By Ken Berger
I just spoke with Bob Glauber, so I’ll give you the scoop on his feeling that Leinart will drop all the way to the Vikings at 17. Perhaps the biggest unknown in the first round is what the Titans will do at No. 3. There are indications that GM Floyd Reese is sold on Vince Young, but owner Bud Adams might be pushing for Leinart. I’ve always felt that the Titans would pick Leinart because of OC Norm Chow’s history with him at USC.
But remember: NFL coaches and scouts become worrywarts at this time of year. And while Chow knows better than anyone what Leinart can do well, he also is more familiar with his faults than anyone else who has evaluated him during the pre-draft scouting period. Sometimes familiarity breeds contempt, as they say. Having said all that, I certainly disagree with Glauber about Leinart falling THAT far. But he assures me that while he has found himself within wafting range of numerous smokescreens in recent days, he has not inhaled.
There’s a lot of chatter about Dewayne Robertson on this board, and for good reason. I agree with the likes of Matty Rod and Jet Fan Jay that Robertson is not a 3-4 nose. Then again, he played three-technique in Herm Edwards’ 4-3 the past three years and underachieved. If the Jets don’t trade Robertson – and I don’t expect them to – then his future with the team is going to come down to coaching. Mangini & Co. are going to have to find a role for this guy in which he can succeed.
I like yeselson’s bit about trading 4 and 29 to the Niners for 6 and 22 – but only if Mario Williams is off the board at 4. If they can’t have Williams, the Jets would do well to bluff the Niners into thinking they have to move up to 4 to get Vernon Davis. The Jets could still get Ferguson at 6, and would have a better shot at Manny Lawson at 22. But there are too many moving parts here. What if the Cowboys take Lawson at 18? And how do the Jets convince the Niners that they have to move up for Davis when everyone seems to think the Packers are taking A.J. Hawk at 5?
The best way to move back from the fourth pick would be to sucker a team that is hot for a quarterback – like the Raiders appear to be for Cutler. But again, too much uncertainty. I still believe the most likely scenario is that the Jets pick Ferguson or Williams fourth and then take stock of the landscape at 29. They have the picks they need to move up a few spots from there if need be. KL wants to know what the Jets wouldn’t trade with the Texans for the No. 1 pick and select Reggie Bush. According to the value chart, the fourth, 29th, and 35th picks would just about do it. So far, Texans GM Charley Casserly is on record saying he’s had no interest in the top pick. While Bush is an elite player, I think the Jets have too many needs to select him and then go until the 71st pick without making a selection. It’s the more-is-better theory that many of you have mentioned – a theory that a guy named Belichick in New England has always adhered to.
If they can get a starting left tackle (Ferguson) at 4, a future starting center (Nick Mangold) or running back (Laurence Maroney) at 29, followed by a quarterback to groom as Pennington’s replacement without the pressure of picking him high (Brodie Croyle or Kellen Clemens), I’d have to say that’s preferable to getting one great player who would have no supporting cast.
Remember, Belichick has won three Super Bowls without a blue-chip running back. The Patriots protect the quarterback, give him a release valve with a pass-catching tight end, and control the clock with a power running game when they get ahead. That is what I expect the Jets to attempt to do, and they need a solid draft from top to bottom this weekend to do so.
Finally, a word to John Doe: Thanks for noticing the similarity between Glauber’s take on Leinart and Todd McShay’s. As for the Star-Ledger joke: You evidently are not who I thought you were, so carry on.
Comments (21)
Ken, while I agree with you that if Williams is there at the four (meaning New Orleans takes Ferguson) you have to take him. However, with the Jets switching to a 3-4 scheme, that would mean they have 4 high paid D-Linemen in Ellis, Robertson, VonOelhoffen and Williams. Do you see a team spending that much on one position? Is Robertson tradeable with his huge contract? Am I going crazy from the over-hype of the Draft? (I'll answer that one, it's yes.)
