Yes, it is supposed to be wet.
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The forecast is hardening as kickoff approaches, and it looks like the rain will arrive between 6 and 9 a.m. and then blanket the area for the next 12 hours, at least according to this forecast.

But at ease, Owl Country, FAU has plenty of footballs so that Jeff Van Camp should be able to fling a dry one on every play.

Equipment guru Shorty said they had about 80 with them. I think that should do it.

And, just in case, they have a bunch of rice with them. You can stuff a wet ball into a barrel of rice, and in about 10 minutes the rice will have sucked most of the moisture out of the ball.

Plan A and Plan B.

Call the Michigan State game a ‘teaching moment.’

(Quick recap: Last season FAU went to Michigan State with its usual allotment of a couple dozen balls. But it rained the entire game and FAU ran out of dry balls, meaning Rusty Smith was trying to heave waterlogged balls down the field. The rule is the visiting team can bring as many as they want, so FAU won’t repeat that mistake.)

But I was also told Van Camp prefers beat up balls to pristine ones, and doesn't mind a little moisture. We should have a chance to find that out.

I even made a quick trip to Outdoor World and got me a new rain suit because the one I had taken to Michigan State failed like FAU’s offense in the deluge.

So I am ready for whatever Mother Nature flings at me.

NICE DIGS

I’m staying at the TEAM HOTEL, which is actually a resort built on the Robert Trent Jones Golf Course Trail.

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Actually there are three courses here. Very nice digs, but Prattville is 10 miles from Montgomery and out in the boonies.

Because Movie Gallery Stadium is hosting some high school playoff games, there was not walk-through today.

But FAU is familiar with the place, having played there four times already.

ENJOY IT WHILE YOU GOT IT

Troy's stud linebacker Bear Woods has some nice blonde dreds, but check out that high forehead. That means he should probably enjoy those curls while he can.

That’s what a certain tennis player did before he had to shave it off…

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Calling it a night from Bama. Check in Saturday, following Dawn of Game Day 10.

Later…

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Well, maybe it was fitting that when I arrived at Busch Wildlife Sancturary for my weekly meeting with Digger the Wonder Owl, it was just after Digger had a shower.
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And now, he is not deranged. His pupils adjust very rapidly to the light. Bright sun in one eye, slightly shaded in the other...

Rain is in the forecast for Saturday. 80 percent chance from 9 a.m. through 9 p.m., which means it could be more than soggy.

And long-time FAU fans know that like the Wicked Witch of the West, or those aliens in movie Signs, FAU melts in wet conditions (Michigan State).

FAU also does not do well in the cold, and it is supposed to be a tad nippy. So, wet and chilly and, well, there was a reason FAU was 16.5 dogs in this one.

But, like Digger, who didn’t let his shower stop him from doing his duty, we soldier on here at the Friday Prediction Post.

DIGGER UP FIRST

Dig is in the midst of his worst year, but he answers the bell.

I must say there were some tense negotiations in the Hutton household over the Trojan horse.

Longtime blog fans may recall that the last time Connie The Wonder Woman made a Trojan horse for a Troy game, FAU won, and the horse got burned to the ground.

Well, like elephants, women have long memories.

So I had to explain that there was like an 80 percent chance Troy would win, meaning CTWW was off the hook for next season, since I would save the horse and use it again.

If the 20 percent happens, I am allowed to destroy the horse, but not the wheels.
Deal.

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Pretty emphatic on Digger’s part. Troy in a rout.

THE OTHER MIKE

Well, due to his two-game win streak, we are moving Mike Burdman up to the coveted second spot in the Prediction Post.

Mike has moved off the couch after the win, but has some bad news for FAU fans…
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We’ll see if his win streak goes to 3 after picking Troy.

DIRTY TRIO

And we have Dirty Momma, Dirty Phil and the Bag Head up next.
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Noticing a trend here, like everyone picking Troy?

Well, never fear, because

MEDICARE MIKE

Homer supreme Medicare Mike can’t pick against his beloved Burrowing Birds.

