Not for nothing, but I somehow stumbled into a 9-3 record when it comes to picking the winners for the last two UFC cards.
I know...I'm getting the certificate framed this weekend.
But seriously...UFC 68 is just over a week away.
So here are some predictions for the top fights on the card. Feel free to add your picks to the comments page. Thanks for reading.
Tim Sylvia vs. Randy Couture (Heavyweight championship)
It's tough to call Randy Couture an underdog, but for this fight, he is.
Couture is 43 years old, and is giving six inches in height and about 25-30 pounds in weight to the 30-year-old champion. Obviously, with reach a factor, Couture needs to utilize his wrestling and in Couture's words "get underneath his hands" to be effective. Sylvia has to keep his distance, and keep improving on that solid takedown defense he showed against Jeff Monson during his last title defense.
Call me sentimental, but after three rounds of failed single and double-leg takedown attempts, I say Couture's superior wrestling and Rocky-type heart earn him a referee stoppage win in the fourth round. At 43, maybe Couture DOES have something "left in the basement?"
Chris Lytle vs. Matt Hughes (Welterweight)
This one depends on one thing.
Are we going to see stand-up fighter Matt Hughes? The one who lost the welterweight championship to Georges St. Pierre at UFC 65 last November. The one that tries to go strike-for-strike.
If so, Lytle has a shot.
If Ground-and-pound/hope-he-doesn't-make-weight Matt Hughes shows up, there's no one at 170 that can beat him.
People forget so quickly how Hughes dominated this weight class since 2001. I didn't.
Nothing against Lytle, he's a good fighter, but Hughes is future Hall-of-famer. If Lytle survives the first round, Hughes earns the TKO early in the second, making that Hughes/St. Pierre III fight all the more interesting.
Rich Franklin vs. Jason MacDonald (Middleweight)
Has Franklin recovered from his last fight? -- That's the question.
We're talking about a fighter that was 7-0 in the UFC before that Anderson Silva fight. A fighter that had a 22-1 overall mixed martial arts record before that fight. It will be interesting to see his resiliency after that Silva beating, but the Cincinnati native will have the "home-cage" advantage if that's even a phrase.
MacDonald has two impressive wins in the UFC, one against Ed Herman and one against Chris Leben. His star might be ascending. He fights confidently, and has a nice arsenal of submissions.
Could this be the night of the comeback? (Couture, Hughes, Franklin)
Almost. MacDonald with an armbar submission win in the second round.
Jason Lambert vs. Renato Sobral (Light-heavyweight)
I always enjoy watching Sobral fight because he's always looking for submissions. Sobral was knocked out by Liddell in his last fight, but there are plenty of light-heavyweights that you can fit into that sentence. Liddell is Liddell.
Lambert lost to Rashad Evans last September, but was 3-0 in the UFC before that. I say Sobral catches Lambert in an uncomfortable heel hook in the third round and earns the submission victory.
Comments (23)
Hughes will totaly dominate this fight he just ad a reality check against GSP he will do what he does best wich his ground and pound him til the ref stops it in the 1st round . But even after that no matter what hughes show up against gsp he will lose,that man will not lose the belt til hes very unlucky or retires.
Youz trippin big dog. Referee stopage in favor of Couture after 3 rounds of unsuccessful takedown attempts? I guess you're envisioning Sylvia's hands tied behind his back. I'm thinkin Sylvia winning by knockout in the 3rd, Hughes in a decision, Franklin knockout win in the 2nd, and fully agree with your analysis of the Sobral/Lambert contest. But what about the most entertainign fight of the night.... McFedries/Kampmann? How can ya not love McFedries after his UFC debut against Alessio Sakara. He's a total brawler and that was the best ring interview i've seen.
I think that you had some interesting points but if I see any of Miletich fighters losing it will be Hughes. I love Randy but if he dosent have the correct cardio that a lot of older fighters lose Big Timmy KO in the fourth. Franklin will be fighting with a wrath and MacDonald will lose G n P, Franklin is a different class of fighter from Leban and Herman.
Sylvia vs. Couture: Sylvia has only faced one "real" opponent in his rise to champion - Arlovski. Couture has all the skills to take the belt, however he is getting older and has in the past had trouble dealing with larger opponents. This fight is Sylvia's to lose which I say he does in the fourth round due to a rear naked choke.
Lytle vs. Hughes: Hughes has this one in the bag, even if he does dabble in the stand up game. It will end with a Hughes take-down and ground-n-pound stoppage in the first round.
