On the Islanders Beat

For many NHL teams, including the Islanders, the most crucial part of the 2007-08 season begins Sunday at noon when the free agent market opens and the process of a roster makeover begins. It should only take a day or two for Ryan Smyth to sift through his offers and decide where to spend the rest of his career.

Losing Smyth obviously would be a major blow to the efforts of general manager Garth Snow and coach Ted Nolan to restore the credibility of the Isles as a franchise that is serious about winning. But even if they convince Smyth to stay, they have a lot of other big holes to fill on a roster that is likely to bear little resemblance to last season’s eighth-place finisher in the Eastern Conference.

Having bought out top center Alexei Yashin and virtually kissed top scorer Jason Blake goodbye, there’s also a strong possibility they will part ways with top-scoring defenseman Tom Poti, resurgent forward Viktor Kozlov and fourth-line enforcer Arron Asham. They previously severed ties with forwards Richard Zednik and Randy Robitaille, defenseman Sean Hill and goaltender Mike Dunham, and they failed to make a qualifying offer to restricted free agent forward Andy Hilbert, although he still might be signed later. Free agent Chris Simon remains unsigned, but he, too, still is in the picture.

For those keeping score at home, that’s 12 of the top 20 regulars from the roster in early March who might not be back. The Isles did make qualifying offers to restricted free agents Trent Hunter and Chris Campoli, and they are expected to return. Hunter’s agent, Brad Devine, said it’s likely they will file for arbitration on Thursday to protect his client’s rights, but even if they go all the way to a hearing to decide Hunter’s salary, that wouldn’t be any reflection of bad feeling between management and Hunter, who is a key part of the team.

“Trent really believes in being an Islander, and he’s comfortable with the GM and the coach,” Devine said recently. “It’s just a matter of finding a number we both can agree on.”

Kozlov’s agent, Paul Theofanus, did not return Newsday’s call, but he previously rejected the Islanders’ one-year contact offer in the vicinity of $1.5 million. Coming off a career season in which he scored 25 goals and 51 points, it’s possible Kozlov will get a multi-year deal from Florida averaging more than $2 million per season. Although Kozlov often has fallen short of his potential throughout his career, his move from left wing to center at the end of last season paid dividends, and retaining him could have provided a measure of insurance at the position where the Islanders need the most help.

But there are questions about how effective Kozlov would be with best friend Yashin gone from a roster that includes no other Russians. It seems Nolan and Snow are trending toward building a roster emphasizing a North American style of play with just a sprinkling of Europeans.

Asham, who could be considered the middleweight champion of the NHL, fits the mold with his toughness, but apparently, he wasn’t consistent enough to merit the raise he is seeking over last season’s $950,000 salary. “The Islanders are aware that, should Arron enter the free-agent market, he will be highly coveted,” said Art Breeze, who represents Asham. “Few players bring his skill with toughness, character, intensity and team play. Arron prefers to remain an Islander. He very much likes his teammates, Long Island, the fans, the coach and the management staff.”

Breeze declined to discuss details of the deal Asham is seeking. It’s possible Asham could return, but it would have to be on closer to the Islanders’ terms, and it might depend to some extent on how many younger players they want to blend into the roster.

I’ll save the list of potential Islanders targets in the free agent market for a story in Sunday’s Newsday. But including only those players under contract plus restricted free agents who have received qualifying offers, here’s how the Isles’ roster looks at the moment:

Left wing – Jeff Tambellini, Sean Bergenheim.

Center – Mike Sillinger, Shawn Bates, Richard Park, Frans Nielsen.

Right wing – Trent Hunter, Miroslav Satan.

Defense – Brendan Witt, Radek Martinek, Marc-Andre Bergeron, Freddy Meyer, Bruno Gervais, Chris Campoli.

Goaltender – Rick DiPietro, Wade Dubielewicz.

Top prospects – (Forwards) Sean Bentivoglio, Blake Comeau, Jeremy Colliton, Petteri Nokelainen; (Defense) Dustin Kohn, Andrew McDonald, Drew Fata.

Snow has his work cut out for him to find additional scoring up front as well as more experience and toughness on defense. If he misses out on some of the big names, maybe Snow can build a balanced roster comparable to last season’s surprisingly successful performance.

If NHL free agency were a game of Texas Hold ‘Em, we’d be at the stage where everybody is peeking at their hole cards, checking the flop and calculating the odds of drawing an inside straight. He who bluffs best usually wins.

Ryan Smyth’s agent Don Meehan and Islanders general manager Garth Snow talked on Monday and are planning to talk again today, Meehan said last night. The question is whether Meehan and Smyth are using the Islanders to build the pot or whether there is genuine interest in signing up for the long haul on the Island, which probably was among the last places Smyth ever imagined himself going before the trade on Feb. 27.

