On the Yankees beat

We've talked about this on and off a few times. I would say that the Yankees should/and probably will sign him, but it is certainly not a no brainer.

Being a big guy like Sabathia doesn't mean you're going to break down - David Wells was a borderline Hall of Famer who looked like he belonged in a beer league softball team, then again you look at Bartolo Colon and the problems he's had and they've all been weight related.

I would tend to think, that because he's been this big since he came up, that his body is structured to handle the weight. It isn't like he came up as an average sized guy and has just blown up in the last couple of years.

With Andy and Moose probably leaving the Yankees are looking at (best case) a rotation of Wang, Joba, Hughes, Kennedy - the team will need a veteran starter. And while CC is far from an old hand - he's been around a while and been through the wars.

Hmmm...the Yanks will be needing a veteran SP (or 2)???? Santana and Lilly come to my mind.

Santana and Lilly are available???

Well from today's close up (not the TV or video ) of CC in Person his weight is evened out due to his Height, he is at least my Height 6-4 or a lil taller as we talked outside of the staduim as his car pulled in. I did comment on his weight as i said people seeing you on TV would think your fat but actually you are muscular with a slight trim of actual fat. I tild him in seeing all of this i was shocked and amazed that he was a starting pitcher but as i noticed he was more Muscular than David wells and taller. and for the record I think we gave him a big NY endorsement today as he was pleased with the convo and is looking to sponsor the LL leagues here in the Bronx

Keep up the recruiting Bomber....we'll need a lefty in the rotation if Andy Pettitte decides to hang it up after this season.

Kat: Yes, I say the Yanks should try to sign Sabathia.

re sabathia,

it will be very interesting to see how he finishes the year. if he goes 4+ ERA (and he's definitely on his way there...), maybe we can, and should, get him for a reasonable price.
the zito deal really f#$@#ed up the scale for pitchers. yet, if we get c.c. for zambrano money or less, and no more than 4-5 years max (better be options), then i think it's a no brainer.

even this year, as putrid as he's been sometimes, the dude goes deep into games and eats up innings, and we sure need that...

Jim...

Especially with a stocked Offense and deep Pen CC should fit here. From a "selling" point having Joba in the Pen or "creating " another solid 8th inning guy will entice pitchers to want to come here along with the bucks. but a solid pen is a strong selling point.

Selling point? The Yanks aren't selling a house. Sabathia won't care whether Joba or someone else is the 8th inning setup man.

The biggest selling point for Sabathia is the $100M+ contract he's going to get and the fact the team will always do whatever it takes to win.

well said but when you have other teams that can pay that then you weigh your options.

YANKEES
Damon LF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
Matsui DH
Giambi 1B
Cabrera CF
Cabo 2B
Betemit 3B
Molina C

Betemit is back in.

All right Go Betemit!

Sabathia has had 1 great season .Frankly I get the feeling he peaked in 2007.He's only pitched over 200 innings twice in his 7 yr career .He's somewhat injury prone .Career ERA of 3.83 going into 08.He's easily in the top 15 best pitchers in MLB but certainly not in the top 5 and barely in the top 10.

Rick Keyes is right Johan Santana a far greater pitcher could have been had for 3 prospects.

who is your top five in the AL?? I like to know this answer

CC's walk rate is trending down, last year he was amazing at only 1.38 BB/9. HIs K rate has gone up over the same time and will sit between 7 and 8. If he can get a 2/7 BB/K rate, pitch us deep into games, and be our #2 to team up with Wanger, it would be great! He fills a couple needs, a solid MLB ready #1/#2 and a LHP to give balance to the staff. But now the tricky part, the contract.

Listen,

Carlos Silva got 4 @ 60M
Lilly got 4 @ 40

Those guys are middle of the road SP's, the Silva contract is just Sil-ly. It does however give us an idea of the money we are talking about if Silva is getting 15M per year. The guys we should look at are Zito, Big Z, Santana and Peavy.

Peavy ( 26 )- cant be a great measurement since he gave the Padres a hometown discount. He signed a 3 year extension to his current contract for 52M.

08 = 6.5M
09 = 11M
10 = 15M
11 = 17M
12 = 17M

Team holds an option for 2013 for 22M. So if Jake stays on the team through 2013, he'll make 87.5M. Those 10-13 years are what CC will cost.