But this time he has some facts to back up his case and he is pretty convinced about his pick.
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A slim FAU win.

CHEERIOS

And after an absence, the Cheerios are back.
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Short and sweet, and a FAU win.

BEVERLEE IS THE BEST

Beverlee promised that the FAU D would show up against Arkansas State, and she expects that to continue against Troy.

That said, the weather forecast has her concerned. “I am bringing my boots,” she said.

“It seems like we are always going to Troy,” she said, and she is right. FAU has played Troy six times, with four of those games in Movie Gallery Stadium. This will make it five of seven.

MY TURN

I think I am 4-5 on the season, so take this with a grain of salt...

Yes, the D did have a good game last week, but that was against a shakey Arkansas State offense with a redshirt freshman QB making his first start with a lousy line in front of him.

Troy is a big step up from that. And while QB Levi Brown isn’t a big running threat, he doesn’t have to be, because he gets it to his receivers and lets them do the damage.

I do expect the offense to do OK, but I don’t see the D holding down the scoring enough to win.

The only caveate is the weather. If it is raining hard during the game, both offenses will be affected, but I think Troy’s will be hurt worse, since they don’t have the power run game that FAU does.

That said, I am going with Troy 38, FAU 28.

Your turn.

Later…

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Let’s get Thursday started right with a glimpse of the Dance Team…
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OK, now that we have gotten that out of the way…

HOW TO STOP TROY

Well, just checked the weather, and maybe Mother Nature will help slow down the Trojans.
80 percent chance of rain at kickoff. Should be a miserable day, chilly and wet.

That could slow down both offenses, and could maybe even favor FAU, with Alfred Morris pounding the ball. It certainly makes the 16 1/2 point spread look a bit gaudy.

That said...

Had our scribe session with Defensive Coordinator Kirk Hoza after practice Wednesday.

Obviously the main subject was how to stop Troy’s high-octane offense that only Florida and Arkansas have had any luck slowing down.

FAU does not bring an SEC (or even a Belt) caliber offense into the game.

Tavious Polo said the Troy passing attack could be the toughest they will face, since QB Levi Brown is accurate and the receivers are very athletic and don’t just catch passes but block well downfield.

Polo saw a glimmer of hope in the fact that Brown is not much of a runner.

“He is not that mobile, which is good, because we have problems with mobile quarterbacks,” Polo said.

Give Polo points for honesty, because he and FAU fans still have nightmares about what the likes of Dwight Dasher and Joe Webb did to the D.

Hoza wasn’t buying it, though.

“He will break the pocket but he still looks to pass. In all honesty those guys are tougher. It is a lot harder to run 30 yards than to pass for 15 and let the receiver run for the other 15,” Hoza said, snipping off one of the small threads of hope FAU had of slowing down Troy.

The other threads had already been snipped...

Put pressure on Brown with the pass rush? Uh, what pass rush?

Smother the run and make Brown pass on every down? Smother the run? FAU is ranked No. 115 in run defesne, allowing 231 yards per game.

Now you see why I started out with the pix of the DT. This gets depressing.

But, on the other side of the ball, Troy’s D will be facing the No. 15 offense in the country, as FAU is averaging 444.9 yards per game.

So maybe, just maybe, the Burrowing Birds O can do some damage and keep FAU in the game.

We’ll get into that in a bit.

Later…

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Drew Champlin of the Dothan Eagle has been covering Troy since they emerged as the top team in the Belt those four years ago.

You can find Drew's fine blog HERE.

I asked him to interrupt his packing for the New Orleans Bowl to answer some questions about the Trojans....

1. We've heard about Troy's tough defense, but the stats are kind of surprising. How it that a team giving up 410.4 yards and 29.1 points per game is 7-3 and 6-0 in the Sun Belt?

Check the box scores from the Florida and Arkansas games and that'll tell you. The Trojans did bad against Bowling Green, too, and underperformed against WKU in the first half and North Texas in the second half. They've stepped up to the plate when needed, but I'm not sure they've seen a big back like Morris. UNT's Dunbar ripped off a couple of long runs late on the defense. Also, the offense has been nearly unstoppable most of the time.

