Instant trade analysis Archives

August 25, 2008

Instant trade analysis: Eddie Guardado to the Twins

5051.jpgNice move for the Twins, who have been looking to upgrade their bullpen. "Everyday Eddie" made his name in Minnesota, and you'd think he'd be fired up to return to the Twins and help them reach the finish line.

I don't know anything about Mark Hamburger, the young pitcher the Rangers received in return. But if Hamburger makes it big, and someone wants to make a movie about him, this title is already taken.

What amazes me most about the Twins' run is that they're doing so despite getting close to nothing from the quartet of players they received from the Mets for Johan Santana. Carlos Gomez enters tonight with a brutal .256/.291/.348 line, and Phil Humber and Kevin Mulvey have combined for zero appearances. The youngster Deolis Guerra has a 5.44 ERA for Class A Fort Myers.

  • Meanwhile, I'd bet on Jon Niese getting the start for the Mets Tuesday, Sept. 2 in Milwaukee, the next time they need a fifth starter. With John Maine down _ I'm at the Mets game and columnizing about this for tomorrow's Newsday _ there is some internal debate over whether to go with Niese, Brian Stokes or Robert Parnell. But Stokes has functioned well out of the bullpen as a long man, and Parnell is projected by some as a reliever. The Mets put Niese on a pitch count in his Sunday start for Triple A New Orleans _ he threw 103 pitches over five innings _ and are working on a schedule that would prepare him to make the Sept. 2 start.

  • Here is some fodder for the Hall of Fame debate enthusiasts. Jim Clark, your help might be needed on this one.

  • Thanks to this site for the photo.

  • August 19, 2008

    (Not even remotely) instant trade analysis: Greg Maddux to the Dodgers

    maddux.jpgThis must be energizing to the Dodgers. Brad Penny goes down with an injury, and poof! Here comes a 353-game winner to replace him.

    I've been in enough clubhouses to know that surge of adrenaline when players feel that management has their backs. It's another boost for Joe Torre's club, in what's looking like a very exciting race for the NL West crown: Torre, Manny, Maddux and Nomah against Arizona's big three of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and Randy Johnson.

    Maddux, 42, is obviously near the end of his illustrious career, but he's not totally done yet. In the latest example that won-loss records hold minimal value, Maddux has a respectable 1.220 WHIP and 98 ERA+ (meaning he's been a tick below average) to go with that 6-9 record. The Cubs' Jason Marquis, for instance, is 8-7 with a 1.442 WHIP and 96 ERA+.

  • Man oh man, do you guys love you some Hall of Fame debates. I agree with Bob. When I get back next week, we'll try to come up with the least deserving players who are in there.

  • Otherwise...I'm relaxing out here, hanging out with family and friends. The little guy jumped into the deep end of a pool for the first time yesterday. The traffic out here is absurd, but the beach is beautiful.

    Hope you're all doing well. And let's keep it above-the-belt in the daily debates.

  • Thanks to this site for the photo.

  • August 12, 2008

    Instant trade analysis: Paul Byrd to the Red Sox

    byrd.jpgByrd reportedly cleared waivers, which allowed this to happen. Byrd has turned around his season in the last month, so why did the Yankees, after spending so much money to bring aboard Damaso Marte, Xavier Nady and Pudge Rodriguez, pass here? It almost feels like a sign of surrender.

    Good, low-risk move (only money, or a marginal prospect) by the Red Sox. A money-saving move by the Indians, who almost certainly wouldn't have offered Byrd arbitration.

    Meanwhile the Tigers signed Freddy Garcia. A longshot move by a longshot playoff contender. From speaking to people in the loop, it sounded like Garcia just didn't show much in his throwing session last week. But I'd definitely take a flyer on him for next year.

    Thanks to this site for the photo.

    August 11, 2008

    Instant (not really) trade analysis: Adam Dunn to the Diamondbacks

    dunn.jpg

    JE, you got your wish! That the Diamondbacks claimed Dunn and got him in a trade, for what looks like very little, means that someone out there appreciates the trade-off of homers and walks for strikeouts. We'll never know if the Mets would've claimed him, since the Diamondbacks have a worse record and therefore had priority over the Mets.

