Gettin' picky with it
R in CT, an occasional commenter on this blog, and a much more frequent contributor to one of the best fan sites anywhere, thejetsblog.com, seemed to capture the prevailing sentiment of Jets fans this week.
Writing mid-week about this weekend’s game against the Bengals, R in CT wrote, “To paraphrase Gen. Ackbar of the rebel alliance: ‘It’s a trap!’”
Star Wars references are always appreciated – this particular one from Return of the Jedi – and my only disappointment with the writer in this case was a slight mistake in referring to Ackbar as a general rather than his proper title of admiral. If that qualifies me as a participant for a different version of the “The Biggest Loser,” so be it, and in the interest of full disclosure on Star Wars-related stuff, I will tell you that perched atop the NFC's media guides in my work space in Florham Park, is a small plastic Boba Fett figurine.
And when it comes to Return of the Jedi quotes I much prefer C-3PO’s description of the all-powerful Sarlaac to the small group of the condemned.
“In his belly you will find a new definition of pain and suffering as you are slowly digested over a thousand years.”
Kind of like listening to Cubs fans in the last week.
Anyway, the issue most pressing is this: many Jets fans looked worriedly at this game and that was BEFORE Marvin Lewis’ announcement Friday that Ryan Fitzpatrick, the former Harvard quarterback, would start for the injured Carson Palmer. So are you more concerned now? Less?
I will steal from another 80’s movie character, Mr. Miyagi.
“Different, but same.”
Different in that Ryan Fitzpatrick is not Carson Palmer, but same in that the Jets should still win, because regardless of who is behind center for the Bengals, here’s what Cincinnati was bringing to the Meadowlands: an offense ranked 29th in the league in points scored (14.8), 31st in total yards (239.2), 30th in rushing and 27th in passing (161.2).
“We all look at that team and say, ‘It's just a matter of time that they explode’” Brett Favre said Wednesday.
And it was at least possible to envision that happening with Palmer playing and flinging it around to Chad Ocho Cinco and T.J. Houshmandzadeh but with Fitzpatrick? Not to flippantly dismiss someone who doesn’t have much in the way of a trail of tape to follow, but against a bad Browns defense in his last start, Sept. 28, he threw three interceptions and was sacked three times. The Jets defense, obviously, has not covered the slot at all this year and has struggled against the pass – particularly on third down – but two things the unit has done is sack the quarterback (13 times) and force turnovers. Relating to that, one constant of previous Marvin Lewis-coached teams was their ability to win the turnover battle, but this year they rank 27th in the league at minus-four. The Jets rank seventh at plus-two.
The Bengals defense has been a little better than their offense. It ranks 19th overall (338.6), including an impressive No. 6 ranking against the pass (167.6). But that is misleading in a way because the Bengals are so terrible against the run – ranked 29th (171.0) – teams haven’t had to pass. Favre should be able to torch a young, mistake-prone secondary, and this would also be the week to get Thomas Jones and Leon Washington consistently involved. As for rushing the passer, do the Bengals at least do that well? Nope, just three sacks this year.
Speaking of sacks, the Bengals have given up 14 this season behind an offensive line that, strangely, only gave up 17 all of last year. That kind of year for the Bengals but, as the bottom line goes, bad teams make bad plays and find ways to lose. Good teams do the opposite.
The jury might still be out on what kind of team the Jets ultimately are, but the jury already has come back on the Bengals for this season: guilty, on all charges, of not being very good.
I thought this would be a close one - even with a limited Palmer - but I don’t see an advantage anywhere on the field for Cincinnati, which expended a lot of energy last week in playing Dallas to the wire. I keep looking at all the matchups to find a case for Cincy other than the unknown quantity that is Fitzpatrick, but that’s just not enough. After some early emotion and maybe a few plays made by Fitzpatrick as the Jets get adjusted, to me it looks like…
Jets 27, Bengals 10.
* Moving on to the rest of the league and the picks. We tourniqueted (not a word, but whatever) the bleeding here somewhat last weekend in the NFL, going 7-5-2 to move to 38-33-3 overall. Having rambled enough already this evening and not yet done doing so, I present this weekend’s picks against the spread and with my sincerest apologies in advance and the advice to not use them for any cash wagers [best bet in CAPS]:
Colts, Falcons, Raiders, Seahawks, Browns, Cowboys, Texans, Redskins, Eagles, PATRIOTS, Panthers, Lions, Broncos.
Again, before jumping to the college selections, a reminder the above picks are against the spread. Meaning, for example, I don’t actually think the Browns will beat the Giants, just cover the spread (yes, I have an idea of what you’re going to say, John Z, but call it a hunch).