THAT'S IT!!!!! I can't take anymore draft scenarios, rumors, trades, smoke screens, etc.; I think I have short-circuited my brain. LET THE DRAFT COME ALREADY!!! I say this now, but I know, unfortunately, that I'll be back before Saturday. "Right when I think I'm out...they pull me back in." I don't know how you put up with it Ken. Good Luck.
Thanks for kind words. Only way the 'Niners 4/29 for 6/22 works is if the Jets actually TAKE Davis, i.e. the Jets have to be prepared to keep the Davis, if the Niners aren't as hot for him as everyone assumes.
I think that's a fine outcome, as Davis is the gamebreaker the team doesn't have--that's why I think it's a win/win--keep Davis or trade him off and move up in the back end of first round, and get D'Brick (or Hawk) at 6.
Ken,
Excellent blog. I'm surprised more writers haven't gotten into this. It's a great way for fans to interact with the guys on the beat - and really, aren't the media supposed to be representing the fans?
Anywho, nice points about Chow and Leinart. I doubt the Jets will make any trades. I think they'll just have to be satisfied with whomever they get at 29. I just listened to Glauber's audio report, where he talks about how it will be hard for the Jets to screw this draft up. But I disagree. I think drafting the Maryland TE, if they decide to do that, would be a mistake. Like it or not, you don't build a team around a tight end. You can build an offensive line around left tackle or and offense around a QB. That's why I say Leinart or Ferguson should be the pick.
Thanks for listening,
JYD
You dont think the Jets would bluff everyone out and then take the TE at no.4, do you? If so, the rest of the draft may be postponed in the aftermath of the ensuing riot by angry Jet fans...
Beware a runner at 29, when the teams has so many other needs--they can find another health set of legs in later rounds.
You make a key point about running game in the modern NFL--in the modern era (since the '78 rule changes that made pass defense tougher and pass blocking easier, and the beginning of the 'Niners great Montana/Young/Rice teams), passing is the key to offense in the NFL--otherwise Barry Sanders, whom Bush is said to resemble, would have a number of Super Bowl rings, as would other great runners like Walter Peyton, Curtis Martin (0), and Eric Dickerson (0), to name just three. (Emmitt Smith had a hall of Fame QB, a great offensive line, great receivers, and great defense--otherwise, he didn't have any help at all). Good offenses pass to get ahead--like the Steelers, who despite their reputation, had the best yards per pass attempt in the NFL the past two years--and run to stay ahead in the second half (the Steelers do most of their running after they've got the lead). And good offensive teams use their backs as passing weapons, as much as they are running threats.
The average in the NFL is 4.2 yards per carry--the Colts will plug in some guy who will more or less do that this year to replace Edgerin James and they'll still go 13-3. If you don't believe that, then you think that Roger Craig won all those trophies for SF, or that a health Corey Dillon helps the Pats more thana healthy Tom Brady.
Ken-
Glad to see you running the blog for the draft! Excellent work, it's great to read your opinions which as a beat writer, you should be able to more freely give since yours would be the most informed...
That being said, I would be interested to see Glauber's thoughts on a blog, but I guess he is already paid to give his opinion. I know that Glauber is being a good columnist and being a lightning rod on purpose, but #17 for Leinart is a bit extreme, and worth some jabs.
Keep up the great work, and check out my blog if you get a chance.
I like the idea of the Jets trading with SF, but it looks to me like the #4 & 35 match up a lot better with the #6 & 22, than both first rounders. Who does SF love? I don't know if they'd jump for Vernon Davis, but they might for Mario Williams.
If they can't do a deal with SF, then I'd love to see them deal with the Raiders for the #7. With a lot of chatter about the teams at 5 & 6 willing to trade out for a QB hungry team, the raiders might be convinced that they need to move up. They dealt with the Jets last year to do it. Ultimately, I'd love to see them trade with the '9ers AND THEN the Raiders. Collect enough picks to move back up at the bottom of the round if they like.