    Although, unless Dunn can pitch out of the bullpen, the Mets have greater problems right now. Yeesh.

    The Diamondbacks clearly had a need for a bat, and Dunn fills that need. Arizona would be in second place in the NL West right now if not for Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers' fill-in closer, who blew ninth-inning leads over the Giants Saturday and Sunday.

    So let's see how Dunn does in his first bona fide pennant race, if he makes the J.P. Ricciardis of the world look smart or proves them wrong. And we'll see, this winter, what kind of deal Dunn gets on the open market.

    As for the Reds, they save money, and that's probably as good as it'll get for them.


    July 31, 2008

    Instant trade analysis: Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers, Jason Bay to the Red Sox

    37982741.jpgtx.bay.jpgClearly, the Red Sox were absolutely determined to rid themselves of Manny. Impressive that they pulled this off.

    They fared pretty well without David Otiz for an extended period this year, so you'd figure they'd be OK with Jason Bay replacing Manny in the lineup.

    They gave up a lot, but man, this conflict grew ugly quickly.

    Meanwhile, huge trade for the Dodgers, who desperately needed a bat. Jim, you get your wish: Joe Torre will get to manage Manny. I envision it going quite well, with a motivated Manny enjoying the more relaxed pace of the West Coast.

    And the Pirates stock their cabinet with the four players. Pittsburgh GM Neal Huntington wound up lowering his price considerably on all three of his big chips _ Bay, Damaso Marte and Xavier Nady. But better to do that than hold onto them too long.

    So really, very good trade for all three clubs.

    Meanwhile, the Yankees made a small deal, giving up Alberto Gonzalez to Washington for Jhonny Nunez.

    As for my previous blog post...oy vey. Why did I even bother? Busey, the first commenter, is right. I suck.

    (But I'm gonna be right on Farnsworth-for-Pudge).

  • Thanks to this site for the photo.


  • Instant Trade Analysis: Ken Griffey Jr. to the White Sox

    juniorg.jpgThere's got to be more to this.

    The White Sox's Kenny Williams is one of the most bold, creative GMs out there. Is he going to deal Jim Thome somewhere? Is some team actually going to take Paul Konerko off his hands, and then they'll move Thome to first base? They can't possibly play Junior in centerfield.

    The two pitchers the Reds reportedly received for Griffey are no great shakes, although you wouldn't expect them to be.

    I'll give the edge to the White Sox, just for the shock value, and the anticipation that another move is coming. Meanwhile, I remember attending a Reds news conference in Sarasota in 2000, in which their general manager at the time, Jim Bowden, sat next to Junior and proclaimed, "Baseball is BACK in Cincinnati!" That never happened.

    July 30, 2008

    Instant trade analysis: The Yankees get Pudge Rodriguez for Kyle Farnsworth

    38358186.jpg37985753.jpgWow, do I not like this trade.

    I'm not even sure where to begin, so I'll just enumerate my points, as they come to my head:

    1. I understood and supported the idea of shifting Joba Chamberlain from setup man to starting pitcher. Because, obviously, Chamberlain was still going to be on the team, in a more important role.

    But to replace Chamberlain, they had managed to take Farnsworth _ who had been a complete waste of space for two years _ and turn him into a dominant setup man. Dominant, with that upper-90s fastball and slider. The credit went to Joe Girardi and Dave Eiland. The blame went to Joe Torre and Ron Guidry for what transpired the prior two seasons.

    So now they're going to have to rebuild that eighth-inning bridge again, and as good as Girardi and Eiland have proven themselves to be in this area, they'll have no one with the sort of tools that Farnsworth possessed.

    2. Pudge. Maybe he can keep up his recent hot streak (42-for-110 with three doubles and four homers, according to the Yankees' press release on this trade). But the prior three years _ including last year, which was a virtual walk year, since the Tigers had a team option on him _ he has been a below-average offensive player. Look at his walk totals since 2005. Brutal.

    Now, is he an offensive upgrade over Jose Molina? Of course. And defensively, he still nails an impressive share of baserunners (18 of 50, as you can see on his baseball-reference.com page). But was he worth giving up Farnsworth? I don't think so.

