Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

Greetings from Hartsfield International Airport. Here on a layover between Tampa and Philly, for the final Weekend Predictions (barring insane weather that would keep us going into next weekend) of 2008. Thanks for indulging me.

1. The Phillies, back home at Citizens Bank Park, will prevail in Game 3 tomorrow night, 8-4, as Chase Utley (two homers) and Ryan Howard (one homer) will each bust out against ALCS MVP Matt Garza. The Phillies' starter, 45-year-old Jamie Moyer, will pitch surprisingly well, limiting the Rays to three runs in six innings. "I can't figure out why," Moyer will say, "but many of the Rays' fans identify with me, and they fed me a lot of information about their lineup."

2. The Rays will rebound with a Game 4 victory Sunday night, 5-2, knotting the series back up at two games apiece. Rays rookie David Price, continuing his remarkable October, will pitch the final 2 2/3 innings for the save, then jump into the stands and rescue Santa Claus from some typical Philadelphia trouble.

3. Okay, so last night's game. First time I got to see Price in person. Wow, is he nasty. The pitch he used to strike out Howard to end the seventh, if I recall correctly, was some sort of cutting, diving concoction that tailed away from Howard.

I can't wait to see what the Rays do next year with this guy. How carefully will they try to manage his innings? If he becomes a full-fledged starer, does Tampa Bay shop one of its other starters?

4. Wow, are the Phillies struggling with men on base. 1-for-28 for the series! They have to consider themselves lucky that they're tied. This is where Charlie Manuel is supposed to shine. A la Joe Torre, Manuel's strength is creating a comfortable workplace where players are not consumed by the outside pressure. Let's see how the Phils come out tomorrow night.

Speaking of tomorrow night, the weather forecast has fluctuated from horrible to encouraging, and now back to somewhere in between. As I look at Weather.com, they have a strong chance of showers until about 10:00, at which time the rain is supposed to stop. I'd guess that, rather than have a two-hour delay and infuriate fans, baseball officials would rather call the game early and move everything back a day, eliminating Tuesday's travel day.

5. Howard's struggles have provided some cover for Jimmy Rollins. But Mr. "Team to Beat" is hitless in 10 at-bats so far, and when he's slumping, he reminds you why many protested Rollins' NL MVP trophy last year: He makes a lot of outs. He's not a guy who's going to draw a good amount of walks even during the valleys.

6. B.J. Upton had a better game, stroking singles in his first two at-bats after an 0-for-4 Game 1. I did notice, however, that when he hit into a 6-4-3 double play in the seventh inning, he jogged down the first-base line. Not good.

Richie G., you're in my head. If I find myself challenging Don Fehr to a fist fight this weekend in Philly, then we might have a problem.

7. Tino Martinez was at the game again; he's doing some analysis for a Tampa Bay TV station. baileywalk, I asked Tino if he'd be interested in filling the Yankees' coaching opening. He said that, if asked, he'd have to consider it _ he couldn't coach third base, he stressed, so there would have to be some shuffling _ but his first inclination is to stay home for a few more years. His son is a freshman in high school and playing on the basketball team, and Tino is clearly enjoying getting to be a real dad.

All right, almost time for my next flight. Have a great weekend. But I'll be around.

Sorry for the delay. I was up late last night.

1. The Red Sox, coming off their inspiring ALCS Game 5 victory, will see their season end with a 6-2 loss to the Rays tomorrow night at Tropicana Field. Josh Beckett, the best postseason pitcher of his era, just won't have it, again.

"The better team won," a composed Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein will say afterwards. "We gave it our all, and our future is bright. The only negative is that Schilling will be gloating on his blog, soon enough, about what could have been."*

*In a Posnanski-esque aside, yes, I see that Schilling is distancing himself from his doctor's comments, at the moment. I'm very confident that will change with time.