Big Z ( 26 )- like Peavy, he signed an extension to his current contract. The extension is worth 91.5 over 5 years, but there is an option in 2013 which would make it 110.75M

***Peavy and Big Z are RHP's, both 26, and stayed with the same team, even so Peavy will average 17.3M and Big Z will earn 18.3M. Now lets look at what players are making on the open market***

Zito ( 29 )- 7 years, 126M with an 18M option for year 8 ( think the Giants will pick up that option?? lol ). That contract scares the crap out of me. Zito was bad his 1st year of that contract and now, just 1 month into the 2nd year, he's throwing in the low 80's and has been banished to the pen. The Giants will pay dearly for that contract. Zito will average 18M a year.

Santana ( 29 )– he agreed to a 6 year, 137.5M extension. The deal has an option for 2014 that would make it 150 over 7 years. Johan will average 22.92M, that per year contract is only topped by Arod at 27.5M and is obviously the highest SP per year contract.

So what can we expect to sign 28 year old CC for? I would say its between Zito and Santana.

7 years., 133 M…or 19M a year.

At the end of the contract he would be 35.

So Yankee fans….DEAL…or NO DEAL????

My top 10 SP's ( AL & NL )

Peavy ( I have a series man crush on this guy )
Santana
Webb
Beckett
Bedard
Zambrano
Lackey
CC
Hamels
Verlander

Guys that just missed the list that could be there by the end of the year.

King Felix
Haren
Harang
Halladay
Kazmir
Lincecum
Wang
Sheets
Myers
Wainwright
Ervin Santana

And yours Anon???

series = serious...lol

I usually don’t correct my own stupidity, but that was just weird.

It would NOT have taken three prospects for Santana. Cashman himself said on Mike and the Mad Dog back in March that it would have taken one of these two proposals to land him:

* Hughes, Melky, and two other top minor leaguers (probably Alan Horne and Austin Jackson)

* Wang, Kennedy, and Melky

Sorry, but the Mets can have Santana. It wasn't worth the price in players and cash since they still would have to pay the guy $140M on top of it.

Hughes and Kennedy will figure things out.

DRU

I more or less agree w/ your list but I'd add
Carmona
and Halliday would easily be in the top 5
CC would not make the top 10

Sheets(73-74)
Myers(59-47)
are a stretch.

I'd also add
Smoltz(The greatest playoff pitcher I've ever seen)
Hudson
Gorzelanny(doesn't get the attention he deserves)

I probably could tweak this list here and there

I don't know whether the Katzenjammer Kids will 'figure things out' or not. I have two big concerns about them.

With Kennedy it is makeup. Is he up to the pressure? He looked scared every time he was on the mound this year. Terrible body language, looks like he's cringing. I believe he has the skills to pitch at this level, but does he believe it?

With Hughes it is physical. I think it is possible that his apparent fragility is a function of age. At 21 he is not close to reaching his mature levels of endurance and strength, and may not do so until he is 25. Different kids mature at different speeds and the big kids are often not the early developers in respects other than size. Is the team shoving him out there before his body is ready to handle the load?

These are just my questions. I don't know the answers. But I do think they are important issues.

Dwight Gooden was pitching in the bigs at 19 Bob Feller at 17. It is each in his own time.It's an imperfect science.The failure rate among pitching prospects is 50%.Not minor league pitchers but real blue chip prospects.

Without a 2nd thought... grab Sabbathia. With Giambi, Pavano and Mussina off the books its entirely do-able. Hughes and Ikky will be fine, but after all the injury/location/blindness problems these kids (including Joba) will most likely have innings limitation.

CC is still young (28 next year?). A rotation with CMW and Sabbathia on the front end would be nasty! I'd rather see this happen than even bringing On Tex @ 1B.

DRU

Drop Gorzo from the list add: Oswalt

ruse - I hear you, Im a big Smoltz fan myself, but now that he's injured and going to the pen, I had to take him off my list. My list was more of a ranking for this year going into 09 for SP's.

Myers was in the pen last season and is still working things out, he's a guy that can K 200 and win 18 games though, he makes my top 20 or so.

I agree with you on Halladay, the guy’s a horse….but not on Gorzy and Hudson.

Roy Oswalt is kind of falling off the past couple years, but should be there ahead of Wainwright, Myers and Sheets due to track record.

