DEBATE: Can the Mets win the NL East without Wagner?

Jim wrote a column on this topic yesterday. We'll use pieces of that column as the jumping-off point for our debate.
JIM: Division is now Phillies' to lose
The challenge is figuring out how exactly the Mets can win the NL East with their bullpen of shaky, inconsistent middle relievers.
The interim manager's strategy is to not name an interim closer. He prefers to let the situation each game dictate which pitcher he brings in to pitch the ninth. Manuel admitted he would ideally prefer one of his relievers step up and make his decision easy, but who is that guy?
He doesn't know. No one does.
There are less than six weeks remaining in the regular season, 36 games standing in the way of a second division title in three years. Sure, it can still happen. Why not? The best thing the Mets have going for them is that their division is putrid. But the moment the Mets announced the severity of Wagner's injury yesterday, the division became the Phillies' to lose.
Of course that sentence stings, Mets fans, but let's hear you make the case that what happened last night can take place over and over? Do you trust Heilman in a big spot? How about Duaner Sanchez, Pedro Feliciano, Schoeneweis or Joe Smith?
For one more night, the Mets and their closer-less bullpen survived. But the question remains: Just how long can this continue?
ANTHONY: How long can this continue? How about all the way to the playoffs!
Jim, you seem to gloss over this fact: The Mets have won seven of their last eight games without Wagner. If he had been healthy, want to bet he would have blown one or two of those games?
Wagner is a good closer, not a great closer, and the closer position is overrated anyway. Yes, the eighth and ninth innings will be an adventure with him out, but I say the Mets will still win the division. Just maybe not as easily.
Look at the Phillies. They are capable of going on a long losing binge at any time. The Mets have a clear advantage in starting pitching. That's what's going to win you games -- the starting pitcher, not the finishing.
Plus, the Mets have a little Manuel Magic going for them. I don't think Jerry Manuel is the greatest skipper ever, but he has established a positive attitude around the Mets, a sort of "we should win this thing" vibe. That should carry them through the times when their bullpen does blow a game or two. It's much better than Willie Randolph's "we better win so everyone will think I'm a good manager."
So to answer your final question: How long can this continue ....
Right to the first round of the playoffs.
And then the Mets will be crushed by the Brewers. But that's a topic for another day.

Comments (3)
The Mets' worst records so far are against the Braves, Astros and Padres--unlikely playoff opponents. 0-2 against the Cubs and 1-2 against the Brewers so far are too small samples to be meaningful The Mets have always handled the Brewers well and I have no reason to think 2008 would be any different. The Cubs are the Cubs and will pull a Bartman somehow. It's their way.
Can the Mets win without a closer who's been the worst All Star since Armando BenÃtez? Absolutely. Anyone can blow 6-7 saves and maybe someone dependable will emerge.
I'd prefer having a shut-down closer, but with things the way they are, I think the worst thing Manuel could do right now is arbitrarily 'name' a closer.
If you don't have a true closer, why name one? The effects of having an 'official' closer who isn't automatic are devastating:
1) You send him out even if he's got a long record of sucking against a certain team or player(s),
2) You keep him in way too long, even when it's clear he's wild, or just doesn't have it on any given night.
3) Sense of utter dread that the ninth inning brings after your 'closer' blows a couple of saves. When it's not the closer, it still hurts, but I don't think its as psychologically damaging to gradually lose a game between the 6th and 8th innings as a ninth inning walkoff.
The advantage of having an officially named closer is the routine, the fact that he's able to prepare for the ninth inning in advance, rather than jumping up every time the opposition starts a rally past the fifth inning.
To answer the question, I think the Mets chances are still good - it's basically even money now, and the Mets have a lead.