Tonight was supposed to kick off the make-or-break weekend.
Louisville vs. West Virginia
Just 10 weeks ago this was a battle of Top 10 teams. Much like it was last year when No. 5 Louisville topped No. 3 West Virginia 44-34 in a game that had over 1,000 total yards.
We were waiting all season for the last two Big East Champions to play each other. So what happened?
Well, WVU turned the ball over 423 times against South Florida and Louisville didn’t play defense almost every time out this season.
Should be an easy game to predict, right? West Virginia has climbed back into the Top 10 and Louisville has one win to brag about – over Cincinnati.
Let’s see how easy.
West Virginia has the No. 4 defense in the country. And the Mountaineers are pretty balanced on that side of the ball, both in the Top 15 at stopping the pass and run.
Well, that could be because their offense is very run oriented so their defense sits on the bench much of the game because of clock management, right? Maybe. WVU is No. 23 in the country in T.O.P. Not bad at all.
And Louisville? Well, we alluded to how ugly their defense is. Maybe the unit is on the field a whole lot? Not so much. The offense is one of the country’s best and the Cards are No. 7 in time of possession. The defense is just bad.
Edge: Clearly WVU.
On offense both teams excel. Despite generally having an time of possession edge, WVU doesn’t run a ton of plays on offense (about 70). Credit that to the rushing attack that keeps the clock moving in between plays. Louisville averages about 77 per game and they love to wing it around the field. Houston runs about 83 per game, that’s a whole lot. Just a little FYI.
Generally I like an offense that has a command of the run over the pass, but Pat White is capable enough to put the offense on his arm if need be. As for Brian Brohm, he’s shown me enough and the numbers prove he’s the general of a fantastic offense.
Edge: Even
As for special teams, both teams are pretty solid. UL’s Arthur Carmody and WVU’s Pat McAffe are both kickers who can get the job done. Carmody won the Groza award last year. Both teams take really good care of the ball (well, WVU is fine it’s not playing South Florida). So I’ll say all is even here.
Now, the game is at home on a Thursday night. I’ve been to Mountaineer Stadium (never at night, but it was pretty tough during the day). So that only helps a team with the Xs and Os advantages.
As for motivation? Well, WVU has the conference championship and BCS in its sights. Louisville does not. I’m actually shocked that the Cards lost to Syracuse because it’s going to keep them from wining the conference, even if they win out. However, UL is still not bowl eligible and is not interested in playing in Saskatchewan in late December, so there’s stuff to play for on its sideline as well.
You have to think that WVU will win this game, even taking into account the madness that has been the 2007 season (and Big East, for that matter). About that 17-point spread…that’s the tricky part. I don’t think it’ll be close, but I think Louisville will cover.
34-23, West Virginia
Comments (2)
Adam, If you want to watch the key to this game IMHO, it's when WVU has the ball in obvious passing situations.
Darius Raynaud, is a beast, and with Wes Lyons and Dorrell Jalloh WVU has an outstanding receiving corps. However pat White needs the time to get them the ball.
The Offensive Line is solid, but the weakest link is at the point of attack, the center, Mike Dent.
Mike has a real problem getting shotgun snaps back to Pat White in those situations and Louisvilles Willie Williams, while no Amobi Okoye, can cause a lot of trouble from the NT position.
Hope ya'll are watching this game..it's been a great one so far!