2. While Levi Brown is in the spread, looks like he does nearly all his damage with his arm and runs very little. Can you talk about the system he runs and how Troy mixes the run and pass.

Levi has been very accurate this year, though of the 3 interceptions last week, 1 wasn't his fault and 1 was on a hail mary. He's been good at moving in the pocket, buying time and hitting an open receiver. The Trojans run the zone read a lot with the running backs and the run game has been OK - not great, though. Freshman Shawn Southward replaced 1,000-yard rusher from a year ago DuJuan Harris two games ago as the lead guy and did well against WKU, running for 139 yards and 4 TDs. But with Levi, it's mostly a passing attack.
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3. Back to the D. The Bs, as in Boris Lee and Bear Woods get a lot of ink. Can you talk about those two and what they mean to the defense and the team.

The team was 0-2 before Bear Woods (bottom left) could play because of an NCAA-related deal (Troy couldn't produce medical documentation for a redshirt in 2006 though he played a few plays in the first game). Bear (left) is the heart and soul of the defense and Boris, a four-year starter, gets everyone lined up correctly and has a big knack for being around the ball. They will be very hard to replace next year from a leadership and skills standpoint.

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4. Unlike FAU, which was favored last year and started 1-5 before righting the ship, Troy, after that first-game stumble, has lived up to expectations. Talk about how the team has handled the roll of favorite, something the Owls couldn't handle last year.

They said they had a big team meeting after the humbling loss to Bowling Green. It didn't help against Florida, but could see pieces being put together in wins over UAB and Arkansas State. Also, a lot of these wins have been because of talent. They usually have a slip-up every year in SBC play but that hasn't happened, yet. The slip-up could have been against Bowling Green.

5. And, finally, how do you see this game going.

A couple of weeks ago I'd have said Troy in a blowout, but FAU seems to have a good enough offensive line to give the QB enough time to throw and should have a little momentum from last week. Troy's offense has been clicking over the past several games so it'd be hard to pick against them, especially at home. Can't seem to get a final number in my head, but I'd go Troy by 10 or 14.

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Thanks to Drew for the help with this. And I am envious he will most likely be going to New Orleans for the second straight time and third time in the last four years. That many trips to New Orleans would probably kill me, but what a way to go…

Later…

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Back in 2007 this game was for the Sun Belt title, and it was expected that similar battles might take place on an annual basis, given how fast FAU had risen and how solid a program Troy had in place.

But Troy was on top by itself last year, and is on the verge of repeating that this year, with FAU reduced to the role of spoiler. Troy can clinch at least a share of the Belt with a win Saturday.

A loss would delay that coronation until the next week, and could also force Troy to share the title if ULM or MTSU finish at 7-1, which one of them can do. (Though Troy holds tiebreakers over both of them).

Anyway, facing Troy's D will be a big test for Jeff Van Camp.
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I did this story on Van Camp earlier in the week. His play has been encouraging to coaches and players.

And I did this story on David Hinds, the first true freshman to start at middle linebacker for FAU, and the first true freshman to start on defense since lineman Josh Savidge in 2005.

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Hinds (57) had offers from FIU and Middle Tennessee, but liked what he saw at FAU.

MASTER OF OVERSIGNING

So, why can Troy be on top of the Belt for four straight years and from all indications continue to be a top team in future years?

Oversigning is one way. Not to get all technical, but a D-I program can have 85 players on scholarship and can bring in a maximum of 25 players per year on scholarship.

But, up until now, there has not been a limit on how many players a school can sign. For example, Blakeney at Troy often announces a signing class in Februrary of more than 35 players.

How is that possible, when the limit is 25?

Well, not all the players show up in the fall, that's becasue Troy signs a lot of fringe players other schools shy away from knowing a certain percentage won't have the grades to qualify.

When they don't qualify, Troy can steer them to a junior college, ask to gray-shirt, meaning enroll in January when current players will have exhausted their eligibility, or simply say goodbye.