* Now, on to Saturday, a day last weekend I went 1-2 and went to bed playing the “If” game.
IF Auburn had even a I-AA caliber offense it would have beaten Vanderbilt; IF Wisconsin’s linebackers didn’t simply stare at Terrelle Pryor on his game-winning touchdown run the Badgers might have held on to upset Ohio State; IF that blonde at the bar…well, forget it.
Notre Dame, as it has all season, came up a winner for us last Saturday so we’ll start with the Irish. Several readers have misconstrued comments made here in recent weeks about Notre Dame so I should clarify. I do not hate ND. In fact, if you grow up in Northeast Ohio as I did, the two most popular college teams are Ohio State and Notre Dame. The thing about the Irish is this: I keep waiting for these top 10 recruiting classes I’ve been hearing and reading about for the last six or seven years to kick in. This 4-1 start against a joke of a schedule has me wondering: are the standards in South Bend so low now that escaping with close victories against lousy San Diego State and Stanford teams really cause for celebration? As Gov. Palin might say, “Say it ain’t so.”
They’re better than that. Or should be.
* But I do believe the following: Notre Dame is still woefully behind the top teams in terms of speed and athleticism, but Jimmy Clausen is a legitimate stud quarterback. And therefore, when it comes to our immediate concern, I take Notre Dame to cover the nine points against a solid UNC team. North Carolina should win, but I see it close, mainly because of Clausen.
Quickly, to a couple of headliners this weekend: I’ll take No. 1 Oklahoma to cover a tough number (6 ½ at last glance) in the Red River Shootout against No. 5 Texas. And it should be just that – a shootout – with the respective stats Sooners’ QB Sam Bradford and Longhorns’ QB Colt McCoy have put up. The last time both these programs were ranked in the top 5, in 2004, Oklahoma won 12-0 in one of the dullest college games I’ve ever seen (not in the same league, however, as that 3-2 Auburn win over Mississippi State). Saturday’s Red River Shootout assuredly won’t be anywhere near either of those scores.
Finally, to the SEC Saturday night with LSU visiting Florida. Strictly a home-field situation on this one. Going with the Gators to win but LSU to cover. Six points is a big number when it comes to two pretty equal SEC teams.
Not much more that can be done from this end. Talk to you Sunday from the Meadowlands.
E-mail
Facebook
Digg
Delicious
Comments (19)
E-Bol,
NEVER, EVER feel the need to defend yourself for being a Star Wars fanatic! The Trekkies are the real dorks. So, may the force be with you and the Jets.
OK Erik, comig off an 0-2 record in my games of the "weak" last week, I am tryting to rebound myself. For my first game, I am liking Ball St to cover the 15 1/2 over W. Kentucky who is at home.
After seeing them destroy Rice, I know not to hard to do, I will go with Tulsa to smoke SMU, very willingly laying the 25 pts.
As for the hat trick, this one is a real doozy. I really like Louisiana Lafayette to go into N.Texas and beat them by the 21 1/2 pts that they are laying.
So thats all I got. Three road teams, all heavily favored. What can I say, as anyone who follows college football knows, as the season progresses it just gets tougher and tougher to pick these things.
Good luck to you this weekend. I have a feeling we may need it more than the Jets. Had a good feeling about them winning this game to begin with. Now, not sure there was one to begin with, but there are definetely no excuses, they have to win this game.
Go Jets!!!
Good Grief. Star Wars?
Using memes now, eh?
EBo,
Go watch the Admiral Ackbar Cereal commercial on Youtube.
Imitation Crabmeat
P.S. Please God don't let Ryan Fitzpatrick go all Trent Edwards on us.
EB,
Step away from the T.V.!!! Especially the 80's (tv classics) station, it will not help you get a life away from that futon.
Let's take a look at how the Jets are faring against second string QB's this year. 0-1, that 1 was NE, so don't get to confident boys and girls.
Even if Sarlaac was going to digest you over a thousand years, wouldn't a human (or humanoid) pretty much die of starvation during the first couple of weeks? I mean, just being in Sarlaac's tummy doesn't abate the general need to ingest nutrition, does it?
What about water? A human will die of dehydration after only a few days. If you we're stranded out at sea, you could even survive with salt-water enemas (directly drinking salt water would have far more negative effects) but in the belly of the Sarlaac, I doubt there would be any useful water whatsoever.
Also, why would this creature be referred to as "all-powerful"? I mean, assuming we've seen the extent of it's 'powers' during the movie, all you'd really have to do to avoid it's 'terrible wrath' would be to not step into it. I mean, at that point, does that make the window on any tenth floor "all-powerful"?
Just wonderin'...
