By Adam Abramson
Two weeks ago, I made the prediction that Michigan would win a national title by 2011, something I'm sticking to.
OK, so it's not the biggest limb in the world, but I feel it's sturdy because Rich Rodriguez is taking little time in making an impact up in Ann Arbor.
It'd take a near miracle to win it this season, but the light is already shining for the future.
The high school class of 2009 has yet to finish its junior year, but Rodriguez has already locked up two zone read prototype quarterbacks, and could possibly add a third to the fold.
Texas product Shavodrick Beaver and Virginia native Kevin Newsome are two of the top 2009 prospects at the quarterback position. Barely able to operate a motor vehicle, both are built as big, if not bigger, than West Virginia quarterback Pat White.
And rumors are swirling that Michigan prep product Keith Nichol could return to his home state after his Oklahoma experiment was foiled by Sam Bradford. Nichol was one of the top dual-threat prospects in the class of 2007. Scouts noted Nichol's strengths as vision and running ability. Hello spread offense.
Nichol hasn't decided on his next stop yet, but if it's Ann Arbor, we could have a log jam.
But there's something that these guys need to remember, as quarterbacks.
Based on recent history, here's what these guys can expect when they get to Michigan.
(All numbers are rank in the country in stated category)
Rushing Offense | ||
| Year | West Virginia | Michigan |
| 2002 | 2 | 59 |
| 2003 | 13 | 38 |
| 2004 | 7 | 61 |
| 2005 | 4 | 44 |
| 2006 | 2 | 21 |
| 2007 | 3 | 47 |
| Average | 5.17 | 45 |
Passing Offense | ||
| Year | West Virginia | Michigan |
| 2002 | 108 | 44 |
| 2003 | 105 | 22 |
| 2004 | 104 | 45 |
| 2005 | 115 | 61 |
| 2006 | 100 | 64 |
| 2007 | 114 | 61 |
| Average | 107.7 | 49.5 |
And Pat White is already being projected as a wide receiver.
Food for thought, if you're ready to showcase your arm.
But if you're in it for the championship, might be worth slugging it out with those other guys.
Comments (10)
Adam, maybe I'm just being obtuse, but aren't those statistics 180 degrees off?
The way I read them, you seem to be showing that WVU was more of a passing team than Michigan and that Michigan was more of a running team than WVU in recent years. That can't be right. Can it?
BNG--I should make it clear that those numbers are rank in the country.
This isn't a slight to either program, nor Pat White. It's just pointing out what everyone should already know -- if you're a QB for RR, you're going to spearheading a rushing attack.
Thanks Adam, that makes it much more clear!
And you're right. The Rodriguez/McGee offense is all is all about the bubble screen. Very one dimensional in that respect. They DO NOT stretch the field. When they came across good defensive coordinators who knew how to defend the bubble screen they lost. (See also: South Florida, Pitt)
I know it sounds like sour grapes coming from a mountaineer fan, but Rodriguez is far to stubborn to change. he'll stick with a losing strategy all the way to the bitter end. Good luck to him runing the spread in the Mid Western winters.
When Shaun King ran this offense, he threw for almost 4000 yards and 40? TD's. Pat White is being projected as a WR at the next level why? Because he is too small and lacks the armstrength to get the ball downfield in a hurry? I would think that if RR has a QB able to get it downfield on a rope, then it is going downfield on a rope. Not to say he won't still be a 60/40 run guy, because that is what drives the offense. But if he has the QB to get 50 at a clip through the air, he will.
eerie dude,
The problem with your logic is that when Rodriguez and McGee had backup QB Jarrett Brown in (When Pat White went down with an injury) they still went for the bubble screen. And there's no question that Jarrett Brown has the arm strength to throw the ball deep.
Rodriguez and McGee don't believe in the deep game. They believe that the risk : reward ratio just doesn't justify the strategy.
No way Michigan gets more than 7 wins this year. After that, who knows.
Umm, another problem is the fact that rich rod coached other places than WVU... Look at his clemson, tulane and glenville state offenses. He threw the ball upwards of 70% of the time at glenville where he invented the spread option. He was 50/50 at Clemson and Tulane. It's about what weapons he has at his disposal. Pat white is a great athlete with a bad arm - he also had Slaton and Devine at his disposal. That explains why the he rushed so much with them.
Bob,
Your stats are flawed. Even if they were correct (Which they're not) what Coach Fraud did as head coach at DII schools, or as an assistant at other programs is totally irrelevant to the discussion.
There's a reason WVU played their best game of the season last year AFTER coach Fraud resigned.
Mountaineer quarterback Pat White triggered their offensive barrage with 176 yards through the air and 150 yards on the ground against Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl.
Sounds like a QB that was bottled up by a stifling offensive system more than a QB with a bad arm.
I was going to write another post about this, but I won't. I'll just write here.
The zone read is a RUN-FIRST offense. If you have a quarterback who can run, like the ones Rodriguez is recruiting, chances are Michigan's offense will be run-based.
The zone read gives you a fraction of a second to make a decision. There's no five-step, four-second drop so a receiver can run a hitch-and-go.
Now, if RR wants to deviate from the zone read, it's a whole new ball game. But it's been his bread-and-butter for a long time.
The bottom line is this: Michigan's offense will succeed because it's a proven system under RR and he's going to recruit top talent in Ann Arbor.
The point of this post was to point out that these quarterbacks should know what they're getting themselves into. Kevin Newsome is a self-proclaimed pro style quarterback ... who can run. At Michigan, he'll LIKELY be a zone read quarterback ... who can pass.
Are you sealing your fate as a quarterback by running this offense? No. Talk to NFL Rookie of the Year Vince Young and Shaun King, as eerie pointed out.
And as for RR's years at Clemson, his first year there he had a guy with cement in his cleats start 7 games. His second year he had Woodrow Dantzler, who had the same number of passing attempts as Pat White, so the offense wasn't that much different.
Excellent Post Adam!
The only thing I'll take exception to is the characterization of the 1998 Tulane Offense as a "Spread Offense". It was not. Although you aren't the only one I've seen make this statement (Not by a longshot)
In 1998 Tulane was clearly Tommy Bowdens team. It was NOT a Rich Rodriguez "Spread Offense"
Here are Shaun Kings numbers in 1998:
1998 Season...
Set an NCAA season-record with a 183.3 passing efficiency rating, topping the old mark of 178.8 by Danny Wuerffel of Florida in 1995...
Ranked sixth in the nation in total offense, averaging 342.2 yards-per-game ...
Finished the season with a string of 166 consecutive passes without an interception...
Became the first player in NCAA Division 1-A history to throw for over 3000 yards & rush for over 500 yards in the same season...
Completed 223 of 328 passes (68.0%) for 3232 yards, 36 touchdowns & only six interceptions breaking the old school season-records of 63.4-percentage completion by Roch Hontas in 1977, 2613 yards by Deron Smith in 1989 & his own Tulane mark of 24 scores in 1997...
Carried 140 times for 532 yards (3.8 avg.) & 10 touchdowns...His 3742 yards in total offense & 46 touchdowns responsible for established Green Wave season-records.
Tulane in 1998 was not a "Zone Read" Run first offense.
All the specious entries above are for naught. The bottom line is, R. R. will be looking for a new job in five years after five straight losses to the Buckeyes. AND, Dats Da Fact Jack!