Franklin vs. MacDonald: MacDonald has some good ground skills but is seriously lacking in the stand-up game. Franklin has the advantage in the stand-up and power categories. Franklin KO with an overhand right in the 3rd.
Lambert vs. Sobral: Sobral will submit Lambert quickly. My guess is a triangle choke early in the 2nd.
I really respect your call on teh Franklin vs Macdonald fight. Macdonald has been red hot and Franklin will likly not be 100% after silvas thrashing of him. I've got a gut feeling Macdonald is goinging to win via submisson. Do you think Heath will show us his former Pride like style vs Imes?
I think you have 2 picks correct in the Sobral and Hughes fights.
Macdonald has 2 wins in a row but neither of his opponents are as skilled and rounded as Franklin. Franlin is an A grade fighter. Herman and Leban are B fighters at best and I think MacDonald falls in that category easily as well. Look for Franklin to come back very very strong. I do think he will be smart and feel out Macdonald early. I can't see him pushing the pace initially but I expect him to pore it on late. One thing we haven't seen much of late from Rich is his ground game since he hasn't needed it. However if MacDonald trys to shoot I see Franklin stuffing him and forcing MacDonald to fight Rich's game which will be standing up.
The one thing I really don't get is your prediction of Couture winning. Your saying he is going to be stuffed all day long from Sylvia yet get a stoppage? If Sylvia sprawls (which he should do easily) he will stuff and pick Couture apart with his stand up. I agree 100 percent with your Huges / Lytle prediction. Also nice blog!
Jason (Xact Records)
Webmaster For UFC fighter Marcus "The Irish Handgrenade" Davis
I think Couture will win, but not as stated. Monson did well against Sylvia, for awhile. Couture will do better than Monson and take the advantages he did not. Turn this fight into a fight in a phone booth and 6'8" doesn't mean as much. Hopefully Sylvia has really turned the fire on if he wants to win.
As far as Franklin losing to MacDonald via submission, it's possible but I don't think it will happen. Franklin was sick and was having trouble breathing when he fought Silva, those knees sure didn't help him. Franklin is a very well rounded fighter and he can take hits. MacDonald has not proven himself to be a good striker, he was losing to Leben until he caught him in the guillotine in my opinion. Franklin has not only experience from fighting but he'll have experience guiding him from his corner. I've heard MacDonald has been training with Greg Jackson, and those folks seem to be doing well. Franklin, however, will have a fire in his belly. My prediction is a first round KO by Franklin, not as good as the one with Quarry though.
Lambert w/ a cut late in the 2nd round or early in the 3rd is how that one will go
yeah i want couture to win but i dont see it happening sylvia is too big and has better hands and reach. as for hughes, he will probabl beat lytle but he wont ever get his title back from gsp. i also see franklin winning but not in a decisive fashion he is not too much better than leben people underestimate leben he is at the top of that class but NOBODY can touch silva right now there is no competition for him
Randy/Tim descision Tim
Matt/Chris Matt 1strnd gandp
Franklin 2nd rnd refs stoppage
I see Sylvia planting a shin upside Randy's head in about the 3rd which will lead to a KO. I agree with you on Hughes and Sobral. I think Rich Franklin will be on a mission, and would hate to be the poor fool who has to face him. That being said it seems to really be a "so what" win for both Hughes and Franklin. The only thing of any value to them is a title and unless GSP suddenly forgets how to sprawl, Hughes will never beat him. As for Franklin Vs. Silva II, Rich better figure out how to get him to the ground and good luck even from there.
Very Good Predictions..
I think you people are underestimating Jason McDonald. His last two fighs have ended very fast and smooth. Chris Leban wanted to stand up and was quickly taken down and quickly finished. (but Leban does suck)
And beat Herman at his own game, and you cant say that Herman is not good on the ground. As for the fight with Franklin I say should be a fairly quick fight McDonald win by submission (probably by grabbing an arm)
Remember McDonald is representing CANADA!!!!
First off, to naturalist469, much appreciated shout out to McFedries. That most likely will be the fight of the night.
To the man responsable for the blog, also a good call. However, I have to disagree with you on the main event at least. If you read your 2nd paragraph over again that will tell you who the winner will be. I have a huge respect for Couture, but I think this one will prove to be a little too much for him at post prime. Also you can't forget that Lytle can hold his own on the ground. I don't really disagree with the prediction, but I don't think anyone is giving Lytle the respect he deserves. And finally, oddly enough I don't disagree with the Franklin/McDonald fight. I've got much love for Franklin, but for some reason I suspect another upset in his future. Babalou's fight, couldn't agree more.
