Can Randy do it again? How will St. Pierre rebound? Will Huerta keep up this pace? Can anyone stop Stevenson at 155? When will Kendall Grove get his title shot? Can "Babalu" and Frank Mir rebound from their most recent losses?
There are many questions, and Fightin' Words will do its best to answer all of them.
UFC 74 could quite possibly be the card of the year, and that's saying a lot after a dynamic year for the UFC. Don't think so? Let's look at the card:
Randy Couture vs. Gabriel Gonzaga -- Heavyweight championship
Randy is a walking inspiration. His work ethic, his dedication and the gentlemenly manner in which he conducts himself during interviews with the press, makes him a fan favorite. But at 44 years old, can Couture (15-8, 12-5 UFC) shock the mixed martial arts world once again like he did against Tim Sylvia? I think he can, and it's all going to come down to conditioning and attrition.
Gabriel Gonzaga is a bad dude. I had a chance to watch this Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion work out in Manhattan last month. He has ridiculous jitsu, a great crew of coaches and fighters to train with (Team Link) and everytime he kicked the pads, the sound resonated throughout the gym.
But Gonzaga (8-1, 4-0 UFC) has never been three complete rounds in the UFC. Yes, he's won impressively in all four of his UFC fights, but it's Rounds 4 and 5 that make a championship match different. Because of Gonzaga's unbelievable knockout against Mirko "Cro Cop" Filipovic in his last fight, I think Couture will respect Gonzaga's standup in the same way Gonzaga will respect Couture's after the Sylvia match. Gonzaga's jitsu will neutralize Couture's wrestling, but if Gonzaga doesn't get Couture out of there in the early rounds, Couture wins by decision.
Josh Koscheck vs. Georges St. Pierre
I was a mixed martial arts fan before I was a journalist, so the fan side of me cannot wait to see this one.
This one could be everything the Koscheck/Diego Sanchez match should've been. St. Pierre will not sit back, St. Pierre will engage, and it will be a true test to see if Koscheck (11-1, 7-1 UFC) has reached that upper echelon with his standup game. With both of these fighters known for their condiitioning and athleticism, it's a shame this one is only three rounds. Koscheck should be riding a wave of confidence after beating the previously undefeated Sanchez, but can St. Pierre (13-2, 7-2 UFC) rebound from that Matt Serra loss? I think he will. I think that loss will make him fight loosely once again, just like he did against Matt Hughes. It's reminds me of the same relief a pitcher feels when he loses a no-hitter; yeah there's a bad taste but now you can just focus on your game and let the thought of perfection go. St. Pierre wins by decision.
Roger Huerta vs. Alberto Crane
After a match-of-the-year-type fight with Leonard Garcia at UFC 69 and a subsequent Sports Illustrated cover, Roger Huerta's star became very bright, very fast. Crane is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion who is undefeated in eight MMA fights, but it will be his first time in The Octagon. Huerta (20-1-1, 4-0 UFC) in on the fast track to a title shot and I don't think Crane will slow his rise. His fast-paced attack will prove to be too much for Crane. Huerta earns a TKO win in the second round.
Kurt Pellegrino vs. Joe Stevenson
Like I said a few blogs ago, these two matches should've been switched.
Huerta vs. Stevenson -- Now there's a No. 1 contender matchup for the lightweight belt (with all due respect to BJ Penn who, in my opinion, is a perpetual contender for both the welterweight and the lightweight belt). But Stevenson drew Pellegrino (16-2, 2-1 UFC), who is coming off two impressive first-round submissions against Junior Assuncao and Nate Mohr, respectively. Since dropping down to 155, Stevenson (32-7, 4-1 UFC) looks unstoppable. It's too bad Kenny Florian already has a match lined up for September because I'd like to see a KenFlo/Penn match, then a Huerta/Stevenson match. Winners meet in the final for the lightweight belt, which could become vacant depending on Sean Sherk's appeal.
Anyway, back to the Stevenson/Pellegrino match. Both of these fighters have excellent jiu-jitsu and wrestling, but Stevenson's physical strength will be the difference. Stevenson stays on top for most of the fight, gets caught in Pellegrino's guard for a while, but wins with a third-round submission.
Patrick Cote vs. Kendall Grove
Grove is another rising star in the UFC, but he'll need to beat a top-tier middleweight (i.e. Rich Franklin, Yushin Okami) to be considered a top contender. Cote (11-4, 1-4 UFC) rebounded from four straight UFC loses with a decision victory against Scott Smith at UFC 67 in his last match. If Grove (10-3, 3-0 UFC) can get by Cote and then beat a top contender, he'd definitely be ready for a title shot. At 24 though, besides having plenty of talent, he also has plenty of time. Grove by TKO in the third round.
Renato "Babalu" Sobral vs. David Heath
One of the more exciting submission fighters to watch, it seems like Babalu (27-7, 5-4 UFC) can end a match from any position. He's got back-to-back losses to Chuck Liddell and Jason Lambert, but I think he'll bounce back against a tough David Heath (9-1, 2-1 UFC). Babalu gets to Heath's back, earns the second-round submission victory and climbs his way back up the light heavyweight ladder.
Ryan Jensen vs. Thales Leites
Leites (10-1, 2-1 UFC) is riding a two-fight win streak and takes on Ryan Jensen (11-1), who is making his UFC debut. Leites improves the win streak to three with a first-round submission.
Frank Mir vs. Antoni Hardonk
After having his heavyweight title taken away because he was unable to defend the belt due to a motorcycle accident in 2004, Mir has been 1-2 in the UFC and is trying to recapture the magic that he had at the start of what looked like a brilliant career. Hardonk (5-3) is 1-1 in the UFC, losing his last match to Justin McCully, who punished Hardonk from Hardonk's guard in a lackluster match. If Mir (9-3, 7-3 UFC) can string together a few wins, then this heavyweight division, with the addition of Cro Cop and Antonio "Minotauro" Nogueira, will get a bit more interesting. Mir earns a second-round submission win.
Clay Guida vs. Marcus Aurelio
With his ‘80s rocker hair, I'd believe someone if they told me Clay Guida played lead guitar in a Journey cover band. Just messing around, Clay. Guida (21-5, 1-2 UFC) brings a great-level of intensity to each one of his matches and has been fun to watch in the Octagon. After an impressive submission victory in his debut against Justin James, he's dropped two decisions to Din Thomas and Tyson Griffin, respectively. Aurelio (14-4) is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt making his Octagon debut.
"Don't stop believing" -- Guida wins a unanimous decision.
Fightin' Words readers: Who do you think will win these matches?