2. The Phillies will rest and prepare for the World Series, as the Red Sox and Rays keep playing. At a Ruby Tuesday in Philadelphia Sunday night, Phillies centerfielder Shane Victorino will grow agitated when the waiter serves him a cow's brain sandwich, rather than ribs. He will explain, in animated fashion, that it's not all right to serve brains, but ribs are acceptable.

3. Here is the column I wrote last night for Newsday's first edition, when it appeared that Scott Kazmir was going to win the game that put the Rays in the World Series.

4. Finally, just an appreciation for last night's game. At the risk of getting cheesy, that's what it's all about, isn't it? Huge hits, questionable managerial moves, mano-a-mano moments like Coco Crisp's 10-pitch, eighth-inning at-bat against Dan Wheeler in the eighth.

There are people in my profession who just enjoy covering the baseball and deplore the outside stuff. That's fine, but that's not me. I love Congressional hearings, scandals, front-office turmoil, trade discussions - all of that stuff.

But sometimes, it is nice to just keep your eye on the field and take in a ballgame like last night's.

I have no clue what Joe Maddon was thinking, both when he let Grant Balfour pitch to David Ortiz in the seventh and then not lifting Wheeler in the eighth. Shoot, as soon as Wheeler walked Jason Bay on four pitches to start the eighth, the sirens should've gone off.

On the other hand, Ortiz looked so awful in his first three at-bats last night, and he has hit so poorly for the bulk of the postseason, that you would've doubted whether Big Papi could make contact off Aaron Heilman at that point. Was Ortiz doing his version of Fast Eddie Felson, tanking his early ABs in order to cause the Rays to take him for granted? Pretty unlikely, but someone on the train this morning floated that theory, and it made me laugh.

It was a classic, no matter what happens tomorrow night and Sunday. And it's why, as much as I enjoy covering turmoil, the great games stick around longer in the memory bank.

Have a great weekend.

1. The Phillies, leading 1-0 over the Dodgers in the National League Championship Series, will lose today's Game 2, 8-1, as Manny Ramirez will hit two homers. But Philadelphia will rebound with a Game 3 victory Sunday, 5-3, and winning pitcher Jamie Moyer will say afterward, "Beating the Dodgers was the only way I could get that stupid commercial out of my head."

2. The Red Sox will jump out on top of the ALCS in tonight's Game 1, winning by a 6-1 margin at Tropicana Field. Tomorrow night, however, Tampa Bay will respond with a 3-2 victory. Both games will be marred by the profane rantings of a unidentified fan from a third base-side luxury box. "Just wait 'til next year," the fan will shout. "You'll both be bowing down to the Yankees!" Fortunately, the fan will fall asleep by the third inning.

3. Angels manager Mike Scioscia, signed through next year with a club option for 2010, will demand an extension, or else he'll quit. Owner Arte Moreno will call Scioscia's bluff and not grant the extension, marking Scioscia's second unsuccessful squeeze play of the week.

4. So we're a couple of weeks into the postseason , and we still can't talk enough about something that occurred last offseason: The Yankees' decision to pass on Johan Santana.

As you know, I think the Yankees made the right call. But I'm positive, more than anything else, that it's too early to declare this a Brian Cashman failure. Could it be, in time? Absolutely, if Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy never make it and Santana gives the Mets five more seasons like his 2008. But we're not there yet.

One point that intrigued me, however, was this: How would the Yankees have done in 2008 if they HAD traded Hughes for Santana? Brian Cashman, referring to Hank Steinbrenner, said this to me on June 7: ""He told me, in hindsight, looking back on that situation and where we're at right now _ with the offense, the way it's been doing _ having another starter here wouldn't have necessarily made any difference. He would've had X amount of losses because we wouldn't have scored as many runs up to this point as you would've expected, either."

That tune never really changed; even in his Oct. 1 news conference to announce his return, Cashman noted that the Yankees allowed fewer runs in 2008 (727) than they had in 2007 (777), therefore refuting the idea that Santana would've made the difference. What killed the Yankees, Cashman said, was their surprisingly diminished run production, from 968 in '07 to 789 in '08.

