Diehard Islanders fans all can cite the litany of draft day foibles during the Mike Milbury regime that ultimately cost the franchise a treasure trove of talent that could have produced a serious Stanley Cup contender. Now, it’s Garth Snow’s turn on the hot seat.
He got off light in his first draft last summer because the Isles didn’t have a pick until the third round, when he went for diminutive puck-moving defenseman Mark Katic. This time around, Snow has the No. 5 overall pick right in the thick of a draft front-loaded with exciting talent.
Check all the scouting services and the hockey media ratings, and there is very little disagreement that the top six players who make this draft special start with center Steve Stamkos and include defensemen Drew Doughty, Zach Bogosian, Alex Pietrangelo and Luke Schenn plus Russian winger Nikita Filatov. To a certain extent, the four teams in front of the Islanders – Tampa Bay, Los Angeles, Atlanta and St. Louis – will help make Snow’s decision for him.
Stamkos will go to Tampa Bay, and the next two picks are expected to be Doughty and Bogosian, although the order is open to debate. St. Louis GM John Davidson could take Filatov but is thought to be leaning toward defense. In most estimates, Snow figures to be choosing between Filatov and either Pietrangelo or Schenn.
Let’s play armchair quarterback and consider the scenarios if Snow exercises the fifth pick rather than trading up or down. Despite Pietrangelo’s impressive offensive ability and overwhelming plus-69 rating over his past two junior seasons, he missed the playoffs with an illness and seems to have fallen behind Doughty and Bogosian. Some believe St. Louis might even take Schenn ahead of Pietrangelo.
If that happens and Pietrangelo is available for the Islanders, that would be the safest pick Snow could make because he’d be getting the offensive defenseman the team needs to quarterback the power play and initiate the offense. But if the Blues grab him, then, the choice is between Filatov, the sexy sniper the Isles desperately need, or Schenn, the defensive stopper who could make life a whole lot easier on goaltender Rick DiPietro, especially because he also can make the first pass out of the defensive zone.
If it’s a choice between the sizzle and the steak, then it’s not hard to imagine Islanders owner Charles Wang pleading with (ordering maybe?) Snow to get him a scorer who sells tickets. We’re talking about a team that ranked 29th in goals last season, and if there’s one thing this draft has in abundance, it’s quality defensemen. With two picks in each of the second and third rounds, Snow can put together a package to get a solid defenseman late in the first round. If Filatov winds up filling the net for another team, he will join the long list of goal scorers who got away, and Snow never will hear the end of it.
It’s harder to quantify the difference Schenn would make over the next rugged defenseman the Isles could grab a little lower, and maybe that would make it a little easier to live with if Snow takes Filatov and he doesn’t pan out. On the other hand, no one wins the Cup without a quality defense. As great as Detroit’s offense might be, it was the Red Wings’ defense that won the Cup this spring by making it difficult for Pittsburgh stars Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Marian Hossa and the rest of the Penguins to even get many shots on goal.
In a perfect world, the Islanders could solve that problem by trading up with Los Angeles for the second pick to take Bogosian, who might have the most impressive combination of scoring abililty, booming slapshot and toughness of all the top defensemen. The Hockey News projected such a trade with the Islanders giving up one of their extra picks in the second and fifth rounds. Snow once was teammates with Los Angeles assistant GM Ron Hextall, and the Kings are thought to have an interest in Filatov. Say the Kings draft Bogosian, wait to make sure the Isles get Filatov and then make the swap. Everybody’s happy.
But if the Islanders trade, the odds would seem to favor a downward move. It would be risky to trade away from the top six players, but if they’re not sold on Filatov or Schenn, it’s possible. No. 7 Toronto, No. 11 Chicago and No. 12 Anaheim have indicated an interest in moving up. In that case, Snow likely would demand a top young veteran or a prospect as the price to switch places.
The Maple Leafs still are trying to unload the bloated contract of defenseman Bryan McCabe, who might be interested in returning to the Islanders. But that doesn’t fit with Snow’s youth movement and would be doing a huge favor for Toronto GM Cliff Fletcher. If the Leafs are serious about moving up, they’d have a much better chance by offering center Kyle Wellwood.
Should Snow trade down, it’s hard to see him going lower than 12th. If he drops into the 7-12 range, it brings forwards Colin Wilson, Mikkel Boedker and Cody Hodgson into play, but Snow said, “There’s still good a couple of good defensemen.” He likely was alluding to 6-7 Tyler Myers and Colten Teubert. All are solid players who would fill a need, and if Snow adds some young, NHL-proven building blocks in the process, it’s a defensible move. You know, provided Filatov or Schenn or Pietrangelo don’t turn into superstars.