I don't understand why every NFL sportswriter assumes that the Jets will boo any pick other than Leinart. There seems to be a big mix of opinions among Jets fans if they should choose Leinart, Williams, Ferguson, or Davis.
Jon-
Exactly, which is why there will be booing... if Davis isn't picked, or D'Brick isn't picked, or Leinart isn't picked... only the 20% of folks who got what they want won't be booing... :D
Thoughts on this mock draft ?
I wanted to give the Jets Lawson, as Zimmerman did in this week's SI, but I just can't see a pass-rusher who runs faster than most WRs falling all the way to #29.
(FYI, go to the link underneath the selection and search for the player's name. Next to the name will be a little camera icon, click for highlights of that player)
1 (4) - OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson, Virginia
Amid all the speculation about the QBs and Vernon Davis, I think the Jets make the smart, safe pick with Ferguson. Not a dominating drive blocker, but one of the best pass-protectors to come out in nearly a decade and will be a fixture on the Jets OL for years to come.
D'Brickashaw Ferguson highlights
1 (29) - RB DeAngelo Williams, Memphis
I hesitate on this one for two reasons: 1) I have not heard Williams connected with the Jets at all (other than in various mock drafts), and 2) Mangini was mentored by a guy who would never take a RB in the first round. But the three guys I think the Jets would take at this spot: LB Bobby Carpenter, OC Nick Mangold, and OLB Manny Lawson, will all be off the board. I also do not see the Jets going for OT Marcus McNeill (who they supposedly love) after taking Ferguson. Williams is a talented running prospect with amazing quickness and homerun ability.
DeAngelo Williams highlights
2 (35) - QB Brodie Croyle, Alabama
I am convinced the Jets will take a QB in this draft. They may make this trade for Cutler at #13, but I doubt it. According to Berger, the Jets have come to a consensus that Croyle is the best of all the QBs after the "Big 3", though one high-ranking official in the war room is pushing for Clemson QB Charlie Whitehurst. There are questions about Croyle's past injuries and slim frame, but he has the arm, athleticism, and intangibles to be a quality starting QB in the NFL. 35 may be a bit too high for him, but you're not getting him at 71. So if the Jets want him, they have to take him here.
Brodie Croyle highlights
3 (71) - OLB/DE Chris Gocong, Cal-Poly
The Jets supposedly had a real good visit with Gocong, who was more than a big fish in a small pond - more like the Loch ness monster in a small pond. 41 sacks the past 2 seasons, including 23 last year. Smart, hard working edge player who hits like a ton of bricks. Has been rising up draft boards since various teams worked him out and became convinced he can play in a 3-4 scheme.
Chris Gocong highlights
3 (97) - DE Victor Adeyanju, Indiana
Another edge player who could fit as a 3-4 SOLB. Good chase defender who plays with power and leverage. Athletic enough to cover. The Jets need more of these types for their new defense. Hobson and Barton do not rush the passer well enough off the edge, and you cannot expect anything out of Bryan Thomas.
Victor Adeyanju highlights
4 (103) - DT Montavious Stanley, Louisville
I think the Jets will try to resurrect the career of DeWayne Robertson. Remember, there were rumors back in 2003 that the Pats were trying to trade up ahead of the Jets to take Robertson, so they obviously felt he had a place in the 3-4. Mangini probably has some idea of how they were planning to use him. However, due to BBK's knee problems, he will probably have to be used as part of some type of rotation for the rest of his career. The Jets signed Monsanto Pope, and have the underwhelming Sione Pouha at DT, so more is needed. Stanley is a well-built 310 lbs DT who can stack against the run and hold up in a two gap scheme. Was a big reason why Elvis Dumervil led the nation in sacks last season.