Naturally, however, with Santana aboard, the Yankees would've allowed even fewer runs, right? But how big a drop? Enough to make the Yankees a playoff team?

I'm no math wiz; my math dominance ended junior year of high school, with Mr. Fouratt's Math Analysis class. The Baseball Prospectus folks would probably regard my math with the same pity that Lewis exhibited when he was trying to help Stan Gable use a desktop computer in "Revenge of the Nerds III: The Next Generation."

But what the heck. Nothing ventured, nothing gained. So here's how I went about answering this question:

a) I calculated all 30 teams' runs per game.

b) I analyzed all 34 of Santana's starts with the Mets, using his game ERA to determine how he did against the team's runs-per-game average. For instance, in his very first start, March 31 in Florida, he allowed two earned runs in seven innings to the Marlins. That's a 2.57 game ERA. The Marlins averaged 4.78 runs per game. So Santana scored a -2.21 - he allowed 2.21 fewer runs than Florida's average.

c) By adding up all 34 of Santana's "plus" and "minus" numbers _ incredibly, he allowed more than the team's average in just four of those starts _ and dividing them by 34, I computed that, on average, Santana allowed 1.83 runs below a team's per-game run output.

d) Assuming the Yankees would've given up Hughes for Santana, I plugged Santana into the games of Hughes and his successors. Santana averaged 6.89 innings per start, so for every three starts, I gave him 7, 7 and 6 2/3 innings pitched, which averages out to just about 6.89. Should I have given Santana fewer innings in the tougher American League? Perhaps, although Toronto's Roy Halladay (246) surpassed Santana's NL-leading 234 1/3 in '08.

In Hughes' first start, for instance, he allowed two runs over six innings, and the bullpen pitched a shutout seventh, totaling two runs through seven innings. Over his theoretical seven innings, Santana would've allowed 1.99 runs, which I got from taking the Blue Jays' 4.41 runs per game, subtracting Santana's 1.83 and then multiplying it by .77 (to get the seven-inning total). So Santana get a -.01 for the game.

Hughes made six starts, then Darrell Rasner replaced Hughes and made 15 starts, then Ian Kennedy replaced Rasner and made one start that Kennedy didn't think was so horrible. Rasner returned for five more starts before being replaced, mercifully, by Alfredo Aceves. And on Sept. 17, Hughes returned for two starts, giving his "slot" 30 starts overall.

e) Our simulated Johan Santana would've allowed 62.26 fewer runs than that mostly awful procession, giving the 2008 Yankees 665 runs allowed for the season. And a 789-665 run differential produces a Pythagenport record of 95-67, which was precisely the record Boston posted to win the AL wild card.

I still think Cashman made the right call, because, at some point, you have to stop the madness and try to build from within, even if it means missing the playoffs for a year (just as the Red Sox did in 2006). But no longer will I spout the "Santana wouldn't have made a difference, anyway" line, because he obviously would have.

Really, when you look at the fact that Rasner received so many chances and pitched so horribly, it's a wonder how the Yankees pitched so much better, overall, this season than last. The answer? Mike Mussina and the relievers. Mussina went from allowing 90 runs in 152 innings in '07 to 85 runs in 200 1/3 innings in '08. Remarkable. And the Yankees' bullpen ERA went from 4.37 in '07 to 3.79 in '08, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.

Anyhoo, I'm off to Philadelphia for Game 2. Have a great weekend.

1. The Angels will defeat the Red Sox, 4-2, in tonight's ALDS Game 2, Los Angeles' first playoff victory over the Sawx since Game 4 of the 1986 ALCS. To channel that 1986 vibe, the Angels will watch the top-grossing film of that period during Saturday's off day. But when Josh Beckett wins Game 3 at Fenway Park, 7-1, an angry Mike Scioscia will demand, "Why didn't anyone tell us that the Angels wound up losing that series?!"