One thing Snow won’t do is consider trading the No. 5 pick for a first line-caliber center, such as Florida’s Ollie Jokinen ( a former Isle who got away) or San Jose’s Patrick Marleau, both of whom are believed to be available. He can’t talk about specific players from other teams, but Snow said, “It would be highly unlikely that we would move that pick for an older player that may only have one more year on his contract. I don’t see that happening.”
However, with 10 picks in seven rounds, including extra picks in the second, third, fifth and sixth rounds, Snow might not be done in Friday night’s first round after making the fifth pick. “If we saw a player we liked in mid-to-late first round,” Snow said, “having the two seconds and thirds enables us to make a pitch to try to get that pick if there’s a player who’s high on our chart.”
Unlike covering the NFL or NBA, where you have a chance to see many of the top college players on TV and form an opinion, I can’t pretend to know much more than I’ve read about the skills of the top juniors entering the NHL draft. The only one I’ve seen is Doughty, who did nothing remarkable in a game I watched while traveling in Canada.
But based on the conversations I’ve had about the top prospects and my view of the Islanders’ needs, I’d go for the sizzle if it proved impossible to trade up for Bogosian. If it’s a choice between Filatov and Schenn, I’d rather see Snow pick up the second-best forward in the draft. By all accounts, Filatov is highly skilled, works hard and is determined to get his NHL career underway as soon as possible.
If Snow trades down, again, I would go for Wilson, Boedker or Hodgson over a project like Myers. There are plenty of quality defensemen to choose from in the second and third rounds. The worst part about last season’s Islanders was the glaring lack of offensive skill. That has to change as soon as possible.
For those of you who haven’t yet submitted your advice to Garth Snow on the blog, you are invited to do so before 7 p.m. Friday night. In three years, we’ll look back and see how we did compared to the pros.
BLOG PREVIEW: I’ll be in Ottawa today for interviews with the top prospects and will provide regular updates on the blog during the course of the two-day draft.
CORRECTION: A headline in Sunday’s Sports section about the possibility of Alexei Yashin returning to the Islanders was incorrect. No Islanders official was quoted in the story about the team’s recent talks with Yashin’s agent.
Comments (41)
Greg, totally agree with everything you said ....looking forward to your updates
Only the Isles will find a way to screw this up?
For the first time in a while, I do feel that the right move will be made. Although Bogosian does sound enticing, and we could get him by moving up, I feel that I'd rather keep all of our picks in this deep draft and use them accordingly. The only trade I would make it packaging our two second round picks and a fifth in order to move into the late first round and grab another defensive prospect. By grabbing Filatov, we will atleast take the guy that everyone wants and see how he pans out. That way no one can ever look back and say "I told you so..." We are in a very good situation here, and this draft is truly crucial to the development of our hockey team. Dependent on how good the talent is, we could have a great team moving forward come the 2009-2010 team with some great youngsters.
filatov is170lbs. the ahl is loaded with skilled forwarsa who are too small to be successful in the nhl.
the games i saw on tv make me want doughty. he remins me of #5.
The kid in me is excited over the prospect of drafting one of the top 3 defensemen or perhaps an offensive dynamo in Filatov.
But the adult in me is depressed over the prospect the Isles will probably use the 5th pick to draft someone everyone else projected to go in the 4th round.
C'mon Snow...earn back some trust!
Also to "MadMike" from the previous thread. According to Yashin's agent, he would not be signing for an inexpensive contract. Add to that we already pay him 2.2 mil to stay away from the team and it doesn't make sense. Yashin is talented and has put up the points for the Isles. But he's also older, his work ethic is questionable, and he's disappeared when the Isles have needed him. Sometimes you have to cut ties and just move on.
yorangesleeves:
Filatov is small, but Patrick Kane is even smaller, would you take him? I would rather get Doughty or Bogosian, but I would be very happy to have Filatov here. All the reports I've read on him has mentioned a great work ethic, Isles need another player like that.
The scenario I like the best is trading the #5 and the extra picks from later in the draft to grab Bogosian. Everything I've read about this kid compares him to Rob Blake and he's an offensive defensemen to boot. The NHL draft is such a crapshoot, if you have a top pick you have to go for the high end talent. In the other scenarios I like Filatov for all of the reasons Greg stated or Colin Wilson. While I agree that the Isles need defensive help, they did draft a ton of defensemen in last year's draft and have the extra picks this year to do the same. I'm of the mindset that we need offense and Filatov, Wilson or even Bogosian would provide it. I just want a skilled player.
