On the Yankees beat

I was talking yesterday in a social situation with a couple of heavy hitters in the NYC financial world and in their words, 'It's going to get ugly, and it hasn't even really begun." As they named specific 'next steps' that they anticipate among the biggest firms in the City, I was chilled.

They were not talking about baseball but a number of wealthy owners could be severely impacted by the failing economy and that will affect how much they spend on their teams.

On the other hand, as other writers have pointed out, sports traditionally have not been as impacted by past downturns as other businesses, since people want distraction and in the scale of things buying baseball tickets is not like purchasing a yacht or dining nightly at Per Se.

As far as NYY goes, they got their new Stadium in under the wire, half their tickets will cost no more next year than last year, and they won't be paying to support their competitors as long as they're paying for the new palace.

As for the competition, Red Sox already refrained from raising ticket prices for the first time in years (of course they're still the champions in terms of prices, with higher average ticket costs than any other team, so the restraint was no biggie).

The downmarket competition will probably be hurting most -- bad time for them to no longer be getting infusions of cash from the Yankees or the Mets.

I would pass on Mussina if he decides to continue playing. Even though he won 20, he gave up more hits than innings pitched, and righties batted well over .300 against him. No matter how desperate the Yanks might be for pitching, these stats tell the real story about just how effective Mussina was in "08". As for Cuban, don't kid yourself. All billionaires base their stock market decisions on insider information. Somebody, somewhere, is grinding an ax for him.

back from the last thread...I love Mark Cuban as an owner, the guy goes all out by putting money into his team. People bash guys like Cuban, Jerry Jones and the Steinbrenners, but they at least put their heart and soul ( and tons of money ) back into their teams. Owners like the ones in Florida and Pittsburgh should be the ones the media makes into villains.

As for the CC stuff, I dont see this getting resolved anytime soon ( sorry Jim A ). CC is going to wait and see what the Cali teams offer him. I dont think the Yanks should play any deadline games like they did last year. I dont however think they should let this go past New Years Day either, but lets not do anything foolish to piss the man off. I really hope the Yanks dont go after Lowe. Everyone points to the fact that his BB was the lowest of his career last season ( big shocker in a contract year ). The problem with that is look who he faced last year

Arizona = 5 GS...2.05 ERA
Atlanta = 2 GS....3.00 ERA
Reds = 1 GS...1.69 ERA
Rockies = 3 GS..3.26 ERA
Pitt = 1 GS...1.29 ERA
Padres = 3 GS...1.40 ERA
Giants = 4 GS...2.57 ERA
Nats = 2 GS...1.13 ERA

Thats 21 starts against SOFT O's. Also look at his home/away splits..

Home = 17GS...117IP...2.30ERA...0.93WHIP....206BAA
Away = 17GS...93IP...4.42ERA...1.39WHIP...292BAA

Sure his walk rate was down, pitching at that park,against these scrubs, hell Id feel good about throwing it over the plate and taking my chances too.

I think his ERA in the AL East will be back in the range of what it was his last two years in Boston...4.47 + 5.42.

I hope to god we pass on that guy. The worst thing would be if we dont sign CC...then the entire thing is screwed up. We'd no doubt overspend on Lowe and AJ, a nightmare scenario for the short and long term. The fact is, we need CC more than CC needs us. He knows that, hence the wait...

I think the best place for Lowe is with the Mets. I also think that anyone who gives K-rod 75M is out of their minds. Did you guys hear K-rods agent talking about his dip in velocity? He said that since his changeup was so good this year that he didnt need to throw his fastball as hard.....rrriiiiggghhhttt. I think he went all out to get this deal in place after he saw what the yanks gave Mo. Any team that gives up that kind of coin to land him will regret it. Plus the Mets need more bullpen help. If they spent 75M on K-rod, they wouldnt have enough to fill their 7th and 8th inning guys. Plus they need SPing and they need OF help. The Mets have some big contracts on their hands and lots of holes to fill. If I was them Id be looking to get..Lowe...Kerry Wood...Mota..and say Juan Rivera to play the OF.

OK enough talk about the Mets. Do you guys think if we sign CC and AJ, that we'll also go after Sheets? That would mean no Andy or Moose. IMHO, Id be ecstatic if we did that...risk and all.

Hey my Yankee friends

I am doing something on my blog this off season where I am taking every single team and comparing the All Time Rosters of players developed through their farm to the All Time Roster of players acquired from other teams.

I just wrote up the Home Grown Yankees vs. Acquired Yankees post and think you Yankee fans might dig it.

You get all the names you expect…
Ruth, Gehrig, DiMaggio, Mantle, Berra, Ford, Munson…

But why did I include Wilcy Moore?
Red Rolfe?

Click on my name to read

Dru,
I could live with Lowe if he were the number 5 starter and that's all. I really do not want the Yanks to think he is some big piece of the puzzle and I don't think he's worth a bidding war.