2. The White Sox will defeat the Rays, 4-3, in today's ALDS Game 2, although the game will be marred by continuing tensions between Orlando Cabrera and Grant Balfour. "Who do you think you are?" Cabrera will shout to the Aussie Balfour. "The guy from the movie the Angels watched?" Tampa Bay will win Game 3 on Sunday, 5-3.

3. The Brewers will stave off elimination tomorrow, in their first postseason home game since 1982, thumping Jamie Moyer for a 12-2 victory in NLDS Game 3. Milwaukee owner Mark Attanasio, feeling emboldened after his late-season gambit worked out, will fire interim manager Dale Sveum after the game and replace him with Robin Yount. "Just a hunch," Attanasio will say. However, in Sunday's Game 4, despite replacing Yount with Gorman Thomas in the sixth inning, Milwaukee's season will end with a 9-2 defeat.

4. Rich Harden will shut down the Dodgers in NLDS Game 3 Saturday at Dodger Stadium, giving the Cubs hope with a 6-1 victory. But Manny Ramirez will continue his wonderful tour in Dodger Blue, going deep twice off Ted Lilly in Sunday's Game 4 to advance the Dodgers into the NLCS. "I'm just being Manny," Ramirez will shrug. "Oh, and I'm also being Hank, Willie, Sammy, Joe, Donnie, Ned and E.T.."

5. The Mets and Jerry Manuel will continue to haggle over the details of Manuel's contract, and Manuel will hit the interview circuit to plead his case. "Two years and $1.5 million is not gangsta," Jerry will say. "Now, three years and $3.3 million, with a team option for 2012 at $2 million and a $400,000 buyout, and escalator clauses for reaching the World Series? That's gangsta."

6. Tying in the last two points, I don't think the Mets should sign Manny this winter. He'll turn 37 next May, and the Mets already have too many players over 35, their pedigree notwithstanding.

Plus, Manny's act is just so transparent, isn't it? He's been on his best behavior with the Dodgers because he's campaigning for a new contract. But once he gets that new contract, is there any reason to believe he won't revert to his ultra-high-maintenance act? Yes, I know, the Sawx won two World Series with High-Maintenance Manny, but it came at a heavy price, and you do have to think that Manny's on-field production will diminish at some point while his off-field agita won't.

No, the Mets already missed their best window for employing Manny. They should've traded for him on July 31, shouldn't they?

I was against it at the time, citing primarily the Mets' need to re-stock their farm system (and not give up pieces for Manny) and, secondarily, Manny's awful behavior in Boston that led to his desired ouster. At the time, however, we didn't know that Billy Wagner was ailing. It appeared (to me, at least) that the Mets had complete enough a club to go all the way.

But what would the cost have been? Perhaps Nick Evans and Bobby Parnell? Daniel Murphy and Parnell would've hurt more. Either way, imagine how many of those dreaded "add-on runs" the Mets would've added on with Manny. For the regular season, Manny put up a .933 OPS in late and close situations. Something tells me Manny would've found a way to win this game, not to mention this game.

I can't kill the Mets, because I backed them at the time. But we can play the old hindsight game, and wonder what could've been.

Let's start with updated playoff seedings:

AL
Angels (1) vs. Boston (4)
Tampa Bay (2) vs. Minnesota (3)

NL
Cubs (1) vs. Mets (4) or Dodgers (3)
Philadelphia (2) vs. Dodgers (3) or Milwaukee (4)

Okay, now onto the deadly serious predictions:

1. The Mets, coming off the high of Thursday night's victory, will sweep the Marlins in a doubleheader Saturday (after tonight's rainout) and win Sunday's Shea Stadium regular-season finale. In the three games, Jerry Manuel will use a total of 18 relievers - and that's with Johan Santana pitching a complete game on Sunday. Manuel will grow so desperate in Saturday's Game 2, which will last 15 innings, that he'll ask Ryan Church to pitch. But Church will swerve around Manuel, avoiding the assignment and raising his arms triumphantly.

