rickey's speed, he only has 66 career 3B's. It means he rarely hustled out of the box. Its actually quite a telling/pathetic #. So when he says he loved playing baseball, that's the first question I'd ask him.

And keep in mind, how much bigger were the ballparks back then? And the arms were probably weaker on many of the OF's.

pon further review aka not so fast my friend, I'm erasing Dawson from my ballot. If Raines ever gets in, he shouldn't go in until after Rickey gets in and they shouldn't go in together.

Richie Rickey's biggest minus was his attitude and it may keep him out this year. But he's getting in soon enough.

No doubt, Richie, Rickey's HDQORP (Hot Doq Quotient Over Replacement Player) is through the roof. But he was still a pretty amazing player nonetheless.

Regarding Manny: Which games did he intentionally throw? The accusations were that he sat out certain games, and there was one instance in which he didn't bust it down the line on a grounder. Is there something else?

I recall Manny striking out on purpose once against the Yankees. Didn't he take three pitches down the middle or is it my imagination? He made it obvious as to what he was doing.

I remember being at one of Rickey's last games as a Met. He hit a bomb that everyone (including Rickey) assumed was gone, but it hit the top of the wall in LF at Shea. Rickey was no more than halfway down the line, admiring his single, when the ball hit the wall. He was gone a couple days later, if my memory serves me right.

RG,

I like your 10%/90% thing (or 5%/95%) - I remember reading a couple years ago that a guy voted against Ripken or Gwynn simply because he didn't think any player deserved to get 100% of the vote. How silly is that?

Good call, Jack. Yes, on Sunday, July 6 of this year, at Yankee Stadium, Manny looked at three straight pitches from Rivera. It was very suspicious.

Interesting deal between the Astros and Hampton. Pettitte's options might dwindle.

Can't say I'm surprised that the Yankees declined arbitration for Bobby A and Andy P.

Blyleven, Dawson, Henderson, Rice.

Just my opinion.

Just knowing that Rickey's Acceptance Speech would immediately (no 5 year wait) be accepted into the Ebonics Hall of Fame would get my vote.
That will be an event worth witnessing.

Far be it from me to be unfaithful to my regular blog, but I must say this about Be Home Blyleven...

Ken D, I understand the thinking that the guy is like 4th all-time in Ks and had 287 wins and an impressive 60 shutouts. But someone has to hold the title of most wins not in the Hall, and it might as well be this guy....

He also played 22 ML seasons, which means he averaged 175 Ks, 13 wins and 2.7 shutouts a year.

Never once led his league in ERA, only once led his league in strikeouts (206 in 1985), never once led the league in wins, never once finished first or second in a Cy Young race, won 20 games just once (and actually finished 7th in the AL that year in 1973), and LOST 15 games or more 7 times, including leading the league once (at least he led the league in something).

Sorry, but that's a big, fat NOOOOOOO.

I am definitely of the non-stat-geek variety when it comes to this stuff. Meaning yes on shorter-term dominance (Rice, etc) than the compiling crew. Thus, I also would vote no on Biggio and Moose and Hoffman, and don't believe Sutton, Billy Williams, Niekro and a few others that are in already should be there.

GO RIEBER !! (That's what they call a trademark for those of you who aren't familiar with my work).

I don't understand what the Yankees are going with Abreu. Not offering him arbitration doesn't make any sense. What was the chance he would have accepted? About 5 percent? There's little doubt he's going to get a three-year deal out there somewhere. Now the Yankees won't get anything for it. This is hugely damaging from a draft standpoint, because while the Yanks still have those two extra draft picks from last year, they are guaranteed to be giving '09's first rounder away.

I just really don't see how this makes any sense whatsoever. Would it have been so bad if Abreu did accept and they had him for 16 mil at one year? At worst, couldn't they have moved him?

Blimey, that was me in the post above. Forgive me, I'm out of my element on this WHIP/VORP driven blog instead of getting to look at Norm and Rieber's skin pix.

GO RIEBER !!