I'll take:
Sabathia
Wang
Joba
Pettitte
Moose/Hughes

or:
Sabathia
Wang
Burnett
Joba (keep innings down)
Pettitte/Hughes

I'll also want the Yanks to start the season with no less than 7 starters. The last few seasons have shown us that guys get hurt way too often and next year would be no different with the aging Pettitte, Joba's innings limit and Burnett if he came to the Yanks.

Yes!
KEEP JOBA'S INNINGS DOWN!!!!

DO NOT LET HIM PITCH!!!!!

(I'm saying that as a Red Sox fan)

Sully,
The Yanks will only have him pitch against the Red Sox!

CC will be hard pressed to turn down the Yankees offer. I don't see any other team even coming close to the numbers and if there are no higher bidders, the union will strongly pressure him to take the Yankees offer. Can anyone remember a situation where a player turned down more money to play for a team that was closer to home? I am not talking about approving a trade - I am talking about accepting millions less just for geographic concerns. Mark my words - we will see CC in a Yankee uniform in a matter of weeks if not days.

Diane: You bring out a very good point about the economy and baseball. The Yankees are quite confident that the fan base will be there supporting the club. I'm sure that with the trade for Swisher which I like alot. The Yankees will be slicing their budget down. The country is on a roller coaster heading down with every facet of the economy in respiratory need. Baseball will survive but some markets will falter. Miami is headed for another AAA roster. Their fan base is still angry with the former owner's selloff of the ster after the WS win in 2003. Tampa Bay won't be able to afford their top players because the fan base is not commited to the team in fact St. Petersburgh is finding a tough time to come up with the money for a new 400 million dollar stadium for the team.

I believe the Yankees will return to their dominance based on the downturn in the economy and their fan base in the tri-state area. NY metro area supports a good team and the Stienbrenner family will give them a very good team. Hopefully, CC will respond sooner than later and the Yankee plan can unfold as planned.

Its ironic that we are talking about paying a player 140,000,000 dollars over 6 years when the poor fan who pays the ticket price is 5 or 6 figure employee.

Jim M: Pettitte did that when he signed with the Astros and the union was mad at him because he left $10M on the table from the Yanks and the union thought by signing the smaller offer, Pettitte screwed the other FA pitchers that year.

About the offer to CC: The Yanks opening offer was a smart move because it will keep the teams who are afraid to pay the kind of salary he wants from bidding just to drive up the price. Let's say the Red Sox or Angels decide to jump in if the Yanks opening offer was $110M, then one of those teams just figures they want to mess with the Yanks and they offer $120M, while counting on the Yanks to counter their offer, but CC stuns them and signs the offer- now they have to pay a guy some serious money that they may not have planned on.
It reminds me of the Padres situation several years ago when they claimed Randy Myers on waivers just to block another team from getting him and they ended up being stuck with a guy they could hardly afford.

Come on CC!

Jim A,

If the Yanks made that offer figuring that was their best and final.....then thats really bad bidding. If someone wants to just bid up the price there is nothing stopping them. Especially in light of the Big Mouth in charge. I think teams are careful not to get involved in doing things that could be done back to them easier. So the Yanks could more easily hump up someone elses negotiation than the other way around, so why go down that road (unless your the Red Sox).

Larry M,

Swisher makes 2.4M more than Betemit so that was a net salary increase not a cut. I 'm not sure why you think a bad economy favors those with the highest fixed costs. Basic economics says the opposite is the case. Are people more likely to not buy a $15 ticket or a $60 ticket? A $5 hot dog or a $8 hot dog? Don't you think?

Nudge - you know less about the economy than you do about the Yankees and that's saying a lot.

First and foremost it is important to note that all economics is cyclical - the reason this latest down turn seems so much worse is because it had the misfortune of coming during a national election when drama and hyperbole take on a life of their own.

Second - the companies that bought luxury boxes at the old stadium will be buying luxury boxes at the new stadium - it isn't the 25 dollar seat in the upper deck that enable the Yankees to spend the way they do, it is the corporate buyers, ad sales, and tv revenues. Between YES, the corporate sales for the new stadium, and the fact that the new stadium allows the Yankees to not contribute to revenue sharing - the organization is printing money. Also the Steinbrenner's additional revenue streams are not in the fields that are feeling the pressure. Honestly, the Yankees and Royals (owned by the CEO of Wal-Mart) are probably the best off franchises right now in the current economy.

Chip not to bust your bubble but as of now the team is losing in terms of Luxary boxes purchases as well as they lost a great deal of their current season ticket holders due to the rapid increase waht was costing 25, 000 to own for a season is now costing 100,000 I know 10 people whjo was affected by this and the economy is playing a big part of this as alot of wall street based companies have backed out. this could be the reason to really splurge this season to win back some of those fans

Chip,

I guess I'll return my degree in Economics since you said I don't know anything. $50,000 doesn't buy what it used to I guess.