(No video)
4 (117) - OC Greg Eslinger, Minnesota
Ferguson was a good start, but more help is needed along the OL. Eslinger is a very smart, athletic center who cut blocks and plays the angles well. Not very physical and is not going to push any NTs off the line of scrimmage. However, if the Jets have Ferguson, Jones, and Eslinger, they have the making of a pretty nice Denver-style OL, which relies more on intelligence and mobility than size and strength.
(Search “Eslinger”) - Greg Eslinger highlights
5 (138) - ILB/OLB Kai Parham, Virginia
Parham has been dropping due to the criticism that he simply is too slow to play LB in the NFL today. However, due to his intelligence (graduated in 3 1/2 years), production (100 tackles, 8 sacks in 2005), versatility (can play inside or out), and familiarity with the 3-4 scheme makes him a solid gamble at this spot. Playing LB under Al Groh doesn't hurt.
Kai Parham highlights
7 (211) - DE Darrel Adams, Villanova
Von Oelhoffen probably won't be around for more than a year, so the Jets need another guy who fits the mold of a 3-4 DE, and Adams is that player. Not a pass-rusher, but strong enough to tie up blockers in a 3-4 scheme. Solid value pick at this point of the draft.
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Ken,
Great Job on this Blog. This draft is making me nuts HAHA... With all the articles and now Lupica at the news hot on Leinart (today's paper). We need to forget the hype about a qb in 1st round. We need Dbrick or williams -Enough said. Championship teams have solid offensive & Defensive lines (Ex: Steelers, Patriots, etc).
I could put up with one more losing season. Let's get this right developing a solid supporting cast. Build the team then get your QB of the future next year. If we win 8 games next year I will be thrilled. I am glad we got rid of Herm. I know teams hate to say were in a rebuilding stage but we are at that stage. Its time to move on - If we build a solid foundation a young qb can thrive (Example: Steelers - They had a solid team and no qb). Then they drafted a qb and in two years were superbowl champions.
If we do this right we can be a championship team in three years. We need a good plan and I hope Mangini & co develop one.
Thanks,
Rico - Brooklyn, NY
Hey, Berger, what's with that picture of you on the website? What are you trying to do, become a "B" movie actor?
Slats is right about the 4 and 29 for 6 and 22 swap. According to the chart 4 and 29 are worth 2440 points, 6 and 22 are worth 2380, meaning the Jets are overpaying by 60. 4 and 35 are worth 2350, meaning the Jets would owe another 30, so maybe we get a 5th(23.2) or 6th(37) involved as well. Having said that I don't see this trade happening, the Niners traded up from 37 in the second round to get to 22, why trade back to 35, just to get up to 4? Doesn't make sense to me.
I keep hearing that Mangini comes from a place where they don't spend high (1st round) picks on QB's. Lets get this straight, when Belicheck got there he had Drew Bledsoe, former #1 overall pick in the draft, so he had the luxury of taking a chance on Brady in the 6th round. Enter Mo Lewis, who hit Bledsoe so hard I think he still has internal bleeding, knocking him out of the game and changing the fortunes of that franchise forever. Brady steps in and becomes the leader nobody could predict, thus alleviating the need for the Pats to draft a QB with a high pick.
Having said that I don't think the Jets will draft Leinhart, Young or Cutler in the 1st round. I think they take either Ferguson or Williams, whichever is available, unless the Raiders want to move up. If they move down to 7 and pick up extra picks I could see them using a couple to move up from 29 to grab a player they like (maybe Manny Lawson or Bobby Carpenter).
Any way the Jets go there shouldn't be any booing, they have so many needs that it is almost impossible for them to screw this up, any player they pick will surely fill a desperate need (OT,QB,RB,TE,DE,LB,CB).
I can't wait for this to get under way, enough talk already lets draft. I haven't been this excited for a draft since the Jets had 4 1st rounders in 2000.
Hey, Berger, what's with that picture of you on the website? What are you trying to do, become a "B" movie actor?
Uh oh... them's fighting words...
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