“We’re having ongoing discussions,” Meehan said yesterday. “Garth is well-intentioned. We’re having good discussions, but it’s complex.”

Asked if there is any possibility Smyth would sign with the Isles before the free agent market opens on Sunday, Meehan didn’t even look at his cards before saying. “It’s too early to tell.”

Have the Islanders made a firm offer? “I won’t discuss negotiations,” Meehan said.

Snow isn’t discussing negotiations either. The Islanders have been scrupulous in trying to avoid any false steps in their talks with Smyth. Snow rolled the dice big-time in February and didn’t see a payoff because of concussions that kept goaltender Rick DiPietro out of the lineup and likely cost the Isles a shot at sixth in the Eastern Conference and a shot at an Atlanta team that they could have beaten in the first round.

Now, Snow and owner Charles Wang are trying to avoid crapping out in July. If they don’t get Smyth’s name on the dotted line of a long-term contract, then, they have suffered a major loss by any objective standard. The certified NHL experts will say they sacrificed far too much to rent Smyth – two first-round prospects and a first-round pick.

Personally, I found it refreshing that they took such a risk after so many years of Islanders management talking about landing the big one but never actually doing it. Then, they backed it up with the bold stroke of cutting ties with Alexei Yashin to open the captaincy for Smyth. There’s a danger they will have nothing to show for those moves except the bill for Yashin’s $17.63 million buyout, but they made the moves necessary to show what’s left of their fan base that they are serious about winning.

Smyth faces a real challenge to all his instincts. I don’t think Calgary can afford him, and I would be stunned if the ex-Oiler went there, anyway. But Captain Canada in Toronto? Yeah, that fits. How many times would he appear on “Hockey Night in Canada?” Isles fans are passionate, but the atmosphere simply isn’t the same as in Canada.

Is Smyth prepared to join coach Ted Nolan in attempting to rekindle the flame that once burned so brightly on Long Island? That’s a tough one.

If money talks, then, the Islanders will be in it. One knowledgeable NHL source said Smyth asked for $5.5 million per year for five years, and the Oilers offered $5.4 million plus a skybox to make up the difference. Maybe Smyth was ready to leave, knowing he could get $6 million or more somewhere else.

The Islanders can set the bar by offering $30 million over five years, but if that’s not good enough to sign Smyth by July 1, they should wait to see what the market price is for a 31-year-old player with a lot of mileage and then decide if he’s worth it. There’s no doubt about Smyth’s leadership ability and hockey smarts, but how long will his body hold up?

The showdown comes Sunday when everybody turns over all their cards.

POTI WILL TEST MARKET: At $2.75 million, some thought the Islanders overpaid for defenseman Tom Poti last season. Then he led the team in ice time and assists. After Montreal signed Andrei Markov to a four-year deal averaging $5.75 million and Philadelphia signed Kimmo Timonen to a six-year deal averaging $6.3 million, Poti is virtually obligated to see what the market will bear in his case.

“We’re trying to find a number that works for both sides,” said Rick Curran, Poti’s agent. “But the market is in flex now. Neither side is closing the door to the possibility of reaching an agreement. I’m not putting a time frame on it. We’re both willing to wait and see how the market unfolds…the door is wide-open to the Islanders.”

There’s no question Poti enjoyed last season with the Isles, and he expressed a desire to return when the season ended. Maybe the contracts for Markov and Timonen were aberrations, but if Poti’s price goes much beyond $3.5 million per season, the Isles might have yet another job opening to fill.

ISLES QUALIFIERS: As expected, the Islanders have made qualifying offers to restricted free agents Trent Hunter and Chris Campoli. Andy Hilbert did not receive a qualifying offer and will become unrestricted on July 1. But the Islanders have not cut ties with him and still might sign Hilbert later.

Who would benefit if the Islanders traded the right to negotiate with free agent Ryan Smyth to Toronto in return for defenseman Bryan McCabe and the remaining four years of his contract valued at $28.75 million? Do you think that might help the Maple Leafs just a little bit, you know, by clearing out McCabe’s money to pay Smyth?

No wonder rumors of McCabe returning to the Isles and the notion of Islanders general manager Garth Snow shopping Smyth’s rights take on a life of their own, as they did again Friday in a TSN report. Is it possible the Leafs themselves are pushing that story as an expression of their interest (premature though it may be before July 1) in Smyth?