It's legal, but following the lead of the SEC and Big Ten, which set their own signing limits of 28, the NCAA is about to slam the door on this practice.

Oversigning is allowed, but in my view it is counter to what the NCAA is about. Coaches should be recruiting players that are academically sound, and not knowingly signing players with little hope of qualifying.

But it works for Troy, as they have a stockpile of players in junior colleges ready to fill in the gaps each year and keeping the Trojans at the top of the Belt.

Blakeney justifies it by saying that he has always honored a scholarship offer, and he has, though it takes some good record keeping to keep track of who is where and who is eligible and when will they arrive on campus and are there enough spots on the roster.

By signing nearly 40 players, Blakeney is basically saying that he knows 30 to 40 percent are going to wash out academically, most before they ever get a chance to play for Troy.

Howard Schnellenberger and most other Sun Belt coaches have stayed away from oversigning, and I can see why.

When oversigning gets banned, my guess is Troy's ride gets a lot bumpier, and the effects should be evident pretty quickly.

It will be worth watching.

Later...

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A spirited practice Tuesday, and the hard work by the players prompted The Voice to allow the players to take off the pads for the rest of the week, the same thing he did last week.

They proved that they could have just one full-pads, full-contact practice and play winning football.

Some positions on defense are locked up by newcomers who had good outings in their first starts last week – LB David Hinds and tackle Andy Czuprynski and end Jamere Johnson will start against Troy, with Dino Cox and Daniel Joseph moving to second team.

The D-line rotates frequently, so Cox and Joseph will see plenty of action.

Couple players not practicing due to nagging injuries, but nothing too serious and all the starters are expected to play against the Trojans.

TAKING A TUMBLE

When Avery Holley reversed field, I don’t think he imagined the result would be the taking out of 75-year-old Howard Schnellenberger, but….
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That did happen, as linebacker Malik Eugene is the one who chopped down Howard.

He was back on his feet in a hurry and no damage was done.

Later…

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OK, time for Episode 5 of the Howard Bobble Head Doll show.
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Watch Parties? I hear the official one is at Duffy’s in Deerfield, but I have learned not to trust this info because it seems FAU usually finds out that the watch party site can’t broadcast the game on Friday and sends everyone scrambling.

So where are you folks going to be Saturday afternoon?

CHEAP SHOT?

Well, in case there wasn’t enough on the line in this game (If FAU loses, nothing left to play for. Troy loses and their Belt title hopes take a minor hit), there is the stuff from last year.

Recap: Troy’s starting QB was Jamie Hampton, but he got his knee torn up in the third quarter when he was hit by Robert St. Clair. Hampton done for the season and on comes Levi Brown, and the rest, as they say is history.

Troy players are still yapping about it.

FAU might have done Troy a favor, since Brown has been more than good at QB, and took them to the title last year and has them at 6-0 in the Belt this year and should win Player of the Year honors.

Troy Sports Information Director Ricky Hazel’s added fuel to the fire by going out of his way to take a shot at St. Clair in a very odd Player of the Week nomination. Here is what Hazel submitted to the Belt:

"Jamie Hampton (Troy, So., QB) The Trojans signal caller turned in a strong performance in helping the Trojans down FAU 30-17 in what turned out to be his final game of the season. Hampton rushed for a game high 61 yards on 16 carries and scored two touchdowns while passing for 116 yards in three quarters of play before FAU defensive end Robert St. Clair dove in late on a QB keeper and delivered a bulls-eye to Hampton’s knee, tearing the ACL and MCL and ending his season. Ironically, St. Clair took out Troy center Danny Franks two plays later on a similar dive into the pile."

Hazel told me that he was not maligning St. Clair, just mentioning that he made the tackle. Uh, yeah, right, Ricky, whatever. (He didn't explain why he added that second line about taking out the Troy center..)

Here’s the play.
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You be the judge, but I sure find it hard to see that St. Clair sized things up and purposely dove at Hampton's knee.

Anyway, I doubt FAU’s defense is going to be doing any jawing in this game. They haven’t played well enough to be talking any trash.

Later…

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