My prediction is that Filatov will go to LA, the Isles will end up making a trade with Toronto or someother team in the top 10 and grab either Wilson or Beach. I don't know why, but I have a feeling Snow likes Beach a lot, even though he has some negatives associated with him.
The one thing I hope Snow and the committee doesn't do is to trade out of the top 10 and trade for a veteran player. We have to stick to the plan and build through the draft. Looks like the roster this year could be comprised of lots of young players. Who knows, next year there will be two franchise players available (Hedman and Tavares).
I'd be perfectly fine with a trade-down...you talk about not seeing these guys on TV, but I watched Colin Wilson the vast majority of games he played, both for my alma mater and at the WJC (where he was tied for tournament lead in goals). If they can grab him along with a quality young player in a trade-down, I would consider that a win-win for the Islanders. Wilson has amazing hockey sense, a nose for the puck, and a Druryesque ability to score the big goal.
Before you start thinking I'm Wilson's brother or agent or something, I wouldn't mind trading up for a Bogosian either. However, with such great guys available next year, I'd prefer to stockpile assets and prepare to make a run with hopefully Hedman or Tavares next year.
One thing to watch, however: LA might pick Luke Schenn, who was Thomas Hickey's (last years 1st rounder for LA) defensive partner, 2nd overall. If that happens, Doughty or Bogosian will almost certainly fall to us, at which point sorry Wilson.
For the first time in a long time, I think they'll do the right thing this year, with no stupid trades. Let's get to it! Looking forward to seeing all the NIMBY's tomorrow.
I agree with you Nick.
If we stick with the number 5 pick, and FILATOV is available we grab him...If not we have 2 choices...grab PIETROANGELO or trade down and pick up more draft picks and a top prospect player from that team then grab WILSON...Stay away from BEACH, i dont like this kid at all...Already a few concussion...He will be the next Eric Lindros...I really DONT think we can SCREW this draft up...Its next to impossible, but i feel the only way we will screw this up, is if we draft a stay at home defensemen...Not that its really screwing up the draft, but i think our needs are more offense then defense, and with so many picks we can stock up on defensmen in the later rounds...I hope to GOD that SNOW sticks to his word and does not trade our 5th pick for a verteran scorer...
I wish i could be at the draft party, but i have to work till 9, so i wont even et to see the draft, I will have to DVR it....I will keep my fingers crossed all day...LETS GO ISLANDERS!@!!!
DO NOT TRADE DOWN. You have premier players in the top 6 picks. We have two picks in the second round to add depth.
Personally I want Filatov. His work ethic, leadership and incredible skills will make him a great compliment to Okposo. For those who worry about him being 170 lbs. He is 5'11" (same height as Crosby). He's only 18 years old. Give him a couple of years of conditioning and he'll reach around 190-195lbs. His size WILL NOT be a problem.
Still, I'd be more than thrilled to take any of the top three defensive prospects (especially Bogosian) but Filatov is the tonic for this team.
Trade up to get Bogosian! This guy is a franchise defenseman!
Just Take Filitov! If he is not there this team needs to consider a trade down with so many holes on this team and the organization's depth - see what kind of Package of young players & draft picks you can get in a trade down
filatov is a game changer, he will be long gone
sucks for us
Filatov is definitely a wild card in terms of when he will be drafted. If the Isles end up with him they should start looking for a big power forward. Isles are pretty small and not very physical up front. Though its certainly a long shot, someone like Malone would be a nice addition to create some space for the likes of Filatov, Comrie, Comeau, Tambellini.
That being said I think the Rangers will probably get Malone as they are closer to contending and have been doing well in their free agent targetting. So, anyone know of someone in the later rounds of the draft who fits this description? It won't happen, but if we get Filatov I would love to grab Beach in a later round.
Healy, it is pretty much a foregone conclusion that the Columbus Blue Jackets will sign Malone. He wants to stay close to home. Reports out of Pitssburgh already have him pretty much there.
hey all, long time no see....idk if anyone has brought this up, but word on several sites (and apparently a toronto newspaper as per the islanders writer on hockeybuzz) is that theres a deal being discussed heres how it goes down (apparently, and im sorry again if its already been posted))
To: NYI
-McCabe
-1st round pick (#7)
To: TOR
-1st round pick (#5)
-Tambellini
-Gervais
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ABSOLUTELY NO imo.....