Rieber Groupie, in this blog you are clearly the RG2!!! But seriously, you do not let your initials down because I agree with literally almost 100% of what you say. Hell even the GO RIEBER!! part!! (Though I have to have my boy Davdoff's back when the day comes...and it will...that they come to blows).

Ken, I was referring to the time Manny did his best Jay Johnstone and looked at three straight pitches. Imagine if an NFL QB intentionally threw an interception and imagine if a NBA player purposely gave the other team the ball?? That instance alone with no repurcussions shows how weak and pathetic Selig is.

And like I said, Rickey Henderson was an amazing ballplayer and maybe the best leadoff man of all time. But I'd rather shake Joe McEwing's hand than his.

And when you calculate HDQORP (Hot Doq Quotient Over Replacement Player) are you comparing it to the average Major Leaguer or just those that were going to cross the picket line in 95?? ;)

Thanks for having my back, Richie, and... also for forecasting a future brawl between me and Rieber. LOL.

I don't remember that about Rickey in '95, but that sounds like Rickey.

As for Manny, as you know, I usually play the role of pragmatist here. While I am not at all challenging your outrage at what Manny did, keep in mind that due process would've been carried off if Selig (or, even more sensibly, the Red Sox) suspended him. Unless Manny told Ortiz or someone else, "I just tanked that at-bat," and Ortiz or whoever testifed as much, it would be quite difficult to prove guilt.

Ken I know they would have lost. But being that I work in PR, I know that just having to fight that battle would be a mess for Manny and the Union. And sometimes I think Selig and the owners dont realize that.

As for 95, internet humor. You said replacement players and I immediately think of the replacement players the owners hired in 95. Rickey was never one of them or threatened to be...as far as I remember anyways.

I wonder if any of those replacement players are still left? I know Cory Lidle was one as was Rick Reed.

The problem with holding Blyleven's W-L record against him (and it's still not awful btw) is that he is unfairly hurt by the fact taht he played on bad teams.

This might be too much to handle, but if you use Baseball Reference's "stat neutralizer" (which assumes every team scores 715 runs over 162 games), Blyleven's record becomes 325-227. This function effectively removes the quality of the team playing behind a pitcher (hitting, bullpen) and evaluates players on level ground.

By using the same function for Jack Morris (who pitched for some truly great teams), Morris's record goes from 254-186 to 229-204. An argument against this is that "Morris pitched to the score" or whatever, but I'm not a believer in that.

RG, good question - are there any replacement players left?

Ahh. LOL on "replacement players." I feel like there are one or two left, but the names aren't coming to me.

Hello Ken -

Haven't posted here in who knows how long - but I've been reading every word of your stellar stuff...

sorry for being impolite, but geez, but the HOF deabte always gets me riled up!!!!!

a) If you don't think that Rickey is a slam-dunk, whiz-bang, first-ballot, lock for the Hall you shouldn't be reading Ken's blog.

b) It's a joke that anyone - especially those with a vote - thinks there are valid arguments against Blyleven.

c) Andre Dawson? really?

d) Didn't the Jim Rice ship sail away via countless postings on countless blogs last year at this time?

e) And lastly, I am embarassed for the BBWWAA that Wallace Mathews has a Hall vote.

Raines
Henderson
Trammell
Blyleven
McGwire

I'd almost vote for Dale Murphy as well. That guy was a special player during his prime.

I'm with 505, Rickey's speech should be special. He was a laugh riot sparring with fans out in LF during the 99 LCS in Atlanta.

I see Mahay, Herges, Donnelly and of course Agbayani:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_replacement_players

Thank you, whynot. Mahay was the guy I was thinking of. Benny is still playing for Bobby in Japan.

JoeNunz! I figured you had departed for greener blogs! I can't endorse all of your opinions, unfortunately, but I am thrilled to see you're still hanging around.

Oh, and Rieber Groupie, I am honored, too, that you're here. All I need is Brooks Simpson and Tyler Kepner, and then I think I'll have a Final Score clean sweep.

James K, there is only thing that I would add to your pro-Blyleven, anti-Morris synopsis: for all of Morris' supposed "grittiness" in the 1991 Series, Blyleven still had the better post-season numbers!