OK, Yankees fans, here it comes: the annual "What's wrong with Mariano Rivera?" stories in newspapers, Web sites, TV spots and talk radio.
Before we get to the meat of our argument, let's give you a refresher course on The Mariano Rivera Cycle you've come to know and love and loathe.
- Mariano starts the season smoking every batter in his path.
- Mariano hits a little rough patch, usually a one-week vacation from his perch on top of the bullpen world.
- The media and fans go crazy with "He's done!" and/or "Is he hurt?" and/or "Is he finally too old to strike out everyone he faces?" and/or "Maybe we need a new closer."
- Mariano returns to smoking every batter in his path.
- Yankees fans return to normal breathing patterns.
So, with Rivera serving up tie-breaking home runs in the 9th inning in two of his last three appearances in the Royals series, you can bet you'll hear a little "Mariano is washed up" comments around media circles this week, especially with the Yankees now on the West Coast and newspapers needing to fill space for their early editions.
Here's why you should pay little attention to anything written or spoken about the end of Rivera's dominance. It's a look at the times he's given up runs at least twice in a three-game span during the past seven seasons and how he's responded after those blips.
2007
- Gave up 5 runs in 3.1 innings on Aug. 12, 13 and 15, collectively. Afterward, 4 runs the rest of the season (19 appearances, 19.1 innings).
- Gave up 9 runs in 2.2 innings on April 15, 20, 23 and 27, collectively. Then, 2 runs in next 17 appearances (18.1 innings).
Season totals: 3-4, 30 saves, 3.15 ERA, 71.1 innings, 74 K, 12 BB, 4 HR.
2006
- Gave up 2 runs in 5 innings on Aug. 18, 20 and 27, collectively. Doesn't allow a run the rest of the season.
- In 5 appearances between May 11-19, allows 3 runs in 4.2 innings. In his next 11 outings (16 innings), Rivera allows 6 hits and strikes out 14.
Season totals: 5-5, 34 saves, 1.80 ERA, 75 innings, 55 K, 11 BB, 3 HR.
2005
- In 7 games between Aug. 10-23, Rivera allows 5 runs in 10.1 innings. He closes out the season with 19 innings, allowing 12 hits and 2 runs and striking out 16.
Season totals: 7-4, 43 saves, 1.38 ERA, 78.1 innings, 80 K, 18 BB, 2 HR.
2004
- In appearances on July 24 and 26, Rivera gives up five runs in 2.2 innings. He allows eight runners in all of August (11 games, 12 innings).
- Gives up 3 runs in two spots on Sept. 17 and 21. Allows just two hits and no runs in final four outings of the season.
Season totals: 4-2, 53 saves, 1.94 ERA, 78.2 innings, 66 K, 20 BB, 3 HR.
2003
- On May 27-28, Rivera allows 3 runs in 2 innings. Over the next two months, Rivera throws 32.1 innings, allowing 21 hits and 3 walks and striking out 30.
- In games on Aug. 3, 6 and 7, Rivera allows 3 runs in 2.1 innings. He holds teams scoreless in his next three outings, then gives up runs in three of his next four appearances - the least consistent month of his career as a closer. No team scores on him in September (12 innings in 11 games).
Season totals: 5-2 saves, 40 saves, 1.66 ERA, 70.2 innings, 63 K, 10 BB, 3 HR.
2002
- Never gives up runs more than once in a three-game span.
Season totals: 1-4, 28 saves, 2.74 ERA, 46 innings, 48 K, 11 B, 3 HR.
2001
- In three outings from April 22-28, Rivera gives up two runs in 3.2 innings. He then holds team scoreless in his next seven outings.
Season totals: 4-6, 50 saves, 2.34 ERA, 80.2 innings, 83 K, 12 BB, 5 HR.
Exactly what does all of this mean? Well, we don't know either. Basically, it means Rivera has plenty more left in that Hall of Fame right arm of his arm, so don't sweat a little hiccup along the way. Worry more about the starting pitching and the bridge to Mariano. And maybe concern yourself a bit with the inconsistent offense.
- La Monica