    3. The Dave Dombrowski factor. Here are the three major trades that Cashman has made with Dombrowski, prior to today:

    1) February 1, 1999. Mike Lowell to the Marlins for Mark Johnson, Todd Noel and Ed Yarnall.
    2) July 5, 2002. Jason Arnold, John-Ford Griffin and Ted Lilly to Oakland; received Jeff Weaver from Detroit, as part of a three-way deal.
    3) November 10, 2006: Gary Sheffield to Detroit for Anthony Claggett, Humberto Sanchez and Kevin Whelan.

    The first two were horrendous _ and those were Cashman's deals. They weren't pushed ahead by George Steinbrenner, or Tampa people, or anyone else. The last one, well, the Yankees benefited by disposing of Sheff. And the Tigers are worse for having him. So far, the trio of young pitchers the Yankees received hasn't panned out, although, to be fair Sanchez needs another year to be at full strength after his 2007 Tommy John surgery.

    So this is a case of buyer beware. Dombrowski and Jim Leyland are as sharp a GM-manager duo as there is in the major leagues. What does it tell you about Pudge that the Tigers were willing to trade him, despite his respectable statistics?

    4. Oh, and forget about offering Pudge arbitration and getting draft picks out of it. He's making $13 million this year. If the Yankees offered him arbitration, he'd get a raise from that, whereas he'll absolutely have to take a pay cut when he goes into the open market. So he would accept the arbitration, without question.

    From reading your early comments, it sounds like many of us are going to be in disagreement. That's all right. It's all in the spirit of debate.

    July 29, 2008

    Instant trade analysis: Mark Teixeira to the Angels

    Just as I (not at all) predicted, in the item below. Great job by Ken Rosenthal, with this story.

    Victory goes to the Angels. Rarely has there been a team that makes the postseason so consistently that has such a consistent problem: Offense. After all of these years of being ultra-conservative this time of year, the Angels are going for it. Good for them.

    So now Vladimir Guerrero has some middle-of-the-lineup help in Teixeira. I'm sure Teixeira will be fired up to play in his first postseason. I'm sure his agent, Scott Boras, is fired up to have Teixeira showcase himself in October as he prepares himself for free agency. And the rest of us should be fired up, because this is a good plotline for October.

    The Braves did all right for themselves. Kotchman is a nice player - more of a doubles hitter than a home run hitter, but that's all right. He's under team control through 2011, so he gives the Braves stability at first base. If I professed to know anything about Double-A right-hander Stephen Marek, I'd be lying my rear end off. I'll let you know what I hear about this guy, when I hear it.

    UPDATE: Rich Ackerman of WFAN and Sirius e-mailed me Marek's Baseball America write-up. Marek pitched for San Jacinto Junior College, the alma mater of both Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. (Insert George Mitchell joke here).

    Meanwhile, with Teixeira in Anaheim, I don't see how the Red Sox can unload Manny Ramirez. Their only plausible scenario in which they could unload Manny and replace his offense was getting Teixeira.

    July 26, 2008

    Instant trade analysis: Casey Blake to the Dodgers

    blake.jpgThe Dodgers, very much in the race in the weak NL West, owed it to their players to make this trade. That said, one official from a team not involved in the deal thought that the Dodgers overpaid for Blake, giving up two good pieces in Santana and Meloan.

    So let's call this one even.

    I agree with David Lennon: This is bad for the Mets. If they don't get Raul Ibanez, they're really going to have to fake it with their corner outfielders the rest of the way.

  • Thanks to this site for the photo.

  • July 17, 2008

    Instant trade analysis: Joe Blanton to the Phillies

    blanton0615.jpgI give the Phillies the edge in this deal, and really, it's a shocker this happened at all. A's GM Billy Beane and Phillies GM Pat Gillick, arguably the top two GMs in all of baseball, have never quite been best friends.

    The Phillies gave up some interesting kids, particularly Adrian Cardenas. But Cardenas is a second baseman, and the Phillies are set there for a very long time with Chase Utley.

    Meanwhile, the Phillies receive Blanton, who become the second A's starting pitcher traded this month. Whereas Rich Harden, traded to the Cubs last week, has the considerably higher ceiling, Blanton is the reliable innings-eater. Despite his shaky 2008 season, Blanton figures to be an upgrade over Adam Eaton.

  • Thanks to this site for the photo.