I was wondering if this post would ever end ... appears even Mr. Green T was taken aback by your Star Wars reference.
An occasional commenter, but an everyday reader!
E-Bola -- thanks for the shout out! And please, whatever you do, don't tell my friends about my Star Wars faux pas -- I'll be kicked out of Geek Movie Club, and then who will I see the "The Watchmen" with 17 times?
Fett the Jet??
I think ND gets blown out today by NC.
In a less meaningful game, like Miss St, as always, as home dog on one of the best home fields in football at any level.
As for Bengals sacks allowed, I think the entire league went to school on last years Super Bowl.
Up until that date, the prevailing "wisdom" was to not let the great passing attacks beat you deep, try to contain them by playing prevent in nickle and dime package and hope they would make a mistake along the way.
Teams were afraid to blitz and give up the big play.
Consequently, Palmer, P Manning, Rivers, Brees, D Anderson would pick you apart all day, using up some clock but scoring anyway.
AGSB, After Giants Super Bowl, the copy cat coaches league all realized that the best way to beat another QB, especially when they are playing wide open in a 3 wide set, which many of these teams do, is to RUSH THE PASSER, BLITZ, BLITZ BLITZ.
For every big play allowed, you will also make some big plays and create turnovers, which is better than sitting back and being picked apart all day, especially mentally for a defensive players that for most part are hard wired in attack mentality.
Oh yeah, you hit the QB and guess what, they get banged up, and some, not used to being rushed, may get shell shocked and make mistakes.
Of course, you can not blitz every play, and you must still disguise them well, but the down stats for many of these QB's are attributable to the change in defensive philospophy.
Erik - Will Coles play on Sunday? I saw he partially practiced on Friday and he's listed as questionable.
J., Coles has been listed as questionable all season (been limited in practice too all year). The questionable listing is just one of those things Mangini likes to do. Unless there's some kind of strange event today, he'll play.
Mr. Green T, I believe that's the shortest response you've ever had here. Even Glauber, who apparently has nothing else to do, took notice.
Jay $, that vid is hilarious. Nice suggestion.
Darrell, you put way too much thought into that
R in CT, anytime...
Squishthefish, one day you have to explain to me how you pick your respective games...Louisiana Lafayette and N.Texas??
And, just randomly, Texas isn't playing any defense right now against OU, which is just fine with me from picks standpoint.
hey, leave my defense alone! im still going to pander to the BCS voters at the end of the year anyway, so whats the difference?
Mack! Thanks for stopping by in-game. Nice third quarter there. I think you might just pull this one out. Good for you, not as much for me...
Does anyone get more calls, even on the road, than ND?
No way that game should have been close.
Wayne 80, that overturn on the UNC deep ball toward the end might have been the worst replay decision I've ever seen, college or pro. The officials did get it right on that last ND play, though. Overall, I thought the officiating in the Texas/Oklahoma game was worse.
LooksLooks like you'll be 1-2 again this week. I ended up 2-1 in my games of the "weak". Tulsa crapped the bed against SMU. But Ball St held on to cover against W. Kentucky 24-7. And Laffey manhandled what may be the worse college football program ever N. Texas by 59-30.
Anyone can (try to) pick the big ones, and hell a 53% success rate will get you into almost every paper in the country. But, and I am still working on proving this, the lower tier conferences are where you can find some of the more lopsided matchups as the season progresses. All the big conferences setup their early season matchups against these teams. Almost all take a beating, but there are a handful that I would say are decent, that play against these punching bags in conference. I'm just trying to find the best matchups out there. Surprising the amount of info you can find on this here inerntet.
Enjoy the game on Sunday. Hopefully you can wrap up your paper writing duties by the start of the third quarter. Jets in a laugher???!!!! I know better than that, Jets 28-Bengals 23.
E- Sour grapes having lost the cover, I admit. A bunch of mysterous calls before that one too.
You could juse see them trying to figure out a way to give the Irish the ball at the 7 for one more play, but logic prevailed. There were four guys in the replay booth upstairs, yelling at each other.
Who are those guys? Logically, should be one official, correct?
Irish have been getting all the calls for years, you think by now I would learn.
Do you know how many penalties were called on NC?
Can not find the penalty stats in the NCAA box scores, and of course the articles barely mention them rather praising Claussen for the almost comeback.
Wayne 80, yes, in college it is one replay official who first buzzes the ref downstairs to tell him the play is being reviewed and then they go from there. Again, the overturn on the UNC long pass on third down was the worst - period - I've ever seen. Anyway, your penalty question, ND was penalized four times, UNC seven. It's on the right hand side of the "box score" icon on espn.com for future reference. Enjoy today's game!