Yes, Toronto asked Snow for the opportunity to negotiate with Smyth. Snow said no. That’s not “shopping,” unless that’s how you define Snow protecting the Islanders’ negotiating interests. Smyth’s agent, Don Meehan, a real pro, would have notified Snow by now if Smyth had no interest in the Islanders. That hasn’t happened. Smyth and Meehan are listening to the Islanders if only because they know their most lucrative offer might come from owner Charles Wang when the NHL free agent market opens on July 1.

After investing former first-round picks Robert Nilsson and Ryan O’Marra plus this year’s first-round choice (which could have been Alexei Cherepanov) to rent Smyth, the Islanders aren’t about to back off now. They will go all-out to sign Smyth, who represents everything coach Ted Nolan values. Wang reinforced the Islanders’ desire for new leadership when he bought out the contract of former captain Alexei Yashin for $17.63 million.

The Isles will be in the Ryan Smyth sweepstakes until they hear him say they’re not in it. They might even surprise all the media outlets and hockey blogs that have been flogging the notion they have no chance to sign Smyth.

Jason Blake is a different story. If someone wants to offer Snow a decent pick in the remaining rounds of the draft to negotiate with Blake, it’s possible he would make that deal. Blake and the Islanders have dramatically different views of the value of a 40-goal scorer who turns 34 years old on September 2.

Blake turned down the Isles’ latest offer of a three-year deal for $10 million. In the current environment, he might easily get $4 million a year or more from another team. Scott Hartnell is considerably younger than Blake, but the six-year deal worth $25.2 million that he received from Philadelphia certainly didn’t encourage Blake to lower his asking price.

“When players get pretty good money, people will look and say that being a 40-goal scorer in today’s NHL is pretty significant,” said Neil Sheehy, Blake’s agent.

Sheehy said Blake hasn’t put his Long Island house on the market yet because he doesn’t want to close any doors. But the financial gulf between him and the Islanders suggests the “For Sale” sign will go up soon enough.

Defenseman Tom Poti, the Islanders’ next most prominent UFA, also might have been influenced the six-year deal worth $37.8 million that the Flyers lavished on defenseman Kimmo Timonen. Like Smyth, it’s in Poti’s interest to see what offers arrive on July 1. Snow wants Poti back, but at the right price.

Two Islanders free agents who won’t return are defenseman Sean Hill, who was suspended for using performance-enhancing substances before Game 5 of the Islanders’ first-round playoff elimination at Buffalo, and Richard Zednik, who was acquired for a second-round pick two days before the trade deadline but had to leave the team for the last two weeks of the regular season because of family problems before returning for the playoffs. Forward Chris Simon, who still must serve five more games to complete his suspension for hitting Ryan Hollweg in the face with his stick, is a good bet to return.

Snow refuses to discuss free agent prospects before the July 1 opening of the market, but the Islanders’ needs are obvious. It’s likely they will put in a bid for Buffalo’s Chris Drury along with a multitude of other teams. They also need a defenseman but want someone with speed, which would eliminate any deal for Phoenix’s Nick Boynton, who has been linked with the Isles in some speculation.

The Islanders have lots of other holes to fill, but after what happened in the first round of the NHL draft, it would seem more important than ever for Snow to get Smyth’s name on a contract. Once the highly skilled Cherepanov, who was named best forward at the world junior championships in Russia, started falling, it was obvious he wasn’t going to stop until he reached the Rangers at No. 17.

With their resources, they don’t have to worry about the cost of bringing Cherepanov over from Omsk despite the lack of a transfer agreement with the Russian federation. If the Islanders hadn’t included their first-round pick in the Smyth trade, they would have been in position to grab Cherepanov at No. 15.

Whether they would have or not, I don’t know. There was no point in discussing first-round prospects with Snow since the Islanders don’t have a pick until No. 62 at the start of the third round. Maybe they would have passed, too, citing Cherepanov’s inconsistency, especially coming on the heels of their decision to buy out Yashin, another highly skilled Russian whose determination ebbed and flowed. Or maybe they would have grabbed the goal scorer to prevent the Rangers from getting him. We’ll never know.

BLOGGER’S NOTE: I understand the impatience of many readers with the extended time between blogs in the offseason. But as I said in the season-ending entry on April 27, my work time necessarily must be limited because of the need to use up literally months of comp time accumulated over several years. The more time I take off between seasons, the less chance I will be forced to take time off during the season when a backup would cover the beat. For now, coverage must be limited to major events, such as the draft, and important free-agent signings. The funny thing is you wouldn’t believe how much time I spend at the computer or on the phone on “comp time.” Just in case.

From a distance, I always admired the skills Alexei Yashin displayed early in his career with Ottawa. The numbers he put up were equally nice to look at if he was on your fantasy team. And when I arrived in Yarmouth for my first Islanders training camp, Yashin was one of two players who made a point of going out of their way to meet the new beat writer.

