Temper Your Expectations
That could really apply to anything -- a good meal, internet dating, The Police reunion tour -- but I'm referring to the Giants' free-agency moves. I base it on very limited evidence and my own intuition, but I don't expect the Giants to be splashing in the deep end of the pool at 12:01 Friday morning along with the Dan Snyders of the NFL.
I talked with Giants president John Mara today. He's never been afraid to spend, but he told me this: "You can't fix all your problems in free agency. A lot of teams have been successful with so-called 'second-tier' free agents, guys who didn't get all the attention right away. And you still have to draft well and develop your players. That's how you win."
John Mara knows how to play the game, so I don't necessarily believe the Giants will wait patiently while every other team bids like crazy for Nate Clements or Adalius Thomas, but I don't see Jerry Reese persuading Mara that a $15-million signing bonus for one of those guys (or Leonard Davis, or Ahman Green) will pay off for the Giants.
If they believed that money was no object, then the Giants would have upped their offer to Shaun O'Hara already. It appears they won't do that, so the Giants may end up with two new OL for 2007. And a new kicker. And a new LB, new CB, new RB... You get the idea.
This is a team in transition, and this is only the beginning. So spending mad money on one guy makes even less sense if Reese, Mara and Co. are taking the long view -- that can't be much solace to Tom Coughlin, who needs to win this season, but the Giants will look completely different in 2008 or 2009 -- new coach, no Strahan, no Toomer. The process is starting now; it started when Tiki retired and Reese cut Petitgout.
So, while it's a sure bet that the Redskins will overpay for someone the minute FA starts, I'm betting the Giants will be patient and come away with a Cato June, a Tully Banta-Cain, a Musa Smith.
Keep checking back here once it all starts to get updates.