2. At Miller Park, the Brewers will sweep the resting Cubs. CC Sabathia, pitching Sunday on three days' rest for the third straight time, will throw seven strong innings to pull the Brewers even with the Mets. After the game, Brewers manager Dale Sveum will say, "Hey, CC, I know we've been working you kind of hard, but there's a slight tear in the ballpark roof. Would you mind grabbing a tool belt and helping out?"

3. At Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies will win two of three from Washington, falling into a tie with both the Mets and Brewers, causing a playoff in which the Mets will visit Philly on Monday, and then the loser of that game will host Milwaukee on Tuesday. The Phillies will be so frustrated by this turn of events that they'll detonate three packages of hot dogs.

4. The White Sox will win two of three from the Indians in Chicago, while the Twins will seep the Royals at the Metrodome, giving Minnesota, shockingly, the AL Central title. After not getting much from the Mets players they acquired, the Twins will prevail Sunday when Carlos Gomez reaches first base on a strikeout and wild pitch and comes around to score on a Justin Morneau double. "That play, alone was worth giving up Santana," Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire will say. "It's not like just anyone could have struck out in that situation."

5. The Yankees will wrap up their season by getting swept by the Red Sox in Fenway Park. When Alex Rodriguez shows up in a full body cast and wheelchair, Joe Girardi will insist, suspicously, "He was just cold and tired. He could play today if we needed him."

Meanwhile, the Rays will get swept by Detroit, giving the Red Sox the AL East title and Tampa Bay the AL wild card. A fuming Hank Steinbrenner will write, "The whole idea of teams besides the Yankees making the playoffs is ridiculous. The Yankees should have their own division and automatically make the playoffs."

6. There seems to be this prevailing idea that, if the Mets don't make the playoffs, newly extended GM Omar Minaya should break up the core of the team. In other words, trade someone from Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and David Wright.

To this, I say, "You cannot be serious!"

First of all, the Mets don't have any real character problems. If you had argued that a year ago, I'd have agreed with you. But not now. Really, given the bullpen's horrid performance for so much of the season, you couldn't have blamed the position players terribly if they had shrugged their shoulders and quit on the season. But that never happened.

Second of all, the Mets have a pretty good nucleus. Whom would you want to trade out of Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, David Wright, Mike Pelfrey and Johan Santana. As Jay Jaffe illustrated in this strong piece for Baseball Prospectus, the Mets have pretty much lived up to their preseason expectations, except for their bullpen.

One reader e-mailed me, "I cannot come up with a trade proposal involving either Reyes, Wright or Beltran where the Mets would not come out on the short end in talent." Ummm, right. Reyes, Wright and Beltran are all great players. They're the types of players around whom you build.

Here's another line I've heard multiple times: "How can the Mets extend Omar Minaya when he can't even build a good bullpen?" The answer is that no GM is hired, fired or promoted based on bullpen construction. It's too difficult and random a science. Minaya put together a great bullpen in 2006, featuring a healthy and productive Aaron Heilman and Duaner Sanchez, and then a juiced Guillermo Mota joined the fun in August. Last year, however, the Mets' pen was awful, and the same goes for this year.

Hideki Okajima was an unforeseen force for Boston last year, as the setup guy for Jonathan Papelbon. This year, Okajima, while still decent, is far more human, and bullpen remains a concern for the Sawx heading into the playoffs.

Break up the Mets? No shot. Just start developing some power arms to put in that bullpen, that's all.

Have a great weekend.

1. The Mets will continue to fend off their past by sweeping the Braves in Atlanta. After the Braves close within 6-5 on Sunday afternoon, with the bases loaded, two outs and lefty Brian McCann up to bat, Jerry Manuel will call Jesse Orosco and ask, "Were you serious about the 'one more pitch' thing?"

2. In Miami, the Phillies will take two of three from the surging Marlins, allowing the Mets to take a half-game lead in the NL East. The red-hot Ryan Howard will hit two more homers, putting himself into the NL MVP conversation along with Albert Pujols, Carlos Delgado, Lance Berkman and, for motivating the Dodgers to acquire Manny Ramirez, Andruw Jones.