Fact.....MY company,,,,,,a fortune 100 company......is no longer buying boxes to sporting venues.....as are multiple other fortune 500 companies. These are expenses that are the FIRST to be eliminated. Why? Because they discretionary. But I guess they will change their minds because you have a theory that supposes something different. So speak about things where you actually have something more than a theory and actually some facts to back them up. Its embarrassing to have to show your lack of knowledge over and over.

The worst thing is you didn't even address anything I posted. Instead you start going on and on about luxury boxes vs regular seats....which was 100% off point as usual. Add to that some blather about cycles and elections which were out of left field. Sometimes I wonder if your computer is displaying a different language than what I type because you always read things I don't write.

Lastly you STILL show no understanding of revenue sharing. Please do us all a favor and READ UP ON THE SUBJECT and stop posting your theories about it. The new stadium does not give any team an exemption from revenue sharing. That does not exist,,,,it is something you made up and continue to spread about. All teams contribute to revenue sharing as follows.

31% of locally generated revenues but teams are allowed to deduct stadium costs.....leases and in the case of new stadium owned by the teams, the Financing costs of those projects. So it is POSSIBLE that the Yanks and Mets and who ever, may have enough costs to entirely offset their revenues. So there is no automatic exemption. So again you are wrong and trying to sound like an expert to an expert. Stop it before you self destruct.

BTW.....anytime you claim someone else knows nothing on a subject....that usually garrantees that person is an expert. That is pretty consistent with your track record. You love to pose as an expert to experts with NO facts on the subject and get your opinions shot down over and over. Stick to subjects you know about.....like I don't know....Art or something. Maybe talk about Baseball uniforms......that way you can have a baseball opinion that doesn't do any damage to anyone.

Its good to see that after 2 years of being wrong 90% of the time that you're still at it. Something can be said for consistency and perserverance I guess.

Chip,

So tell me expert of experts.....where are these other golden sources of income from the Steinbrenners?

YES Network.......Ad revenues ....DOWN!!
The one year deal with Cablevision is up and there is a possibility that YES will not be available this year on Cablevision and therefore ....Zero revenues from that source.
Shipbuilding......bankrupt!
Horse breeding.......great money there.

It is more like the Steinbrenners are Hemoraging money....not printing it. Do you have personal access to the Steinbrenner finances that you know something different than what is now public?

BTW - Based on last years numbers, the Yankees contributed about $100M into revenue sharing and I believe the estimate is for a $40M writedown for stadiums costs for the coming year. So unless those numbers change radically....the Yankees are still looking at $60M contribution to revenue sharing.

Lol, a Fortune 100 economic's guru posting at 1:00 AM in the morning on a weekday?!

Keep on trollin'!!!!

Kat,

Please ban this troll already, it's getting ridiculous!

Nudge,
I never said the Yankees' offer to Sabathia was there best and final, I just said it was a good opening salvo. To me, if I really want something I don't see any reason to play around and insult the seller (in this case the player) by coming forward with a bid that is below market value which would risk that all important first impression.

At the end of the day, economics aside, these players are human beings and the Yanks have long had success with players by treating them right during the courting process- things that may seem silly to us when we are talking about millions of dollars mean something to the players such as a bouquet of roses for the wives; a fine meal or a visit with former players.

I'm sure someone will bid on Sabathia and the Yanks will raise their offer and I'm certain that some team will bid higher than the Yanks opening offer just to get the Yanks to spend more- it's been done before and it will be done a lot more.

Realist: I don't really have a problem w/ Nudge and I don't really consider him a "troll" like the ones we had over the summer. Sure, he likes to needle us but it keeps us honest.

Jim A.,

I respect you but disagree...

It's funny how his arguments are the same as the troll, plus the wording...

I am on here to discuss Yankee baseball not to argue with a malcontent whom roots for an imaginary team that does no wrong while EVERYTHING the Yankees do is corrupt, evil, or stupid. Sorry, that doesn't fly...

Realist,

I only hear you talk about ME. Practice what you preach young man. Who said I was an Economist? You did!

Jim A.,

Sorry I inferred a bit more into your post than was there. I really was shooting down the thought that others bid up the price of players to make the Yanks spend more. I don't think that works first of all and the Yanks could certainly play that game better than them. The Yanks always over pay for their FA (so Melvin complaint was kinda funny). If anything they bid up the price on their own. But if thats what they want to do to get a player then they have that right. (see Jason Giambi, Yanks bid 20% higher than Oakland, the only other bidder). But thats their advantage.

Tough Game on Sunday! I was pulling for your 'Skins. I wanted to keep them on the Giants heels so there is not letup. Plus the Cowboys make me sick. They celebrate winning the freakin coin toss! It would have been nice for your guys to take them out for good.

Nudge,
The only thing I have to say about my Redskins is....when does Spring Training start? Man, that team is so frustrating to watch!!!