Sheets is a sleeper, if he could get to 200 innings, he could be a top 10 MLB SP, health is always a concern though...FYI..Sheets is a FA after this season.

I think we covered the top 20 SP's in the league pretty well.

===========

Diane...all very good questions that need to be answered over the next couple years. Before the season these kids were hyped beyond belief, this was a nice hot cup of reality for the both of them...they need to earn spots with guts, not glitter. Im excited to see if they have what it takes. Doesn’t the uncertainty make it exciting!!!!!!

I'd take Halladay over Zambrano or Lackey.

ruse,

Sometimes frequent injury is an indicator that the body is being pushed too far. I don't know if that is happening here but I am concerned that it may be. It would be a terrible thing to waste a possibly successful career through haste. And guys that age are not going to put on the brakes themselves. Somebody else has to be looking out.

And you are is right. It's an imperfect science. No grid that shows how many pitches or innings to advance a kid each year can take account of the individual rate of development.

I would like to see Hughes reach his maximum. Lots more than I would like to see it happen as fast as humanly possible. He is the youngest of this very young group, and shows some signs of vulnerability. I hope he will be encouraged to tarry as long as it takes, both to make a full recovery and to develop at his own pace.

Only because I'm tired of Rick's harping on the road less traveled.

I would rather have CC Sabathia than Ted Lilly any and every day of the week. Lilly is average at his absolute best - Sabathia is a Cy Young winner.

If the Yankees had made a trade for Santana it would have either been Hughes or Wang and Kennedy and thus the Yankees would still need 2 pitchers next season to replace Andy and Moose and they would also be out either Hughes or Wang and Kennedy. So no net gain there.

DRU: Some pitchers that I think could/should be on your outside looking in list, but were not included (in no particular order):

Fausto Carmona
Dice K
Smoltz (though he doesn't sound like an SP anymore)
Chris Young
Brad Penny (he's money when healthy and if you cant put Sheets, you can count him)
Edinson Volquez (Ant, are you reading this? have you seen how well this guy is pitching...it wasn't exactly easy to get Josh Hamilton...just thought I'd throw that out there)
Chris Carpenter (maybe?)

Ruse: Are you saying you'd take Fausto over CC? I'm not so sure I agree.

I'm not a Big Z guy. He seems to fatigue throughout the season and his ERA balloons and that's in the NL. Bedard needs to show me he can pitch a healthy year to be a legit top 5 guy. Ervin Santana needs to show me he can pitch this way consistently. He's a streaky pitcher to me; same guy was sent to the bullpen because of his inconsistency for a stretch last year, but he absolutely has the talent.

My pitchers:

The TRUE ACES
Peavy
Santana
Webb
Sabathia
Beckett

Really Good just the same:
Zambrano
Oswalt
Wang
Halladay
Lackey

Have to show me some more
Bedard
Haren
Harang
Verlander (who could have been in the second group but I think the road to the WS in his rookie year took a toll on him - and that people is why we believe in pitch counts and innings limits)

If only they could stay healthy:
Carpenter
Harden
King Felix

What have people seen from Hughes and Kennedy that make them think that they'll "be fine?" I've seen Hughes spend extensive time on the DL during his first two seasons. I don't see either of them throwing particularly nasty stuff (although Hughes does have that great curveball). Maybe they'll "be fine," but there's no basis for thinking that it's more likely than not that they'll succeed.

Sad to admit, but since 2004, Hughes has spent time on the DL in every year but one. Fortunately, none of these injuries have been to his pitching arm.

Both Hughes and Kennedy have thoroughly dominated every level of competition up to the majors. They didn't just pitch well, they were completely dominant.

They have the makeup and talent to succeed. They've already shown flashes of great things in the majors last season. We shouldn't bury them simply because they've struggled in April.

HYD...
Thanks for the heads up on Dunn, wasn't he an OFd'er? Hope he can get it together, we need a Lefty.
George Kontos is another one of the guys that flew under the radar. 91/95 fastball, slider, sinker, curve, change, the last two are below avg. Looks good, then walks people, but he is better than the last time I saw him. About two years away at least. 27/08.

Anon - there are still plenty of the kids' supporters hanging around here.

If I could talk with Phil and IPK I would tell them an old Confusion quote....

'even the longest journey begins with one step'

The kids shhhallllllll riiiiiiiiiiise aggggaaainnnnn!!!!!