3. In Cincinnati, meanwhile, the Brewers will sweep the Reds, keeping the NL wild-card race interesting. A humbled Ned Yost, seeing how much better his team is without his tight personality, will prepare for his next job by purchasing a Joe Torre Relaxation Video.

4. The Yankees will close out Yankee Stadium by sweeping the Orioles in three games, remaining mathematically alive for a playoff spot. Andy Pettitte will win Sunday night's finale, Mariano Rivera will throw the final pitch and Derek Jeter will hit a first-inning homer. Alex Rodriguez, in a fitting tribute of his own, will strike out to end the bottom of the eighth, break for first when catcher Omir Santos can't hold onto the ball, try the Slap Play on Baltimore first baseman Kevin Millar, play poker with Madonna and, finally, opt out of his contract.

5. For those of you who have e-mailed me at my Newsday address, I apologize for not responding. I am experiencing technical difficulties. Hoping to get it fixed today. Thanks for understanding.

I'm off to Atlanta for the Mets series, so I'll be in touch all weekend.

1. The Mets will continue their stellar play by taking two of three games from the Braves at Shea Stadium, further calming their antsy fan base. Jerry Manuel, in a forgiving mood, reveals that the following people are, or were, dealing with a sore knee: Pedro Martinez, Duaner Sanchez, Luis Castillo (actually, he really is) Robinson Cano and, in the filming of this movie, Mike Myers (the actor, not the pitcher).

2. In Philadelphia, the Phillies will sweep the Brewers over the weekend, keeping the heat on the Mets and pulling into a tie with Milwaukee for the NL wild card. With Mike Schmidt providing another inspirational e-mail, the Brewers will receive an odd note from one of their former players, reading: "Please let the Phillies beat you. I really, really want the Mets to miss the playoffs."

3. The Yankees, playing only for pride, will sweep the Rays in three games at Yankee Stadium. There will, nevertheless, be a champagne celebration on Saturday in the home clubhouse, when the players look at their remaining schedule and realize they're done with the Angels.

4. I attended an event last night for an association to which my wife belongs, and the featured speaker was Leon Cooperman. He was highly entertaining, and he offered a number of tips about hedge-fund management. Here is one that I wrote down, because I thought it transferred over to our daily topic:

"Know a good idea when you see one. Make sure the position is meaningful for the organization. Know when to back away when the developments are not as anticipated - effective risk management."

I thought of this in regards to what so many baseball fans love to discuss, at any time of year - the Hot Stove League.

Take the Yankees and what now appears to be their inevitable pursuit of CC Sabathia.

Let's say the Yankees start out with an offer of six years and $150 million, and the Dodgers, claiming relative poverty, offer five years and $115 million. Let's say that Sabathia's agents go to the Yankees and say, "You know, CC really loves the West Coast, he loves to hit...you're going to have to make this a little more worth this while."

Would it be effective risk management, at that point, for the Yankees to increase their offer any more? I see that Rotoworld predicts Sabathia will sign with the Yankees for eight years and $176 million. That would be insane, would it not? What is the likelihood that Sabathia is going to be worth anywhere near a $22 million AAV in 2016, at age 36? Or even 2014, at age 34?

I've generally liked what Brian Cashman has done since becoming a bona fide general manager in November 2005, with a few obvious exceptions (Kei Igawa, Kyle Farnsworth until the very end). But if he re-ups and endorses some huge-money Sabathia signing, for many years, that would seem to be violating the sort of principles to which he has adhered _ and which Cooperman, who enjoys a Steinbrenner-ian level of wealth, endorses.

Meanwhile, speaking of Steinbrenners, I wouldn't get too worked up over this story. Here's how this family discussion would go, if Hank even remembered to have it in the first place:

Hank Steinbrenner: "I think we should have an advisory group."
Hal Steinbrenner: "No."
(curtain closes)

5. And yes, live chat today at 1:00. I hope you can make it.