As much as it pained Yashin to discuss the negative perception of him that many had come to hold, he was unfailingly polite about answering the tough questions I put to him, and he seemed as sincere in his desire to succeed as he was meticulous about the care and preparation of his hockey sticks.

When the season began, I think he had a pretty clear understanding that it might be his last go-round with the Islanders if he didn’t respond to Ted Nolan’s coaching, and his hot start was a measure of his effort. When he banged knees with Washington’s Mark Bradley and missed eight games, the Isles faltered. I know Yashin came back before he really felt ready because he wanted to show his dedication to the team.

The night before his return, we spoke in the press box at Pittsburgh, and he talked about getting autographed sticks from the three players he admired most – Wayne Gretzky, Mark Messier and Mario Lemieux. I have no doubt the injury affected Yashin when he returned, but when his play failed to improve, it wasn’t hard to sense the disappointment among his teammates, many of whom were playing with injuries no one knew about.

When Nolan finally told Yashin to go on the injured list and not return until he was 100 percent, the rest of the Isles took the cue and produced a 10-2-4 record without their captain. Yashin’s Islanders career effectively was over at that point within the locker room. It apparently took a little longer in the board room for owner Charles Wang to agree, but the decision to buy out the remaining four years of Yashin’s contract was the right one for both parties.

Simply giving up the “C” wouldn’t have been enough. If he remained on the team, it would have been an awkward situation in which everyone else worked around him. Yashin needed a clean break, too, so that he could take his wrist shot and his passing skills to another team that could use him in a secondary role without placing any great demands on him for leadership.

The difference being that he would be paid to play a secondary role rather than collecting the kind of check reserved for the franchise player. That was the maddening thing about Yashin. He felt it was unfair to equate expectations with the size of the paycheck. But that’s what it’s about in pro sports. Certainly, Gretzky, Messier and Lemieux understood that and embraced it in a way that obviously wasn't in Yashin's nature to do.

Yashin insisted it doesn’t matter who scores as long as the team wins. And that’s true. But it does matter who really wants to score. It matters who really wants to get the job done. And in hockey, more than any other sport, it especially matters that the guy who wears the “C” shows he’s willing to do whatever it takes to help his team win. In that sense, Yashin seemed disconnected from the team he was supposed to lead. It felt like his teammates didn’t see what they needed to see from him, so, they largely ignored him.

In the 15 regular-season games that Yashin and Ryan Smyth played together, Yashin had 5 goals and 7 assists for 12 points compared to 4 goals, 9 assists and 13 points by Smyth. The numbers virtually were the same, but you got the feeling that Yashin was satisfied with that and Smyth was frustrated that he couldn’t do more while playing on a bad leg. When it comes to playing both ends of the ice and special teams, there is no comparison. Smyth isn’t as pretty, but he’s a whole lot more effective.

Most likely, Smyth will be unsigned on July 1 in order to find out what all his options are as a free agent. Maybe the Islanders will overpay if they succeed in signing him, and his numbers might not be any better than what Yashin provided as an Islander. But his leadership, effort and intangible qualities would have a real value that would be worthy of the “C,” and the leadership question in the locker room would be answered once and for all.

ISLES NOTES – As many avid readers already have seen via Internet reports, Kyle Okposo, the Islanders’ No. 1 pick in 2006, has decided to return to the University of Minnesota for his sophomore season rather than turn pro. If there was one prospect in the organization that general manager Garth Snow absolutely wasn’t going to trade, it was Okposo. But at the same time, Snow and his advisors don’t want to rush a player who started brilliantly with the Golden Gophers but showed signs of wear after the world junior championships and when his role changed at Minnesota to make him more of a set-up man. Another season of top-level college hockey will help Okposo. If he had turned pro now, he likely would have spent most of next season in Bridgeport. But if he dominates next season at the college level, then, he might be ready to jump straight to the NHL in another year.

No doubt, many Islanders fans are looking forward to adding 2002 first-round pick Sean Bergenheim to the lineup following his year in the Swedish Elite League, where he had 33 points in 36 games and 80 penalty minutes. Hate to say it, but there’s a chance this summer could be a replay of last summer’s negotiations standoff. In fact, there are indications the dispute will pick up exactly where it left off with both sides entrenched in their positions. Bergenheim and Snow both have stubborn streaks, and “compromise” might not be in their vocabulary…On a more positive note, one NHL source said the Isles and defenseman Tom Poti are in the process of negotiating a multi-year contract. Poti led the Isles with average ice time of 25:42 and with a career-high 38 assists, and he found a comfort level on the Island after his rough experience with the Rangers.