Thank you for saying what no one else is saying. Rich Franklin can lose to Jason McDonald. MacDonald has great stand up and has Franklin's kryptonite... the clinch. So agree with your pick... but I say MacDonald in round 2 tko strikes
After McDonald's last two fights I said I wouldn't count him out of a fight again, but Franklin's on another level than Leben and Herman. McDonald's got heart and is willing to stand up but his stand up just isn't that good and I don't see him being able to get the fight to stay on the ground. Franklin with a first or second round KO
Sylvia's an underrated champ and he'll be ready for this fight. I don't think Couture's gonna be to get past that reach advantage to do enough damage. Sylvia fourth round KO
agreed with everything except the Franklin bit. MacDonald did submit Chris leben but you forgot how much trouble he was having with the stand up aspect. That being said Franklin is light years ahead of leben in the striking game and that gives him a big advantage. i also don't see Franklin making a big enough mistake and allowing MacDonald to submit him. The only chance MacDonald has is if Franklin is still rattled from the Silva fight and doesn't lay it on. otherwise i see Franklin winning by KO late first or early second round. As for Hughes (my favorite fighter in MMA) he had a reality check with the Pierre fight. His stand up isn't the best. i personally think he was overconfident and wanted to explore his striking capabilities on Pierre and if that didn't work he could just resort to his ground and pound technique. only trouble was Pierre caught him b4 Hughes could begin plan B. I see lytle as having no chance in this fight. the only reason he's fighting Hughes is to abolish the "If" factor of which i refer to the Serra/lytle fight (i was rooting for Serra but lytlye won IMO) once Serra losses to Pierre (Of which i have no doubt will happen) people will begin to wonder what lytle could have done had he won. that frame of mind will be brushed away when Hughes TKO's lytle mid second. Hughes mad a mistake once with his stand up, he won't make it again. IMO Hughes will get the belt back b4 the end of the year (barring injury to Pierre which isn't rare) and then begin his middleweight contest. As for the Main event i like both competitors a lot but I'm going with couture via Decision after a 5 round war.
Tim Sylvia vs. Randy Couture
I love Randy, even made an action figure of him before, but I think Sylvia is under a lot of pressure to perform and will most likely win with a dirty looking knock out.
Chris Lytle vs. Matt Hughes
Chris Lytle is an excellent fighter but I don't think he pushes the fight as much as he should, I think Hughes will keep him down.
Rich Franklin vs. Jason MacDonald
Rich Franklin looked kind of like a ragdoll in his last bout, He has a lot to prove to himself in this fight, he will want to make Jason feel the same way he did against Silva. Jason MacDonald is very smart fighter, for some reason I see him pulling through a victory.
Jason Lambert vs. Renato Sobral
I think Sobral is going to do something cool in this match, He will win!
I just have to add..
Dana, Please Make UFC action figures I will design them for you!! WILL WORK FOR UFC TIX! And please make new video-games the last ones sucked big time, they need to be changed completely & more in depth.
Tim wins by tko in round 2. Franklin wins by knockout in round 1, Hughs wins by rear naked chocke in round 3, and Sobral wins hands down by subbmission. How can you pick Randy over Tim, Tim is 30, and will mess-up Colture
wow man wayyyyy off, i on the other hand am 11-1 in my last 4 paper views in picks, first of all yes coture wins, matt hughes destroys lytle franklin knocks out macdonald EASY, and sobral dominates that chump.
There is no way in hell Tim is loosing his belt to Randy!!!!! Tim Knocks him out with a kick to the head in the 2nd or 3rd sry i love Randy but man he's in for a beating
1.Randy to avoid punches,takedown and rear naked choke in the third. 2.Lytle is a GSP clone,tough fight for matt but he wins tko in the third. 3.Rich "ACE" Franklin(my favorite fighter in mma)will dominate and ko him in the second after a cautious first round. read em and weap! I will like to see the N.Y. Badass back in the UFC, he is looking very good in Pride.
randy couture is going to lose i am a randy couture fan but he is just to old and tim slyvia has a good takedown defense.i would be really happy if randy couture won though
I love looking over all the wrong couture v sylvia predictions. good stuff fellas