First of all, why would we take TOR off the hook for McCabes salary while giving up 2 spots in a great draft and two young players who both have alot of promise? If its true that TOR is desperate to get rid of Mccabes salary and he'll only waive his NTC to come to the islanders, then the isles are in a much better position to haggle here....the only way this deal is even fathomable is if the leafs throw in a good young player or prospect...
any thoughts?
I didn't hear that rumor, and Snow is not that stupid. This is the product of an overzealous media in Toronto that's convinced itself the Islanders will jump to solve the Leafs' contract issues. I might trade Tambellini and Gervais for JUST McCabe and the 7th pick, if Toronto threw in another pick, but no way in hell is that even a remote possibility. Don't concern yourself with that for one second.
please dont scare me with nonsense like that.....the isles will NEVER do that, and if they trade two kids for an old, declining overpaid guy who's team is aching to get rid of him, and swap spots in the draft, that will be it for me....i cant take anymore stupidity by my favorite team....that would be all she wrote...
draft filatov if hes there, if not trade down and take wilson...it seems simple to me, but we will mess it up....we need a first line...we have 3 third lines and a 4th line right now....
let me give you all a scenerio...Tell me I am wrong.....You are a Free Agent and the Mets and ANY OTHER TEAM that spends money, offer you the same amount of money....Would you want to come play for this team???
Omar has not only ruined the Farm, hired Old men, not added to the bullpen, no bench, highest paid team, etc.......He has now a made the back office look poor as well.
ANYONE ELSE SICK OF IT !!!!
SCREAM FROM THE RAFTERS !!! FIRE OMAR FIRE OAMR FIRE OMAR.....and SELL THE TEAM !!! Wilpons are morons also!
ooops..wrong blog
dude, on this blog its fire snow..lay off the crack
Okposo:
I think Snow's got one more half season before the chants really start. He can make is stock rise by making some smart drafting choices and surprising us during free agency. If those things don't happen I will join the call earlier :)
In no way will Snow trade anything of value for McCabe - at best he is a salary dump - the leafs just wants someone to take on his salary:
D - McCabe
08 - 3rd round pick
08- 5th round pick
for
C- Bates
D- A. Johnson
C/W - Hilbert
I am posting this link here so you can see a video of Filatov on Hockeybuzz. I am not posting this because of the headline that states McCabe to Isles (e4).
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=15746
This kid Filatov has break away speed. He blew by guys as if they were standing still. Pretty exciting, I have my fingers crossed, it sure would be nice to watch a highly skilled player like that on a nightly basis.
My feeling is this: I am on board with the rebild and don't expect things to come together overnight. But watching a kid like this play would be exciting and it would be alot easier to accept the growing pains that come with a rebuild.
Washington with Ovechkin, hey they have stunk up until this year, but it was still great to watch Ovechkin play everynight. Pitt with Crosby and Malkin, great to watch those kids play.
I we get McCabe the cap hit is 5 million for the next 3 years - he is not worth it unless we offset his money with giving back guys like Bates who is making 1.3 this year.
19 Isles just called me and said there is a new embarrassment in NY regarding NHL hockey, and this time it's not the Islanders.
Apparently the NHL wants to kick the Rangers owners out of the league. I'm going to check this out.
Anyone here anything?
I actually posted this on the Rangers blog earlier to get their thoughts but the policy over there is that no one can post pretty much:
http://sports.espn.go.com/nhl/news/story?id=3452292
Yes, it stems from the fact that the Rangers don't like the idea of the NHL taking over the branding of team websites. The Rangers or Dolans feel that this inhibits them from making money off of the site and filed an anti-trust lawsuit agains the league. Meanwhile no other team has had a problem with it.
I wouldn't mind having McCabe on the team and the cap hit as long as we receive something valuable in return, because Snow is right that a team's cap space is a valuable commodity and he will most likely not come back to the Leafs anyway. I wouldn't mind giving Hilbert and Bates away, it would open up a few more roster spots. Would also be kind of fun to see McCabe and Witt paired together.
Given the cap space and the fact that Toronto is a conference rival, I would only take McCabe's contract at a price so high it borders on extortion, something like one of our 2nd rounders for McCabe and their 1st.
It won't happen, but why should we give them any payroll flexibility? The Islanders are not just a dump for other teams' unwanted players.
The Rangers made money off their web site. Now they don't since the league took it over. They made money because their fans are interested in their team and they buy merchandise, tickets etc. On the other hand, nobody goes to Islander games. They don't sell much merchandise. So why would they care if the league controls their web site. Nobody even goes to their web site, LOL.
Nick, I agree that cap space is a commodity and the Isles should get value for it. The other option is to wait until Toronto buys him out and he hits the open market.
Can't wait to see how this thing plays out tomorrow.
Not that this is earth shattering news but our favorite unreliable insider site Hockey Buzz is reporting that McCabe has waived his no movement clause for the Isles.
The other interesting post is a potential deal between LA and Ottawa with Ottawa giving up Spezza and their #1 (#18 overall) for Cammalleri and the Kings #1 (#2 overall). This is the most ludicrous trade for LA. Why give up a young player in Cammalleri and a potential franchise defensemen for Spezza and a low first rounder. That trade makes no sense to me.
I never liked that Hockey Buzz site, it seems to post these rumors that never ever pan out. I think they just troll message boards and pick up on stuff we write.
It's true that defense wins championships, but the Isles brass will be deluding themselves if they think that is in the cards over the next 2 to 3 years.
You draft a guy like Filatov that brings butts to the seats and keeps the organization afloat, then slowly work on bringing more to the blueline.
Keep in mind Campoli, Hillen, and Gervais are still young, Martinek and Witt have a good 3-5 years left in them, and then someone like Meyer who could pan out as well.
I'd take the sniper with the first pick, then try to find the diamond D-man with the next few. Martinek was what? A seventh rounder?
The Isles have good offense in the system as well, with Okposo, Bergenheim, Nielsen, and a few others figuring to be contributors within the next 3 years.
This team needs someone that Yashin was not, that Satan didn't quite achieve, and that they haven't seen since Palffy. An explosive forward who you pay to see play.
Take Filatov if he is available!
If we do end up drafting Filatov, what kind of compensation will his present team be looking for?
Garth...this is a no-brainer. Take Filatov.
And keep McCabe far, far away from my team.
Grab Filatov at 5 and try and draft Petrov in 2nd round if he is available.
Well Mick, the whole point is that Hockeybuzz is a rumor site. They could be true, they could not be true. However, regardless, they can hide behind saying "well, it was a rumor" and so many trades that are proposed never happen. I go to that site for the bloggers and check the rumors when I need a laugh.
coming from an islander fan... you guys are pathetic. can't you just go through one day without whining and complaining? a bunch of freaking babies. i click on this hoping for intelligent posts dissecting greg's story or the draft... and not mostly posts of anticipating the worst, we always make bad choices... blah blah blah. guess which i got? part of me hopes wang is turned down for the new building and moves the team... would love to see you morons in misery. and yes... i am a true die hard isles fan... not a rangers troll.
I think its a no brainer to get Filatov - he is a star, he is fluent in english and according to scouts defies being a "typical russian" - he is a hard worker and someone the fans would pay to see. oh yeah and he also knows how to put the puck in the net. Now to McCabe and Yashin - i have 0 faith in Garth going out and doing anything in the free agent market. He is resigned to the fact that no one wants to come here after being burned last year. I think Yashin can help us - from me to any isles fan who is against yashin - yes he was inconsistant - but we are PAYING HIM ANYWAY - our leading scorer last year had 49 points - that is embarassing - he would be our leading scorer and wouldnt have to worry about being a captain. If we get Filatov they could play together - Yash has always liked playing with fellow Russians. I also think McCabe cant hurt and we can get him w/o giving up the 5th pick. Tamby isnt a Nolan player and will never thrive here unfortunately - i love his talent and he is a good guy but wont get more than 12 minutes a game on this team with Teddy behind the bench so they shoudl package him and picks or somebody else for a veteran scorer or power play qb. THe sad part is i bet our mis-led management wont do anything that either i or any of you want - they will find a way to have us saying What the...
Hey Tom... You're right...we have no reason to fear the worst since this organization has been run properly for the last 15 years... But in a way I'm with you... Its time to live in the now..let's move forward.
I'm personally hoping for Filatov or Wilson in that order. I have a feeling either one will be gold! If anyone saw "Islanders Illustrated" yesterday and saw the images of filitov from the combine then you saw how ripped this guys is... He'll be ok in the NHL after he adjusts to our game....
Rumor has it that the Isles are very high on another Dane, Mikkel Boddeker. If Filatov is gone, do not be surpised if they grab him at #5. This guy had a great memorial cup tourney and is not far removed from the NHL.
I sure hope they go Offense.
I think we have adequate D right now, and it is easier to build a solid D with UFA's than to get a Star Forward.
Our problem has been putting the puck in the net, we need to go Filatov/Wilson with #5 and our 1st 2nd round pick needs to be a compliment offensively.
Keep Campoli and Gervais.
I would take McCabe and Toronto's #1 for our 2 2nd rounds, if only they would go for it. LOL